That's top 5 mba grad school math. This same math allows you to be wrong on every top call you ever made yet still have 72 out of 73 profitable quarters with a 12 figure fantasy hedgefund.
Thorn, you know what my biggest trading weakness is?
<b>Forcing in trades when they're just not there.</b>
Great winning trades don't have to be <b>forced</b>. <i>They</i> come to <i>you</i> (not the other way around), and then just click into place, naturally. I think you're forcing this one. The market is NOT screaming 'top' into your ear at the moment- you'd <b>feel it</b> if that was the case. When this market is truly ready to top, you'll see it with clarity and certainty... not like now, where I think you're just stumbling around in a fog of uncertainty.
BTW, have you seen "Two for the money"? I know exactly what compels you to keep putting yourself on the line with these top calls. Pacino describes the feeling perfectly in his G.A. meeting monologue.