That's what I call a range!
S&P daily pivots and break-down & up Targets
- Thread starter joeb8822
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Is any of this STUFF clear to you Joe?
I mean we get, now, 3 HUGE "bounces" (you call them?) off the Dow 8000 or so level. HUGE I say since couple with GREAT volume.
The subsequent rises or rally attempts had less and less volume or VIRTUALLY NO BUYERS!!!
<b>Who is buying en masse at these levels (which btw get lower and lower - yikes)</b>
What do you see or mean by bounce? I know that much of what we see is short-covering, but I mean HUGE pickup in volume and then silent again until we rise and fall back to this same level.
Do you see this setting up as a triple-bottom or a vain attempt at the Fed throwing our taxpayer dollars into the market in HOPES it doesn't do what some seem to think - - TANK HUGELY FROM HERE.
What do you see, JB? Isn't this action insane? If they are fuc*'n with this we most surely will go back to horrendous lows. They never learn - do not mess with the market it will always have the last say!!!
. . .
When the market vol is this high my strategy dictates that I step aside into cash - too crazy
.
I mean we get, now, 3 HUGE "bounces" (you call them?) off the Dow 8000 or so level. HUGE I say since couple with GREAT volume.
The subsequent rises or rally attempts had less and less volume or VIRTUALLY NO BUYERS!!!
<b>Who is buying en masse at these levels (which btw get lower and lower - yikes)</b>
What do you see or mean by bounce? I know that much of what we see is short-covering, but I mean HUGE pickup in volume and then silent again until we rise and fall back to this same level.
Do you see this setting up as a triple-bottom or a vain attempt at the Fed throwing our taxpayer dollars into the market in HOPES it doesn't do what some seem to think - - TANK HUGELY FROM HERE.
What do you see, JB? Isn't this action insane? If they are fuc*'n with this we most surely will go back to horrendous lows. They never learn - do not mess with the market it will always have the last say!!!
. . .
When the market vol is this high my strategy dictates that I step aside into cash - too crazy
.I don't think we've seen the bottom, but these spikes are to be expected at crucial levels. What was mind-blowing was watching sentiment change, from "depression" to "we've hit the bottom".
If and when we get a capitualtion I'm afraid it will be horrid and have repercussions I am afraid to entertain... hence I believe the powers that be will do all they can to draw this out as long as possible. It's been week after week of steady bleeding, there is a ton of fear out there, and alot we don't know.
I still think we're in a down trend, possibly to 1995 levels, because I really believe there is an elephant in the room. But what I believe doesn't matter, at all.
Joe- what can you tell about today's volume? Could you possibly make a short video about today's action? These are historic times (hopefully, I'd hate to think things would be more volatile than this, lol imagine 1000 pt ranges being the norm)...
I was looking at charts overnight and esp depression era spikes and today looks similar in that it was especially sharp and steep and I don't expect us to get any kind of a v recovery. Just plain common sense tells me we're in for a looonnngg L.
If and when we get a capitualtion I'm afraid it will be horrid and have repercussions I am afraid to entertain... hence I believe the powers that be will do all they can to draw this out as long as possible. It's been week after week of steady bleeding, there is a ton of fear out there, and alot we don't know.
I still think we're in a down trend, possibly to 1995 levels, because I really believe there is an elephant in the room. But what I believe doesn't matter, at all.
Joe- what can you tell about today's volume? Could you possibly make a short video about today's action? These are historic times (hopefully, I'd hate to think things would be more volatile than this, lol imagine 1000 pt ranges being the norm)...
I was looking at charts overnight and esp depression era spikes and today looks similar in that it was especially sharp and steep and I don't expect us to get any kind of a v recovery. Just plain common sense tells me we're in for a looonnngg L.
Quote from paysense:
Is any of this STUFF clear to you Joe?
I mean we get, now, 3 HUGE "bounces" (you call them?) off the Dow 8000 or so level. HUGE I say since couple with GREAT volume.
The subsequent rises or rally attempts had less and less volume or VIRTUALLY NO BUYERS!!!
<b>Who is buying en masse at these levels (which btw get lower and lower - yikes)</b>
What do you see or mean by bounce? I know that much of what we see is short-covering, but I mean HUGE pickup in volume and then silent again until we rise and fall back to this same level.
Do you see this setting up as a triple-bottom or a vain attempt at the Fed throwing our taxpayer dollars into the market in HOPES it doesn't do what some seem to think - - TANK HUGELY FROM HERE.
What do you see, JB? Isn't this action insane? If they are fuc*'n with this we most surely will go back to horrendous lows. They never learn - do not mess with the market it will always have the last say!!!
. . .
When the market vol is this high my strategy dictates that I step aside into cash - too crazy
Personaly what I think Happend today was we where about to CRASH, the Market had AIR pockets in it and that is very bad
and I really mean BAD, Paulson has the right to BUY index futures
and he used it today, NO QUESTION ABOUT IT
that being said what do we do now ???
Just what we do every day, trade it................LOL
This can have some follow thru depending on how many shorts are out there, THIS IS A CLASSIC SHORT SQUEEZE NOTHING MORE
JB
Thx SO much, JB. That explains a lot. This Bear Market keeps teaching me vital lessons - which is cool (although, I am wondering at what point does my heart quit getting to the point of an attack, lol!).
Hedging with index call options definitely will serve this "swing" trader, when volatility is SO HIGH!
Although all my accounts are in cash. . .this looked like the perfect opportunity to make a play, so in one account I went short TFS Tuesday.
By the time it hit intra-day lows today the account went from from high 20's to 40k. The index move down today had just started and well you know the rest.
Paulson was having none of it. They also waited for the optimal move to BUY, BUY, BUY. I should have known it wasn't all short-covering, because volume spiked and never let up. To me that will now be an indicator if the move has legs. . .and this one did!
At that point I have a few options. (a) Cash out and fuggetabout more downside gains. (b) Hedge by going LONG ES or YM until the marekt sorts out what it wants to do - but that will basically zero out any gains or losses.
Or (c) spend a couple-few k buying front month OTM call options. Depending on how quickly the indexes move up and back down losses spent could be minimal. This provides the opportunity for me to possibly continue profiting from the downtrend.
Worst-case I lose a few k and at anytime can close out everything if my index short bias shifts (similar to pitchfork) and go long.
I learned the hard way, since hard fought gains quickly evaporated on more than one occasion and then I do not feel comfortable holding for the extreme swing a bit higher and then back to the lows so I close out near the top and actually decimate the account some.
You can imagine the frustration, but the signals are so good that simply scalping a few k here and there during Bear Markets is not my style. I like to make portfolio changes every few days and not watch the market every tick all day every day.gA
:eek:
Oh an I should have known - despite all indicators that support will certainly be severely broken - that the 8000 level was getting tested a third time and was key enough of a level to be aware that, even without Paulson. . .we could move a bit through and then mightily move back off of it!
Hedging with index call options definitely will serve this "swing" trader, when volatility is SO HIGH!
Although all my accounts are in cash. . .this looked like the perfect opportunity to make a play, so in one account I went short TFS Tuesday.
By the time it hit intra-day lows today the account went from from high 20's to 40k. The index move down today had just started and well you know the rest.
Paulson was having none of it. They also waited for the optimal move to BUY, BUY, BUY. I should have known it wasn't all short-covering, because volume spiked and never let up. To me that will now be an indicator if the move has legs. . .and this one did!
At that point I have a few options. (a) Cash out and fuggetabout more downside gains. (b) Hedge by going LONG ES or YM until the marekt sorts out what it wants to do - but that will basically zero out any gains or losses.
Or (c) spend a couple-few k buying front month OTM call options. Depending on how quickly the indexes move up and back down losses spent could be minimal. This provides the opportunity for me to possibly continue profiting from the downtrend.
Worst-case I lose a few k and at anytime can close out everything if my index short bias shifts (similar to pitchfork) and go long.
I learned the hard way, since hard fought gains quickly evaporated on more than one occasion and then I do not feel comfortable holding for the extreme swing a bit higher and then back to the lows so I close out near the top and actually decimate the account some.
You can imagine the frustration, but the signals are so good that simply scalping a few k here and there during Bear Markets is not my style. I like to make portfolio changes every few days and not watch the market every tick all day every day.gA
:eek:
Oh an I should have known - despite all indicators that support will certainly be severely broken - that the 8000 level was getting tested a third time and was key enough of a level to be aware that, even without Paulson. . .we could move a bit through and then mightily move back off of it!
FYI - not absolutely positive, but I think your levels did that wierd thing again today. Thanks for making them wide enough. . .but when breakdown and big move to the target - not quite met. Then back up through to break and again not quite through or yes, I'm pretty sure it did make it to the ultimate target.
Paysen$e
Actually kudos Joe. All your levels rocked except the downside ES. I bet you and your room are REALLY happy!
:eek:
Paysen$e
Actually kudos Joe. All your levels rocked except the downside ES. I bet you and your room are REALLY happy!
:eek:
Thanks PAY$,
I actualy got out at 919 area the old saying don't be a dick for a tick!
I was scared of a bounce, not like the one we had, just market was oversold so much I did not want to give much back
I had scaled out anyway and figured what the hell, get out now
my downside target was 915 it went to 916.75 I think
Also yea we went both sides today If you want to see something cool you can put up a 5 min chart and the market did a great ABC
FIB move, and on a 1 min chart it did 2.........LOL we got both of them in room, I call that LUCKY.........LOL
This market is a hard market to do anything other than short term trade, I feel for you trying to swing trade it
It will calm down, Just when is the question ?
That i have no idea however options would be your best bet
AGAIN watch the VIX that will tell you lower # mean market will go up higher # mean down or smaller ranges as well
JB
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Little Vid on the Market, Plus I talk about the Balance Indicator
for stock traders
JB
Little Vid on the Market, Plus I talk about the Balance Indicator
for stock traders
JB
I cant believe how crazy the S&P has been lately.....ive made and lost a ton of money. i was actually playing this UMOO game and made more money there then in the real market. Its some sort of fantasy stock trading game with the S&P 500 stocks only. I dont know but i think ill stay away from the markets for now and stick to fantasy with big cash prizes. (less risk, nice prizes). Check it out umoo.com
You may just be the smartest guy in the room........LOL