Not as great as this one on the day we hit 1440.
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s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1440.1
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
if i may, i would ask a newbie question. assuming thorn is correct in his call for a top here. would it make since for an old man to move 401k selections to ultra conservations funds for now? i know, its all speculation, but i've been thinking of doing this, to protect the nice profits accumulated the past year. then maybe, at some point after the correction, move back to equity based funds.
tia,
bb
tia,
bb
I would move it to money market funds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$WLSH,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]
As the chart indicates, corrections happen fast and furiously in the first two quarters and you wont see it coming. It may come in any of the months ahead, Feb, March, April, May...there might be a little upside from here, but whatever upside will be wiped out when the market corrects to the 50 week moving average.
The last formation on the chart is a broadening top or megaphone top which has only a 9 percent failure rate. Average decline of such a formation is 18 percent, highest probability decline is 10 percent. My prediction is that the Dow will be in the low 11000s in the next few months with a chance of it hitting 10500.
The chart for the Dow Jones is exactly the same as it was in 1987 when the market crashed. The market started out on an uptrend in 1987 and then there was the summer in which there was a huge dip. Then there was the sharks tooth-like formation at the end followed by the crash. People were fearing recession back then as well.
The sell-off, however, was overdone and reached over the average decline of this pattern which, as I said, the highest probability is 10 percent and the average is 18 percent. The 30% correction in 1987 was a freak of nature.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$WLSH,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]
As the chart indicates, corrections happen fast and furiously in the first two quarters and you wont see it coming. It may come in any of the months ahead, Feb, March, April, May...there might be a little upside from here, but whatever upside will be wiped out when the market corrects to the 50 week moving average.
The last formation on the chart is a broadening top or megaphone top which has only a 9 percent failure rate. Average decline of such a formation is 18 percent, highest probability decline is 10 percent. My prediction is that the Dow will be in the low 11000s in the next few months with a chance of it hitting 10500.
The chart for the Dow Jones is exactly the same as it was in 1987 when the market crashed. The market started out on an uptrend in 1987 and then there was the summer in which there was a huge dip. Then there was the sharks tooth-like formation at the end followed by the crash. People were fearing recession back then as well.
The sell-off, however, was overdone and reached over the average decline of this pattern which, as I said, the highest probability is 10 percent and the average is 18 percent. The 30% correction in 1987 was a freak of nature.
Quote from BigBubba:
if i may, i would ask a newbie question. assuming thorn is correct in his call for a top here. would it make since for an old man to move 401k selections to ultra conservations funds for now? i know, its all speculation, but i've been thinking of doing this, to protect the nice profits accumulated the past year. then maybe, at some point after the correction, move back to equity based funds.
tia,
bb
Quote from bozente_00:
Not as great as this one on the day we hit 1440.
you're absolutely right bozo, and I appreciate you remembering.
This is the comment I made on the day we hit 1440.
It's as clear as an azure sky what my sentiments were that day.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1338174#post1338174
and the folowing day this thread began. thanks bozo!
Quote from Mvic:
What is up with the homebuilders? DR Hortons CEO said that he is not seeing any signs of recovery and believes the decline is still in early stages and they report horrible results and the sector ramps with DHI up almost 8%! All the while long term rates keep climbing.
Quote from polpolik:
Perhaps this is a one last push to get the longs in before a huge drop in the next few months.
perhaps the best call made on ET in a while.
you're absolutely right bozo, and I appreciate you remembering.Quote from volente_00:
Not as great as this one on the day we hit 1440.
This is the comment I made on the day we hit 1440.
It's as clear as an azure sky what my sentiments were that day.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1338174#post1338174
and the folowing day this thread began. thanks bozo!
thornybird, you have called 20 of the last 0 tops since the S&P has moved from 1140 to 1440. Until we stop making higher highs and higher lows you will continue to be wrong.
Quote from bozente_00:
thornybird, you have called 20 of the last 0 tops..
true to bozo-form, you always fib. maybe makes you feel better?
facts are, i've called 5 intermediate term tops in the last year, and here they are:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=68940
lasted 4 months
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=79898
I was wrong
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=81509
I was wrong
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83211
lasted a month, and may be within 10 pts of an intermediate term top
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=85561
this thread, still alive
given that any intermediate term top call has about a 5%-10% chance of success,
my track record is pretty good.
I cannot compare to your stellar track record on ET:
Quote from bozente_00:
Watch those Feb 1450 calls closely thornybird as they are fixing to be in the money.
Quote from volente_00:
thornybird, you have called 20 of the last 0 tops since the S&P has moved from 1140 to 1440. Until we stop making higher highs and higher lows you will continue to be wrong.
You are pathetic. You posted links for 5 blown top calls in the last 100 point move even though I stated that there are 20 since 1140. Now post the other 15 that were wrong from 1140 to 1308. Your track record is 100% free money if one just fades your top call on the day you start the thread.
Quote from bozente_00:
You posted links for 5 blown top calls in the last 100 point move even though I stated that there are 20 since 1140.
Yeah, "you stated", problem is, you always lie.
They don't exist. Prove me wrong. Oh wait, here's the part where you hurl an insult and change the subject. Bozo, you make me laugh, except you're not trying to be funny. oops! jealousy is a bitch.
Watch it folks, here it comes, bozo's gonna attack!
The 1 lot "go for 1 point on the es" bozente is on the troll.