s&p just made intermediate term top on 11/22
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
What does "just made the top" stand for, considering that it refers to the date 5 days ago?
If you don't mind my asking, I keep seeing these 'top' calls for the S&P here, and I'm just wondering what you base these calls on?
My gut feeling is that the market is going up for one reason only... there's no where else to put the money right now. Not many people are going to buy real estate, the bond rates stink, and gold is debatable as a 'standard', meaning it's no more safe than the stock market.
Only one sure thing, the dollar is weak and will only get weaker. So, where does liquidity go? Americans don't have anywhere else to put their retirement $$ besides the market, at a time where the dollar will be buying less and less.
The rest of the world can take advantage of the falling dollar to buy US companies cheaper. Mutual funds flush with cash must spend it, they can't sit on 50% cash.
How COULD this market go down? For people to want to 'take profits', they have to have a place to park those profits. Anyone sitting on cash for a few months and watching the market soaring the last few months has to be entering by now, or they're getting more depressed by the day.
I must be missing something (despite having made a hella lot of money in just the last month)... why do you think the S&P has topped?
When there's too much liquidity, and only 1 good place to put it, what would drive the prices down?
It seems to me, and I'm no specialist, that there isn't any liquidity leaving the market, it's just circulating from sector to sector, stock to stock. But there IS continual influx of new money coming in that must be spent... driving the entire market higher a little bit constantly.
Add that to the fact that a LOT of people wait til the last minute to do their annual $4K-8K for IRAs. Do this math... around 50% of the US population dumping $4K - $8K into the market at the end of the year or before April 15... meaning we will probably drive the market all the way to next April, with the usual few dips along the way due to stock rotations.
Every time I see these top calls, I have to scratch my head. What are the real life consequences for the housing crash? Who caused the housing crash? First time home buyers? No... investors did.
So what are the investors doing now? Is there another place to park the cash you took out of real estate that I don't know about? If there's a better place for money than the stock market, can someone tell me what it is?
My gut feeling is that the market is going up for one reason only... there's no where else to put the money right now. Not many people are going to buy real estate, the bond rates stink, and gold is debatable as a 'standard', meaning it's no more safe than the stock market.
Only one sure thing, the dollar is weak and will only get weaker. So, where does liquidity go? Americans don't have anywhere else to put their retirement $$ besides the market, at a time where the dollar will be buying less and less.
The rest of the world can take advantage of the falling dollar to buy US companies cheaper. Mutual funds flush with cash must spend it, they can't sit on 50% cash.
How COULD this market go down? For people to want to 'take profits', they have to have a place to park those profits. Anyone sitting on cash for a few months and watching the market soaring the last few months has to be entering by now, or they're getting more depressed by the day.
I must be missing something (despite having made a hella lot of money in just the last month)... why do you think the S&P has topped?
When there's too much liquidity, and only 1 good place to put it, what would drive the prices down?
It seems to me, and I'm no specialist, that there isn't any liquidity leaving the market, it's just circulating from sector to sector, stock to stock. But there IS continual influx of new money coming in that must be spent... driving the entire market higher a little bit constantly.
Add that to the fact that a LOT of people wait til the last minute to do their annual $4K-8K for IRAs. Do this math... around 50% of the US population dumping $4K - $8K into the market at the end of the year or before April 15... meaning we will probably drive the market all the way to next April, with the usual few dips along the way due to stock rotations.
Every time I see these top calls, I have to scratch my head. What are the real life consequences for the housing crash? Who caused the housing crash? First time home buyers? No... investors did.
So what are the investors doing now? Is there another place to park the cash you took out of real estate that I don't know about? If there's a better place for money than the stock market, can someone tell me what it is?
wrong again ?
Thanks for the easy money shorty and for once again being the most reliable contrarian on ET.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=6&pagenumber=903
Thanks for the easy money shorty and for once again being the most reliable contrarian on ET.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=6&pagenumber=903
My word is valid, My theory is every time thorn calls a top we rally, Last time he did it we ran from 1361 to 1408. Today was another easy 10. This has happened every single time except for his call for a top at 1328 but even it came after we fell 20+ points. This has gone on ever since he was rubberbird and was calling tops at 1180. You are right the more things change, the more they stay the same. Thanks for your money jack.
Quote from volente_00:
My word is valid, My theory is every time thorn calls a top we rally, Last time he did it we ran from 1361 to 1408. Today was another easy 10. This has happened every single time except for his call for a top at 1328 but even it came after we fell 20+ points. This has gone on ever since he was rubberbird and was calling tops at 1180. You are right the more things change, the more they stay the same. Thanks for your money jack.
sir, you are the king of the hindsight fill, and after the fact exit. So much so, that some might argue it's pathological.
Nope.