S&P correction
- Thread starter Mecro
- Start date
Hey trendfader--
don't get suckered in over here in this unfriendly copy-cat thread. The real thread on market corrections is right in front of you "is the market on the verge on a serious correction?" Come hang out in that thread, and I assure you that the maggots won't bug you there.
To Pspr, the best you can do is start a copy cat thread? How embarrassing! Look at the popularity of your thread, as opposed to the popularity of mine. You must have heard these words before, "you lose!!"
Well, the (implicit) problem is fund managers and what they'll do before that FOMC meeting because the fact that it ends 2h before Q2 ends.
Thinking that a FOMC meeting will have no effect on markets or USD because rates are "only 1%" is rather naïve; but of course it won't topple off the corporate earnings we have seen.
But just as we see today with BOE statements - US markets do not stand alone in the world. China - the world's 2nd biggest economy with regards to exports - is slowing down - which is very significant to US markets as well. GDP increases without any payroll increases also is rather lackluster, but might eventually rise after some slack.
If you're trading SP short term, talk of fundamentals is not too relevant. Stay with that crack pipe if it helps you relax
(j/K)don't forget that the fed has already pumped in 13+ interest rate cutes in the past few years that have now so-called made their way through our monetary system by now hence the stock market recovery since the beginning of the war in Iraq.
i'm not a believer in fed monetary policy as the stock market bubble burst back in 2000 and each time the fed lowered interest rates the mkt still fell immediately afterwards.
IF/WHEN the fed raises the rates it will mark the beginning of the end of our monetary system as we know it to be. as soon as the interest rate process begins the market will fall and fall hard at the 1st rate hike. remember, the mkt moves in the opposite direction of fed policy i.e. if the fed lowers the rate = mkt will fall, if the fed raises the rate mkt will rise.
now to explain the contradiction:
the economic cycle has ended i.e. the bull mkt is officially over when either of these following events occur 1st:
1. the ES tests the 1245.75 level and fails to hold it as new support.
2. the fed raises the interest rates.
3. mkt takes out the ES 767.00 low and closes below it thus making it new resistance.
there you have it!
1245.75 - 767.00
one of these numbers are going to break.
the question is which one will break 1st?
only time will tell.
i'm not a believer in fed monetary policy as the stock market bubble burst back in 2000 and each time the fed lowered interest rates the mkt still fell immediately afterwards.
IF/WHEN the fed raises the rates it will mark the beginning of the end of our monetary system as we know it to be. as soon as the interest rate process begins the market will fall and fall hard at the 1st rate hike. remember, the mkt moves in the opposite direction of fed policy i.e. if the fed lowers the rate = mkt will fall, if the fed raises the rate mkt will rise.
now to explain the contradiction:
the economic cycle has ended i.e. the bull mkt is officially over when either of these following events occur 1st:
1. the ES tests the 1245.75 level and fails to hold it as new support.
2. the fed raises the interest rates.
3. mkt takes out the ES 767.00 low and closes below it thus making it new resistance.
there you have it!
1245.75 - 767.00
one of these numbers are going to break.
the question is which one will break 1st?
only time will tell.