once again master thorn proves why he is the greatest!!
s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1431.8
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
Erie,
Grandpa always told me that a picture is worth a thousand words.
1. 1415.50, 1415.00 and then the Match at 1415.00 were the confirming oscillations of 1412.25 Prime Trending Support
2. 1434.50 was the confirming oscillation of 1435.75 Prime Trending Resistance
3. 1430.50 was the confirming oscillation of 1428.25 Prime Trending Support
4. 1442.00 was the confirming oscillation of 1444.50 Prime Trending Resistance
5. 1442.25 was the FURTHER confirming oscillation of 1443.00 which was a PRIME confirmation of 1444.50 Prime Trending Resistance
6. 1434.50 was the confirming oscillation of 1432.25 Prime Trending Support
7. Once 1432.25 was Breached a New Prime Trending Support was established
8. 1431.00, current & continuing Prime Trending Support is unconfirmed
Notice how either Divergence or Convergence occurs at each Prime Trending oscillation as well. Though these are not perfectly consistent in their creation, it does trigger a warning for a trader of a POTENTIAL reversal.
Personally I like warnings. Price is such a wonderful thing.
Quote from Longhorns:
And congrats to you for buying the top just minutes before a big Bernanke selloff...
FWIW, we ran to 1440.75 right after this signal.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H07.E&v=s
And who and their right mind would go long in the 1332 area before we ran to 1338 ?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=6&pagenumber=1095
And who would predict that the S&P would actually get to green intraday when it was trading nearly 6 points negative ?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=6&pagenumber=1096
exactly! bozo's got it all figured out. I mean, who else has 100% reward and 0% risk? Bozo the clown, that's who. If only trading the real stock market was that easy!
anyway, the fact that he brags about making a hypothetical point or 2 on the ES is pretty laughable by itself. what dollars are we talking about here? $10 or $100 LOL
Proflogic
Your grandpa must've been smart as well.....
Thanks for taking your time and effort.
erie
Guess you got spanked on the rally. Show me 20 calls a day on different threads. Show me where I say to go long at 1438, the full quote says THORN said to get long, my whole theory has been that thorn is the ultimate contrarian.
I have only posted one buy signal and it said to buy in the 1432 area. But lets get back to this thread. Thorn started this thread on 12/22 when the S&P was tradiing at 1410. What is it trading at today ?
Next week has been historically a very bullish time as Mike Burk has illustrated in the following article:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6735.htm
Mr. Burk submits:
"Since 1953 the S&P 500 (SPX) has been down only once during the week following the 3rd Friday in January during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week)."
However, the SPX on the daily chart does indeed to appear very toppy:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03402823116
There is also an entire host of companies reporting earnings and, if last week was any indication, even good reports might be treated badly.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendar.htm
The VIX on the daily chart appears to have bottomed and has been on its way up since mid-Dec.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$VIX
The put/call ratio demonstrates to me that there is too much bullishness and complacency. Furthermore, the put buyers will eventually have to buy into the market where as the call buyers must sell.
The interest rates were indeed lower in 2004, 2005 and 2006 in January then they are right now as the chart demonstrates. There is usually a spike in the interest rates at this time of year and as the channel on the chart suggests, the height of the next spike will be more pronounced.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p40700424079
The northeast weather was used as a common excuse for lower oil prices. At the end of the day on Friday, oil had spiked probably due to short covering, but also due to the colder weather. The weather report in the NYC area dictates windy conditions with a chance of flurries and temperatures in the 20-40 degree range. The majority of oil analysts feel that oil prices will inch higher next week.
This is a difficult call to make as the 50 day moving average of the SPX is still rising and getting squeezed in between the resistance at around 1430 and the rising moving average.
Due to the erradict earnings calls and overbullish sentiment as demonstrated by the put/call and VIX, I will have to respectfully submit that next week will be a high probability that this might be the second time since 1953 that the SPX has finished down. Other factors I am looking at as well are increasing interest rates and the Fed meeting that seems looming ahead on Jan 31st.
Out of all these factors, the Fed meeting will have the most pronounced effect on the market and will dictate whether a move higher is justified. In looking at all the data, it does appear the news delivered by the Fed will be negative to the markets. The bond market is already pricing in a rate hike.
Mr. Burks call last week that the market would finish lower on the 19th then it did on the 12th was very loosely correction. When looking at the Wilshire 5000, the overall market closed only a few points lower. When looking at different indexes, the market closed down (Nasdaq) or flat (S&P500).
Dr. Michael Roberts
www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6735.htm
Mr. Burk submits:
"Since 1953 the S&P 500 (SPX) has been down only once during the week following the 3rd Friday in January during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week)."
However, the SPX on the daily chart does indeed to appear very toppy:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03402823116
There is also an entire host of companies reporting earnings and, if last week was any indication, even good reports might be treated badly.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendar.htm
The VIX on the daily chart appears to have bottomed and has been on its way up since mid-Dec.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$VIX
The put/call ratio demonstrates to me that there is too much bullishness and complacency. Furthermore, the put buyers will eventually have to buy into the market where as the call buyers must sell.
The interest rates were indeed lower in 2004, 2005 and 2006 in January then they are right now as the chart demonstrates. There is usually a spike in the interest rates at this time of year and as the channel on the chart suggests, the height of the next spike will be more pronounced.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p40700424079
The northeast weather was used as a common excuse for lower oil prices. At the end of the day on Friday, oil had spiked probably due to short covering, but also due to the colder weather. The weather report in the NYC area dictates windy conditions with a chance of flurries and temperatures in the 20-40 degree range. The majority of oil analysts feel that oil prices will inch higher next week.
This is a difficult call to make as the 50 day moving average of the SPX is still rising and getting squeezed in between the resistance at around 1430 and the rising moving average.
Due to the erradict earnings calls and overbullish sentiment as demonstrated by the put/call and VIX, I will have to respectfully submit that next week will be a high probability that this might be the second time since 1953 that the SPX has finished down. Other factors I am looking at as well are increasing interest rates and the Fed meeting that seems looming ahead on Jan 31st.
Out of all these factors, the Fed meeting will have the most pronounced effect on the market and will dictate whether a move higher is justified. In looking at all the data, it does appear the news delivered by the Fed will be negative to the markets. The bond market is already pricing in a rate hike.
Mr. Burks call last week that the market would finish lower on the 19th then it did on the 12th was very loosely correction. When looking at the Wilshire 5000, the overall market closed only a few points lower. When looking at different indexes, the market closed down (Nasdaq) or flat (S&P500).
Dr. Michael Roberts
www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com