S&P looks good to a new high
- Thread starter Romeo
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so many sectors took the job numbers in stride and so many of the high flyers still seem to high flying(indeed going parabolic on increasing volume) without any kind of real pull back(in fact the pull backs are getting shorter and more shallow). Also SP breakout occurred on better than average vol.
Basically the market looks like it wants to keep going here.
Only positions I currently have on are a very small short (5 nq @1371) that I will get stopped out of if the NQ hits a new short term high. And long gold (20 yg@368). Did you read recently that the World Bank predicted that gold was going under $300, that gave me a laugh!
I still think that we may get a kind of blow off top and then come back down in dramatic fashion (lately it seems that the real suckers have started to come back to the market on the long side while the more savvy investors are just starting to take profits). How high we will go on the SP? 1050? 1075? I don't know but will be looking for high flyers to start failing and market breadth deterioration along with inverse action in the $ and the Bonds amongst other things to tip me off as to when might be a good time to start to put out a full position to the short side.
The change could happen within a day though it is more likely to occur over a series of days, not weeks. Though, for all I know we may have to wait for next year before that happens (I know it isn't much help but I will know it when I see it and I am not seeing it yet). One thing I do know, the higher the market goes the better the shorting opportunity will be and the more severe the break. While that will be graet in the short run it may also be the worst thing that could happen for traders in terms of long term trading opportunities as there will be a lot of people who will lose their faith in the market for a long time if we have another big break.
From what I gather from your posts Romeo you play the short side by selling calls and go long by selling puts. While you have obviously made out very nicely with your good calls this year you have more guts than I do (and probably a significantly bigger bank roll as I assume they you keep selling higher strikes as the market moves up). I can't take sitting through the draw down that such a strategy can entail.
My question to you is do you think we will see the SP break significantly below the 960 level again this year(or early next) or even retest that level?
Basically the market looks like it wants to keep going here.
Only positions I currently have on are a very small short (5 nq @1371) that I will get stopped out of if the NQ hits a new short term high. And long gold (20 yg@368). Did you read recently that the World Bank predicted that gold was going under $300, that gave me a laugh!
I still think that we may get a kind of blow off top and then come back down in dramatic fashion (lately it seems that the real suckers have started to come back to the market on the long side while the more savvy investors are just starting to take profits). How high we will go on the SP? 1050? 1075? I don't know but will be looking for high flyers to start failing and market breadth deterioration along with inverse action in the $ and the Bonds amongst other things to tip me off as to when might be a good time to start to put out a full position to the short side.
The change could happen within a day though it is more likely to occur over a series of days, not weeks. Though, for all I know we may have to wait for next year before that happens (I know it isn't much help but I will know it when I see it and I am not seeing it yet). One thing I do know, the higher the market goes the better the shorting opportunity will be and the more severe the break. While that will be graet in the short run it may also be the worst thing that could happen for traders in terms of long term trading opportunities as there will be a lot of people who will lose their faith in the market for a long time if we have another big break.
From what I gather from your posts Romeo you play the short side by selling calls and go long by selling puts. While you have obviously made out very nicely with your good calls this year you have more guts than I do (and probably a significantly bigger bank roll as I assume they you keep selling higher strikes as the market moves up). I can't take sitting through the draw down that such a strategy can entail.
My question to you is do you think we will see the SP break significantly below the 960 level again this year(or early next) or even retest that level?
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