s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1431.8

[thorn]

Quote from bozente_00:

Now show us some more 300 point losses thornybird.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=38214&highlight=top

quoting me from 2004? hey, i have quotes much older than that.

 

[thorn]

Quote from thorn:

@ 1431.8 and it won't see that level for the entire 1st quarter of 2007.

the prob of this being correct is now 5%

 

[nonlinear5]

Quote from thorn:
the prob of this being correct is now 5%

Earlier quote from thorn in this thread:
Obviously, the odds are stacked tremendously against this call. And that's the beauty of this intermediate term top forecast.

I don't follow your line of thought. You seem to imply that the lower the probability of a prediction to be correct, the greater that prediction is. That's not very intuitive. I mean, suppose I make a prediction that tomorrow Christ will come down to Earth and the market will plunge. I'll also attach the disclaimer that the probability of such an event is 0.000000001%. By your own measure of "prediction greatness", that would make it a great prediction, would it not? But who in their right mind would bet their money on this prediction?

Perhaps what you are referring to is this. Suppose you figure out that the market has a 5% chance to go down by 300 points, and 95% chance to go up by 10 points. Then it does make sense to take a short position, although your expected payoff is still pretty low:

Expected market move = 0.05 * (-300) + 0.95 * 10 = -5.5 points

 

[thorn]

Quote from nonlinear5:

I don't follow your line of thought.

Maybe this helps:

Quote from thorn:

I quote the March 1450 calls as trading for double digits to make a point that calling a top within 20 points of it and saying it will last for over 3 months is very risky. The March 1450 calls are trading for double digits b/c there is a high prob of the s&p blowing thru 1450 by March. I also quoted my prediction as having a 1% chance of being correct.

Now see if you can follow the dots...b/c I feel there is a top, I sell the Jan 1450 calls now, and collect the premium. When/if that works and they expire, I then will move to the Feb 1450 calls...and then to the March 1450 calls. I only trade the front month as i'm in the business of making money

Even though there is a low prob of my predictions being correct, some of them on ET have been correct.
and I only make a prediction w the expectation of a success.

 

[thorn]

Quote from thorn:

@ 1431.8 and it won't see that level for the entire 1st quarter of 2007.

sorry s&p, not today (s&p @ 1430)

 

[polpolik]

If it doesn't break 1431.8 during regular hours (I think it will), they'll move the ES up after hours and tomorrow, it will open above the said resistance.

Just my take.

 

[thorn]

Quote from polpolik:

If it doesn't break 1431.8 during regular hours (I think it will), they'll move the ES up after hours and tomorrow, it will open above the said resistance.

Just my take.

Interesting.

I'm not so sure about it breaking during regular hours. And with a 3 day weekend, its quite unkonwn as to what will happen over it. And then, it's earnings season in full, so the volatility will be up next week.

Oh, and I have hung around as per your request since you did win the contest and the winner gets to dictate whether i stay or go

 

[polpolik]

oops, i meant next week not tomorrow. I got too excited about the next trading day. Either way, glad you stayed!

 

[Landis82]

Your number could go heading into today's close.
1421.33 so far . . . with 20 minutes to go.

 

[Landis82]

Got very close, but didn't get there.
The Futures caught a nice little "squeeze" into the close though.
Have a nice weekend everybody!