S&P 500 - You make the call

Quote from Jayford:

Most intelligent thing posted here in awhile! Nice.

You actually sound more like a day trader.

Personally, this latest rally has just set up the markets for another decline. But, i am the same as you, I go with whoever is in control at the time. I see 1402.50 as pretty severe. I expect a new low before all is settled out. Earnings expectations were so dreadful that this latest rally had to happen.

But since my actual trading time frame is about 15 minutes, you might want to take my long term thoughts with a grain of salt!
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Thanks Jayford.

It's just that nearly everyone is so damn bullish - - same as bears getting more bearish at the bottom - - I just was hoping to get traders opinions and I was not disappointed!

I mean, if you plan to open any longer term long positions, IMHO, ya just do not do it at these levels!

IMHO, unless we break out you sell your longs here.

If you plan to trade at all at these levels, short is the safest regardless of talking head idiots.

Sometimes I just succumb to the noise and my brain gets more scrambled than it already is.
 
Quote from NoProblem:

Thanks Jayford.

It's just that nearly everyone is so damn bullish - - same as bears getting more bearish at the bottom - - I just was hoping to get traders opinions and I was not disappointed!

I mean, if you plan to open any longer term long positions, IMHO, ya just do not do it at these levels!

IMHO, unless we break out you sell your longs here.

If you plan to trade at all at these levels, short is the safest regardless of talking head idiots.

Sometimes I just succumb to the noise and my brain gets more scrambled than it already is.
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Sound's like your good to go then, but I still think you have a bias based on your comment that I put in bold above. You may be right (for your system), but it still is a biased comment based on your interpretation of the market.
 
Quote from dman666:

Sound's like your good to go then, but I still think you have a bias based on your comment that I put in bold above. You may be right (for your system), but it still is a biased comment based on your interpretation of the market.
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You may be right but I don't think it is really a bias - - one of my rules that I try to adhere to is to sell at resistance and buy at support.

Well, seems we are really close to - and maybe even at resistance.

Perhaps the quicker longs and shorts both make money next week lol.
 
Quote from NoProblem:

You may be right but I don't think it is really a bias - - one of my rules that I try to adhere to is to sell at resistance and buy at support.

Well, seems we are really close to - and maybe even at resistance.

Perhaps the quicker longs and shorts both make money next week lol.
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Yes, but support and resistance is very subjective. You say that we are really close to - and maybe even at resistance. Well, I can argue that you are wrong and we have just broken through resistance and are headed higher. Just pull up a 3 month chart of the S&P 500 and look at the top at the end of Feb and beginning of April, it couldn't stay above the 1380 mark and now just shot right through it. So now , those tops are a support level.
 
Quote from dman666:

Yes, but support and resistance is very subjective. You say that we are really close to - and maybe even at resistance. Well, I can argue that you are wrong and we have just broken through resistance and are headed higher. Just pull up a 3 month chart of the S&P 500 and look at the top at the end of Feb and beginning of April, it couldn't stay above the 1380 mark and now just shot right through it. So now , those tops are a support level.
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Ahh, I see what you mean and totally agree.......... I guess it all depends on where ya put the lines at.

To my way of thinking, the green uptrend support turned resistance is primary, down trend resistance is a close second and 1400 is more just "an area" with significance.

After all, the chart I posted is only my opinion on, well, my opinion of what is important lol.
 
Quote from Pholeuon:

1. We have bear market. After my opinion bear market is when 200 day EMA is on top. So it started 23January.
Look how rarely it happened in past, this is sign that in fact are long term problems.

Why do you think that it is resitance on 1400? on 27th February stopped us the 50 day Ema, on 7th April 100 day EMA - but these are wayyyyyyyy less significant resistances like 200 day Ema in bear market. If you study past what happens in bull market when prices are falling bellow 200 Ema nad in bear markets when are rising above 200 Ema you will see that it needs more attempts not only go through, but what is more important not fall back. We just broke the 100 Ema last day. I believe we can keep here because we are not that overbought and there is PPT. But 200 Ema has magical power - it is strong restistance but it will be good support just when all other EMAs will go above of it - and this will need weeks if not months.
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You forget one thing: This is a Fed sponsored rally, they will do anything to punt SPX above any resistance there is. I am sure Feds know how to read charts and do have Market Technicians at hand , after all they can't be sitting in the ivory tower with you plotting to undermine their efforts. The market is rigged to the upside and will have a hard time being sold off as you have seen lately. Once we are coasting nicely, they may put this on some kind of auto pilot.

Meanwhile start reading Investors Business Dailys Top 100 and start paying attention to cup and handle breakouts, and there are plenty of them after this nasty 3 month spill. New leaders, new bases and stocks breaking out from double bottoms!

We will get over this 200 EMA as we did with 50 day and 28 day and 10 day step by step. Recession may not even happen and this negative sentiment will change.
 
Quote from dman666:

Yes, but support and resistance is very subjective. You say that we are really close to - and maybe even at resistance. Well, I can argue that you are wrong and we have just broken through resistance and are headed higher. Just pull up a 3 month chart of the S&P 500 and look at the top at the end of Feb and beginning of April, it couldn't stay above the 1380 mark and now just shot right through it. So now , those tops are a support level.
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SPX broke all the trendlines on Friday in a powerfull bullish rally. Shorts must cover and sell those SPY puts for losses that will soon magnify. This big white candle is coming up your ass, if you dont.
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

You forget one thing: This is a Fed sponsored rally, they will do anything to punt SPX above any resistance there is.........
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YES! This is the main thing that makes me question the current level as a resistance.

I guess I would like to think that at some point, fundamentals matter - -- perhaps that point comes months from now.
We'll soon find out I think.
 
Quote from NoProblem:

YES! This is the main thing that makes me question the current level as a resistance.

I guess I would like to think that at some point, fundamentals matter - -- perhaps that point comes months from now.
We'll soon find out I think.
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I don't understand if your a trader, why care about fundamentals mattering for the market? How do you know when the fundamentals are suddenly working in the market?
 
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