S&P looks good to a new high

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Quote from iceman1:

that is my plan...

went into mucho cash recently... awaiting what I believe will be some great trading opportunities on SPX and NDX. But "hoping" we correct more (like to at least the 200 day ema) so we can launch from lower levels..... and establish some good options positions. Evern a thrust below those levels would be nice.

A large portion of August/September/October... for all the years I've been in the markets, has always been bearish... hard to figure this one being different. But it ain't looking like any large correction on the horizon.

And that's what worries me! (and others)

SPX hasn't exactly done much since late June.. and I recall an ET brethren saying that it looked "toppy"! :eek: But so far that so-called 'top' has not produced many downside trading profit opportunities.

I have a strangle on SPX right now.


ICe
:cool:
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I thought the S&P looked toppy in early July, and then it actually traded down alittle for a 6 week period. If you sold S&P 1005 calls, and 1025 calls in early July, and had the guts to wait a month, you would have made alot of money.

That's the power of knowing the *S&P looks toppy". You know it won't go higher than a certain number, and then you sell the premium. I cleaned up on it.
 
Quote from rawman74:

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/spxtop.htm
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Wow! Thanks for the link. Robert Miner is saying something very similar to this right now. He has done a fairly decent job over the last 5 years. He's no Romeo :), but still...

This is going to be fun. Well except that I have had my arse handed to me this month so far, that hasn't been fun. But that is the life of a trend trader. Could we trend a little longer than the 10 moment chart please? I have kids to feed!!!

:)
 
Quote from iceman1:

SPX hasn't exactly done much since late June....I have a strangle on SPX right now.

ICe
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That is a great idea. If I knew how to do anything but get in when price crosses a moving line I would have done the same. I love that idea.
 
Quote from Romeo:



I thought the S&P looked toppy in early July, and then it actually traded down alittle for a 6 week period. If you sold S&P 1005 calls, and 1025 calls in early July, and had the guts to wait a month, you would have made alot of money.

That's the power of knowing the *S&P looks toppy". You know it won't go higher than a certain number, and then you sell the premium. I cleaned up on it.
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yep... that was one ticket

I
 
Quote from Romeo:



The only successful traders I know always re-evaluate their positions. If you stick to your conviction, and don't have the flexibility to change your mind, you're not a good trader and will certainly lose your money.

Thanks you alfonso for answering that for me intelligently.
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Romeo, I don't mean to nitpick here and I've acknowledged you made a good call and certainly changing one's mind is a sign of flexible thinking which is good. I'm just wondering how you went from thinking we wouldn't make highs for many months..... and was quite adamant about it.....to thinking new highs soon. I'd like to know how your thinking. I hope your right cause my trending method aint doin squat now.

Continued good trading to you.
 
Quote from inandlong:

That is a great idea. If I knew how to do anything but get in when price crosses a moving line I would have done the same. I love that idea.
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thnx... we'll see! We might just churn for a couple more weeks

I go from bearish to bullish on the indexes almost weekly lately.... :eek: HOWEVER, anyone who thinks this is an easy market to handicap... at this juncture.... ain't living in reality !!

Thus I have raised cash to almost 80% awaiting the next opportunity. Right now I see no real advantage to position trading the indexes (although selling otm SPX options "could" work again this cycle). I'll hold the small strangle seeing if we have a sizeable break, up or down... or, maybe leg into double credit spreads if I can catch the swings correctly. Peanuts likely.

Still looking for a late FALL breakout... higher!

ICe
:cool:
 
I'm with Iceman here. I'm mostly cash but long an OEX strangle. I think we rally a little then drop. Then repeat that until the shorts capitulate. Then the real drop will happen. It's "that" time of year. October is on the horizon.
 
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