S&P has topped for 2006

Has the s&p topped for 2006 ?

  • Yes it has

    Votes: 46 26.1%

  • No, it will go higher than 1390 in 2006

    Votes: 83 47.2%

  • I don't know / go away Thorn

    Votes: 47 26.7%
  • Total voters
    176
Quote from iceman1:

hmmmm............. that's funny... here all these years i thought the market looked... ahead... not at the present or past! kinda like housing, eh--- !? who knows what happens here with the public coming on board at or near highs! maybe we bubble over!

no doubt the downside reward at this juncture seems non-existent, and few people are not bullish (as contrasted with cautious which is not like being bearish) .

the problem with shorting here is we have a seasonally strong period and many feel warm and fuzzy like they did back in 2000, more importantly many have taxable gains. The Q is do they wait to save tax or cash out sooner fearing losses of more than the $ savings in holding until 1/07. then again is tax really an issue nowadays with hedge funds et.al... like back in the 80s-90s?!

but IMO it is certain the beginning of 2007 will see a very large correction. we all tend to forget when things are rosy that markets typically fall/correct faster than they rise. La Vie En Rose/Piaf ("life in the roses/looking at life through rose-colored glasses")
:D




IcE
:cool:
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the world must be ending for the market to correct like this! but let's not fret it could be up 50 by week's end!

but no doubt waiting to short has been a losing game, and staying long has been a big winner thus catching some of a ONE day wonder (so far) is nothing to write home about or cause one to change a bullish posture.......... yet ! However the market always falls faster so it seems! So significantly more downside is doable here.

short plays will outperform longs in next 5 months >>> JMHO.

patience required however!



Ice
:cool:
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

Do I get credit for my call that a yen rally would stop the market?
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What about Euro, GBP rally? USD does seem to be in a sticky situation here
 
I guess I should clarify. I said the yen because it is largest of the carry trade currency and would therefore have the largest impact if it were to rally and cut into the returns of funds using it to juice returns.
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

Do I get credit for my call that a yen rally would stop the market?
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over many many years i have learned the only "credit" one gets for being "right" in the market is taking profits/making money............ the rest is all table talk!
 
Quote from thorn:

lil duckling has made a dramatic turnaround from the time i've known him on et. he went from calling lxk, don't know if he had $ on it, to running into trouble, to persisting in making the market become profitable to him. congrats to lil duckling, who worked thru and has done well. good bird!
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Finally.... a delicious nibblet for my tummy!! Lilduckling is very happy! Thanx thorn!
 
One thing about markets is how fickle sentiment is. You can have every man and his dog "bearish" at 1400. At 1430 suddenly "everyone" is a bull. Then the market pukes 70 points in 3 weeks, and "everyone" is a bear again.

I have seen countless moves where everyone seemed bullish 1 week before the top. 2 weeks later, everyone is crapping their pants.

This is the trouble with an analysis like Maverick's. It doesn't matter if everyone is a screaming lunatic bear right now, because in as little as 24 hours that can turn on a dime. The "bearishness" only matters right here, right now. The moment the market sentiment shifts, if the short-term bias goes towards a down move, then that is all that matters. Short short short short short until that bias changes, just as it's been buy buy buy whilst the bias has been up.

Remember, markets, like everything in economics, are not dominated by the majority. They are dominated by the marginal buyer and seller. There might be 100 houses on your street. The price for ALL of them is determined by the one, two, or three sales that happened in the last 6-12 months. 97 houses that might not have traded in 20 years, are priced based on the actions of 1-3% of that ownership community. It is exactly the same in stocks. It's the 2-3% on the margin that matter, not the 97% who have the same view now as they did at S&P 1200.
 
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