S&P looks good to a new high
- Thread starter Romeo
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Yeah, so far so good.
Looking up more than down, at this point.
Looking up more than down, at this point.
Well, I don't know about a new high....but it will be down for the week...on next Friday's close (08/22/03)
Michael B.
Michael B.
Yes, very near term. Just a mild new high, enough to wash out some stops etc. I still see 1025 or so. I am still looking for a decline.
The contrary nature of the above poll is there, and it seems as though people migrate towards the threads they agree with in principle, and vote that way as well.
IMHO, this market is very similar to the market we had last December. The volume, structure, lack of momentum, etc are very similar to what we saw in the middle to end of December, just prior to the false break higher in early-mid January.
Case in point, two weeks ago the SPX broke lower below the 50D MA, the VIX spiked to 25 and then over the next 5-7 sessions, the market traded straight up on the lowest volume since last December. It tells me there is not enough big money flows to push the markets beyond the breakout levels and that the "anti" players are just trapping breaks up and down.
The 300lb gorilla, however, is how this bond/equity relationship plays out going forward. RIght now, it appears that the collapse in bonds is going to have a delayed effect. But as quite a few people have pointed out, the bond market collapsed in 1987 on a similar timeline. Regardless of the macro implications of the bond/stock relationship, I think this clearly demonstrates how illiquid these markets become once they break major S/R. It seems the one way flows do not get absorbed as easily these days and that everyone piles on now more than ever.
Case in point, two weeks ago the SPX broke lower below the 50D MA, the VIX spiked to 25 and then over the next 5-7 sessions, the market traded straight up on the lowest volume since last December. It tells me there is not enough big money flows to push the markets beyond the breakout levels and that the "anti" players are just trapping breaks up and down.
The 300lb gorilla, however, is how this bond/equity relationship plays out going forward. RIght now, it appears that the collapse in bonds is going to have a delayed effect. But as quite a few people have pointed out, the bond market collapsed in 1987 on a similar timeline. Regardless of the macro implications of the bond/stock relationship, I think this clearly demonstrates how illiquid these markets become once they break major S/R. It seems the one way flows do not get absorbed as easily these days and that everyone piles on now more than ever.
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