You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1326.7
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
I didn't say straight down for years though. In fact, I believe the stock market will only decline during the summer and bottom out in August or October. At what level, I don't know. Maybe around 1140, which is really only a 15% decline from the top. At that point, assuming earnings don't deteriorate, the market will be cheap by my measures.Quote from thorn:
My friend, it's hard not to brag too much, as this decline has brought more fortune than I was even expecting. Thank you for throwing in your 2 cents. I agree that all those things that went straight up for years, are now headed straight down for years.
Bonds are a different story. I think the short term rate will go up to 5.5% and the 10 year yield will rise to 6.5% or so. And that's just the foreseeable future. Yields could rise even higher, or the economy slows/goes into recession, or both.
I don't like predicting what my prediction will be months into the future. All I can say are what my predictions are now (and I'm only correct 72% of the time on a monthly basis).
Quote from newbunch:
I didn't say straight down for years though. In fact, I believe the stock market will only decline during the summer and bottom out in August or October. At what level, I don't know. Maybe around 1140, which is really only a 15% decline from the top. At that point, assuming earnings don't deteriorate, the market will be cheap by my measures.
Bonds are a different story. I think the short term rate will go up to 5.5% and the 10 year yield will rise to 6.5% or so. And that's just the foreseeable future. Yields could rise even higher, or the economy slows/goes into recession, or both.
I don't like predicting what my prediction will be months into the future. All I can say are what my predictions are now (and I'm only correct 72% of the time on a monthly basis).
I added the "straight down for years", that's my opinion. Sorry for the confusion. Obviously I don't mean "straight", but if you look next year at the things that have risen over all these years, the parabolic rise will have worked itself the other way.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, however, I like to keep my prediction short-term. I prefer saying that the market will go down over the next three months. Then, you can ask me for a new prediction a month from now and see what I say.Quote from thorn:
I added the "straight down for years", that's my opinion. Sorry for the confusion. Obviously I don't mean "straight", but if you look next year at the things that have risen over all these years, the parabolic rise will have worked itself the other way.
In fact, my system is an end-of-week system, so even a month long prediction is beyond the quantitative scope of my system. But generally, I can tell if I'll be sticking with a position for a while. And right now I am bearish on stocks and bonds and look like I'll be staying that way for a while.
"That is why I don't believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith's tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith's tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on a holiday when the selling time comes around? No, sir, nobody can make big money on what someone else tells him to do. I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgment." Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator
Quote from newbunch:
I don't necessarily disagree with you, however, I like to keep my prediction short-term. I prefer saying that the market will go down over the next three months. Then, you can ask me for a new prediction a month from now and see what I say.
But I agree with you. My predictions are short term too. That's the only way to profitably trade the market.
My longer term view is just an opinion that is subject to change at any time.
Willing to bet that most of the retail bears did not make much money on the fall. Why ? Because that is how the market is set up, bulls kicked the bear's ass for months, and short covering kept driving us higher and higher, when the retail shorts puked and finally joined the longside guess who was selling to them ? Now both parties try to buy the dip on the way down and get bloody hands, when they give up and to hit it short again , the bottom will be in and the smart money will be buying the retail shorts to cover.
volente, the key to winning the game is preservation of capital, no? how is yours doing? You rag on everyone when the mkt goes up, and say you made a killing. You rag on everyone when the mkt goes down? You call everyone retail? You are a fucking poser. Unreal, this site has gone str8 down the tubes becuase of people like you. Fucking putz is what u are.. Do us all a favor and go back to yahoo..