S&P 500 - You make the call

[NoProblem]

Quote from dman666:

I don't understand if your a trader, why care about fundamentals mattering for the market? How do you know when the fundamentals are suddenly working in the market?

I don't care about fundamentals mainly because I do not normally keep a position long enough to care....but that's just me.

Another thing, earlier I mentioned that I trade long or short without bias - but at these levels I think my overall bias is to sell at these levels.

Having a bias is a good thing when you are on the right side of the trade. Nothing wrong with it at all - every trader out there is biased when they enter any position.

SnP500Trader has excellent commentary on that subject, check it out:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8m5oLQ5qLns

 

[Pholeuon]

Angel king is right, history is repeating.
If you will look on end of april 2001 than it was extremely similar situation like now including indicators, Mas, etc.
I am sure that PPT sees it but is able to do something against repeating?

I would like point 2 things. Actual resitance can be a bit higher than 1400, because is you use MA etc than only if we get at appr 1420 we can say that we broke all types of them. Everybody has own lines and there are many projections possible where the actual resistance is a bit over 1400.

If you will analyse situation in past bear market in 2001 etc you will see that price was able break similar types of resistence /go and look yourself, paint trend lines and look on MA resistances/ but they did not converted in supports.
After short hesitation there the prices were sliding or falling down. It is very different situation like in bull market - in bull market if clear resistence is broken is changes to support immediately.
Surprisingly study 2000-2002 I see that IT WAS DIFFERENT at that time. Many times clear resistance broken and whoom down from there after short time.

So I will be very, very carefull to go long over 1400 but under 1420 - and the rallies must be on better volume like last one. I believe that we will break 1400 - probably after some consolidation, but big question is if we will be not fall down from there.

If we will fall, like bottom of this market are numbers 1290 /as minumum/ , 1160-70 - /I personally believe if we will fall down from 1400 we will get there/ and last defence line that stopped bear in October 2002 - it will be a bit bellow 1000 at that time /I think we need more than year or so - if we well will get there/.

I do not know what will happen but situation looks very dangerous to me - we can go both ways. And even if we will break 1400 this does not mean that bear market is over. If we break 1420 and stay there as minimum 2 months than yes, probably.

I know that government, etc is pumping money in this market. But if they can really change inevitable that is big question.

Like trader it is not problem for me. Just I suggest to be careful with longs above 1400, it is not that "huraah, resistance is broken" simple situation.
If we start falling from there it can be spectacular /I do not expect it short term personally/.

 

[astral]

Just so you have an idea how I first observe,

*With pennants, you feel the mood of the markets.
*With volume you get a better story.
*With Channels, you get an even better story

With a higher consciousness, you now know exactly where the market is heading for:

1: tomorrow,
2: next week,
3: next month,
4: HECK, even next year

 

[dman666]

Quote from NoProblem:

YES! This is the main thing that makes me question the current level as a resistance.

I guess I would like to think that at some point, fundamentals matter - -- perhaps that point comes months from now.
We'll soon find out I think.

Again, I am quoting what you said in this post for a reason. After all the talk about buying support and resistance you say that you would like to think that at some point fundamentals matter again. That basically implies that you may change your trading style when you think the fundamentals matter again? And how do you know when these fundamentals matter again? Just a little confused since what you said above and in a more recent post about not caring about fundamentals and trading very short term and on support and resistance. I am still very interested in how you determine if the fundamentals are mattering or not?

 

[NoProblem]

Quote from dman666:

Again, I am quoting what you said in this post for a reason. After all the talk about buying support and resistance you say that you would like to think that at some point fundamentals matter again. That basically implies that you may change your trading style when you think the fundamentals matter again? And how do you know when these fundamentals matter again? Just a little confused since what you said above and in a more recent post about not caring about fundamentals and trading very short term and on support and resistance. I am still very interested in how you determine if the fundamentals are mattering or not?

Yes, I would like to think that fundamentals matter at some point - to the market, not to me.

I just try to follow the market and if/when the market decides the fundamentals matter, that can take us over resistances as well as below supports.

Currently, the downtrend from Oct is still intact. As such, I would expect resistance to hold - but perhaps AAPL has terrible earnings and we zoom over resistance because market figures "it can only get better from here". Or XYZ has news market decides is bullish - - at that point, resistance line is nothing more than a line on a chart.

So what I'm saying is that at some point, fundamentals matter to the market - not to me.

Hope that helps clarify.

 

[dman666]

Quote from NoProblem:

Yes, I would like to think that fundamentals matter at some point - to the market, not to me.

I just try to follow the market and if/when the market decides the fundamentals matter, that can take us over resistances as well as below supports.

Currently, the downtrend from Oct is still intact. As such, I would expect resistance to hold - but perhaps AAPL has terrible earnings and we zoom over resistance because market figures "it can only get better from here". Or XYZ has news market decides is bullish - - at that point, resistance line is nothing more than a line on a chart.

So what I'm saying is that at some point, fundamentals matter to the market - not to me.

Hope that helps clarify.

Not really, how do you know what fundamentals matter to the market? Ok, so you expect the downtrend line to hold if AAPL reports bad earnings. Does that mean the fundamentals are working again? They are only one company though and I don't see how they can make the fundamentals matter to the whole market.

You also say that the resistance line is nothing more than a line on a chart due to some type of interpretation of fundamentals and the market thinking it is bullish. So do you all of a sudden stop using that trend/resistance line?

 

[NoProblem]

Quote from dman666:

Not really, how do you know what fundamentals matter to the market? Ok, so you expect the downtrend line to hold if AAPL reports bad earnings. Does that mean the fundamentals are working again? They are only one company though and I don't see how they can make the fundamentals matter to the whole market.

You also say that the resistance line is nothing more than a line on a chart due to some type of interpretation of fundamentals and the market thinking it is bullish. So do you all of a sudden stop using that trend/resistance line?

I don't know when fundamentals matter to the market, but at some point, they come into play. To my way of thinking, we should have fallen much farther than we did if they mattered a few months ago. But the market did not think they were as bad as I did.

If the market decides - for whatever reason - that the fundamentals are suddenly great, they won't let a line on a chart stop them from buying.

We've already broke thru many minor resistances in the last few weeks- as such, the question of whether this resistance line holds or not is valid.

Either way, it should not really matter to the trader.

Rather, the trader's reaction to what happens is what matters - I mean ya still gotta open a trade and if you are on the right side - ahead of the market, you should profit.

If you enter on the wrong side and react accordingly, you should profit or have a minimal loss.

Talking heads everywhere shouting the bull is back seems a good contrary indicator at these levels - but even a broke clock is right twice a day.

 

[dman666]

Quote from NoProblem:

I don't know when fundamentals matter to the market, but at some point, they come into play. To my way of thinking, we should have fallen much farther than we did if they mattered a few months ago. But the market did not think they were as bad as I did.

If the market decides - for whatever reason - that the fundamentals are suddenly great, they won't let a line on a chart stop them from buying.

We've already broke thru many minor resistances in the last few weeks- as such, the question of whether this resistance line holds or not is valid.

Either way, it should not really matter to the trader.

Rather, the trader's reaction to what happens is what matters - I mean ya still gotta open a trade and if you are on the right side - ahead of the market, you should profit.

If you enter on the wrong side and react accordingly, you should profit or have a minimal loss.

Talking heads everywhere shouting the bull is back seems a good contrary indicator at these levels - but even a broke clock is right twice a day.

How do you know when they come into play? You admit that you don't know when fundamentals matter, but at some point they come into play. How does the market decide that the fundamentals are all of a sudden great? And what fundamentals are you talking about (p.e. of the s&p, dividend yields, book values, earnings)? Does only one of those fundamental terms apply to the market or do you have to put them all together and try to interpret what you think they all mean?

 

[NoProblem]

Quote from dman666:

How do you know when they come into play? You admit that you don't know when fundamentals matter, but at some point they come into play. How does the market decide that the fundamentals are all of a sudden great? And what fundamentals are you talking about (p.e. of the s&p, dividend yields, book values, earnings)? Does only one of those fundamental terms apply to the market or do you have to put them all together and try to interpret what you think they all mean?

I don't know dude lol

Let me give you an example..........market failed to break below Jan low.......why wasn't Jan low even lower?

Bullsh!t rouge trader and the Fed stepped in and, IMO, the market figured that the fed changed the fundamentals - otherwise it would have fallen further.

My definition more includes market sentiment, driven largely by idiot talking heads.

That's about as definitive I can hope to get regarding my definition of market fundamentals.

If we zoom over 1400, at that point, my guess would be that market seems to think fundamentals improved enough to buy buy buy - - at least for now.

 

[dman666]

Quote from NoProblem:

I don't know dude lol

Let me give you an example..........market failed to break below Jan low.......why wasn't Jan low even lower?

Bullsh!t rouge trader and the Fed stepped in and, IMO, the market figured that the fed changed the fundamentals - otherwise it would have fallen further.

My definition more includes market sentiment, driven largely by idiot talking heads.

That's about as definitive I can hope to get regarding my definition of market fundamentals.

If we zoom over 1400, at that point, my guess would be that market seems to think fundamentals improved enough to buy buy buy - - at least for now.

So you're saying the Bullsh!t rouge trader and the Fed stepped in and , IYO, the market figured that the fed changed the "Market Sentiment" (replaced fundamentals)?