Quote from ghostzapper:
The S&P has had it ! It failed this week.
It only made a high of 1555.9 and that's an intermediate term top.
Take it to the bank.
The S&P will not trade above that level for the next 4 months.
It's going lower baby.
Recognizing that âWhat is â isâ and that everything in the future is a wild ass guess, then I consider and guess:
1. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is now in a column of Oâs at the 48% box. This is a point and figure based chart having a range of from 0 to 100%, that measures all the S&P500 stocks that are on a point and figure buy signal. This chart has pulled back to the 48% box six times since mid-2004, and then reversed back up each time. However, if you go back to 2002, it managed to get all the way down to the 12% box; which means that only 60 of the 500 stocks were on a buy signal; and
2. The S&P500 point and figure chartâs last bearish price objective was 1330. This price objective was negated when the chart reversed back up and gave a buy signal at 1480. Then, an ominous chart pattern at market tops called a âHigh Poleâ occurred. (A high pole occurs when a column of Xâs exceeds the previous column of Xâs by at least 3 boxes, and then reverses down in the next column of Oâs more than 50% of the previous column of Xâs). The long and short of it is a 1st bearish price objective of 1330 and the 2nd bearish price objective of 1220.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P
3. My S&P500 pivot point swing chart has a negative trend, and a first bearish price objective of 1361, and a 2nd bearish price objective of 1297.
Summary:
-If the S&P500 P&F chart goes down one more box, and one box only, and then reverses up, itâs a classic P&F Bear Trap signal. A bear trap P&F signal requires a triple bottom and reversal up as I described. They are very telling signals, even at these beginning thrust run-downs. If in fact it reverses back up, along with the Bullish Percent chart, then a continued summer rally would not be at all surprising.
-BUT, if the charts reverse below that one box, then thereâs minimal support at 1330 and stronger support at the 1370/1380 area. If they break below that, then my price objectives become a real possibility.
Again, just my WAG.
Chuck