s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1431.8
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
Thorn,
Why dont you post your exact reasons?
Im bearish on the market because there are classical signs such as:
- bullish percent indicators indicating long positions are high risk
- low average put/call ratio
- seasonality (market gets a nice pop in January, then Feb-Mar-April will struggle and then sell in May)
- Charts indicate some fatigue in the overall market
- Current bullishness based upon hype over a few factors not related to actual earnings (i.e. unreleased/untested Apple Iphone which there is current litigation over).
- Bull run long in the tooth
The factors that will make or break the correction will be the following:
- price of oil
- Rates on the ten year (key factor-rates are steadily rising)
- earnings season
- Fed meeting coming up in January
- Geo-political concerns like Iran-Iraq
- Reports that will produce a general read on the economy
- Inflation
If the correction is to come, then it will be in the next few weeks when all these factors play out.
Why dont you post your exact reasons?
Im bearish on the market because there are classical signs such as:
- bullish percent indicators indicating long positions are high risk
- low average put/call ratio
- seasonality (market gets a nice pop in January, then Feb-Mar-April will struggle and then sell in May)
- Charts indicate some fatigue in the overall market
- Current bullishness based upon hype over a few factors not related to actual earnings (i.e. unreleased/untested Apple Iphone which there is current litigation over).
- Bull run long in the tooth
The factors that will make or break the correction will be the following:
- price of oil
- Rates on the ten year (key factor-rates are steadily rising)
- earnings season
- Fed meeting coming up in January
- Geo-political concerns like Iran-Iraq
- Reports that will produce a general read on the economy
- Inflation
If the correction is to come, then it will be in the next few weeks when all these factors play out.
I hate to break it to you, but all those factors were in play last August, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, etc....
But it's different this time......LOL
You know i've long given up on being specific on ET b/c of the maggots. You can thank bozente, apex capital etc for my silence. But in honor of MLK day, i'll give you this:
you missed many of the reasons, but this is my rationale in this order:
1) excessively high bullish sentiment
2) rising bond yields
3) the year before an election
these 3 reasons are more than enough to put the s&p on track for a negative year.