S&P Measured-Move ?

[waggie945]

Spoke too soon, with the old 3:50PM "sell program" going into the bell for month end.

"Sell in May and Go Away"?

Not in an Election year.

15 out of 18 trades have been profitable ( 83% ) and the return has been 154%.

Non-Election years saw 21 winning trades out of 57 ( 36% profitable ) with a return of -68%.

Just the facts Maam, just the FACTS!

 

[waggie945]

The Bradley failed miserably last July, as well as with some other dates. I'd rather bet on an upcoming 54 TD cycle on May 13th.

As for P-2's number of days from the top, you might want to recheck where he believes was the top, unless you have no problem trading off of other people's false premises.

Feb. 17th was the TOP in the SPX at 1156.99, and not 1156.85 on March 5th as P2 says.

Good Luck.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from EBOAH:

Well, it certainly caught the January 26th, March 5th and April 27th highs in the S&P 500 this year! Not to mention signaling the major turning point on March 12th 2003!!!


I'd say it's fairly Accurate so far this year!

Opps, 1103.75 low!!!!



PS Maybe P2 has something with this 41 days from high thing in the Market, eh! Look out Monday!

:eek: :eek: :eek:

I'm preparing for a reversal day early next week (trading buy); perhaps Monday. Gap on NDX will likely fill... 200 day looks like st target1. I'm sure there are many others expecting the same or similar.

just mho...

But nothing upside or downside would surprise me anymore with computers and hedge funds running the 'free' markets.

Gotta figure there is interest in marking things higher for better shorting opportunities.


IcE

 

[EBOAH]

Quote from waggie945:

The Bradley failed miserably last July, as well as with some other dates. I'd rather bet on an upcoming 54 TD cycle on May 13th.

As for P-2's number of days from the top, you might want to recheck where he believes was the top, unless you have no problem trading off of other people's false premises.

Feb. 17th was the TOP in the SPX at 1156.99, and not 1156.85 on March 5th as P2 says.

Good Luck.

****

No I disagree, the Bradley didn't fail miserably as you say! The Dates are turning points not specific highs or lows. The BRadley caught minor low on June 30th or minor high on July 8th and caught the minor high on Sept 18th and low of Oct 24th!!!

Anyway, the Bradley Indicator is just one of the several tools in the bag!

Use it however you wish!

 

[waggie945]

Agreed.

 

[waggie945]

( april 5th high ) 2079.12 - 1973.25 ( april 21st low ) = 105.87

105.87 x 1.382 = 146.31 pts.

( april 26th high ) 2059.08 - 146.31 = 1912.77

Some food for thought over the Weekend!

 

[Kicking]

So you mean it's the end of the down move? It's kind of an unconventional way to use measured move in the S&P at least, usually you use it with a consolidation like flags, pennants etc. Here there was no real consolidation. Your calculation with the comp is a a fibo extension I think if you want to use the proper term. I forget to look at those , are you finding it very accurate? Anyway I don't make targets, don't believe in it. In my experience at least usually when the market reaches your target, it keeps going, when you think it should go there it doesnt and reverse!

 

[waggie945]

It is just a simple A-B-C "classic" measured-move.
It is not complex, just very simple and you use various fib extensions of the "C" in order to give yourself some sort of a parameter for a target.

Nothing is written in stone.
But at some point you have to use a methodology that you believe in and allows you a certain confidence factor in pulling the trigger and making a trading decision. Otherwise, you can just sit there looking at a myriad of technical indicators and never pull the trigger.

I'm in the "Keep It Simple Stupid" camp and it works pretty well for me.

Have a nice Weekend.
Cheers!