S&P: higher or lower next 2 weeks?

Will the S&P go higher or lower into Fed rate change?

  • It will be higher than 1307 by end of March

    Votes: 13 23.2%

  • It will be lower than 1307 by end of March

    Votes: 27 48.2%

  • this is funny/ this is ridiculous/ this is stupid

    Votes: 16 28.6%
  • Total voters
    56
Quote from giraffe:

That pretty much describes the first day and an hour.
More...
If you think changing species is going to help you make more accurate predictions, good luck. Too bad when a real life guy goes on cnbc and makes a bad call, that he can't come back in disguise and make a new prediction. I could see rubberbird on cnbc, first bad call he shows up normal, next time on he looks like the new Starsky (Ben Stiller) when he had the blue wig and side burns and kept saying "DO IT, DO IT".

...Rennick out

ps. hey bird start using this smiley so we know its you :cool:
 
Looks like a good fade (short) to me. I find using an MA based on Pivot Points is more useful than a standard SMA or EMA, which are based on close prices. The pivot point is = High+Low+Close/3, which is the meat of trade for that day.
 

Attachments

Quote from FaderTrader:

Looks like a good fade (short) to me. I find using an MA based on Pivot Points is more useful than a standard SMA or EMA, which are based on close prices. The pivot point is = High+Low+Close/3, which is the meat of trade for that day.
More...

The technical formation you speak of is hard to discern.
 
These calculations are taken from The Logical Trader by Marc Fisher. He feels that Moving Averages are misleading in that they are based solely on the close of the day (or incremental time period). He feels its more accurate to judge the market trend by using prices that went off in the meat of the market. To do that he calculates a Daily Pivot Price.

Daily Pivot Price = (High+Low+Close)/3

For the purposes of creating a Moving Average using this, simply plot each day's pivot point on a chart and calculate the slope.

I like to derive both the 30-day and 5-day slopes to calculate the short-term spread between the two, which I feel, gives me a more accurate picture of short-term market sentiment.

The attached document is th 30-day Daily Pivot Price Moving Average for the S&P. The Slope for the entire period is presented (which obviously points to an upward trend). The slope for the last 5 days of trading is also presented (which shows a downward trend).

The spread between the longer-term (30-day) and shorter-term (5-day) slope is negative, indicating a bearish bias.

That's just my 2 cents. The problem with this, like any indicator, is it's based on past, not future data (oh, wouldn't that be nice). But, needless to say, I'll be shorting almost everything tomorrow.
 

Attachments

Quote from giraffe:

I'm giraffe. What do you think of the market prospects leading up to the Fed decision Mr. Buy1Sell2 ?
More...



I was referring to this, not ACTUAL insight, only this POS has the time to waste making new aliases.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top