S&P 500 would be trading closer to 1,800 without Fed bond-buying: Societe Generale

[Arnie]

How much of the stock market’s gain since the financial crisis is due to the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary monetary policy actions, particularly quantitative easing, or QE? A pretty huge chunk, according to analysts at Société Générale.

“In fact, without QE, the Nasdaq-100 NDX, +0.11% should be closer to 5,000 than 11,000, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.02% should be closer to 1,800 rather than 3,300” through the end of October, wrote equity strategists Sophie Huynh and Charles De Boissezon, in a Friday note (see charts below).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-than-3-300-says-societe-generale-11604688442

 

[jys78]

Lol. Imagine missing out on monster rallies because of fear, analysis paralysis etc.

 

[bone]

Imagine where it would be with raised corporate tax rates, raised capital gains, and a slaughtered domestic hydrocarbons industry.

 

[maUL3dNQ]

Imagine where it would be with raised corporate tax rates, raised capital gains, and a slaughtered domestic hydrocarbons industry.

I assume we will find out shortly, with a democratic win.

 

[Nobert]

Lol. Imagine missing out on monster rallies because of fear, analysis paralysis etc.

Folk like that, miss because of the weak skill base.

Once one starts to understand, fear falls right into the bottom of the emotional trigger list.

It still effects, yet in a different way.

When you imagine of what would happen, if no action is taken.

,,The biggest risk there is, - is taking no risk"
- Mark Howard

 

[tsznecki]

Imagine where it would be with raised corporate tax rates, raised capital gains, and a slaughtered domestic hydrocarbons industry.

How are Dems going to raise taxes without Senate control?

Even if Dems have Senate control, you assume a massive stim package wouldn't outweigh the effects of higher taxes.

Are you angry today? You usually post better quality.

 

[bone]

No, I’m not angry at all. And how exactly would another stimulus package outweigh higher corporate taxes, higher capital gains taxes, and killing off the domestic hydrocarbons industry? No Dem talking points please. I disagree with that assumption.

How are Dems going to raise taxes without Senate control?

Even if Dems have Senate control, you assume a massive stim package wouldn't outweigh the effects of higher taxes.

Are you angry today? You usually post better quality.

 

[tsznecki]

No, I’m not angry at all. And how exactly would another stimulus package outweigh higher corporate taxes, higher capital gains taxes, and killing off the domestic hydrocarbons industry? No Dem talking points please. I disagree with that assumption.

You are a little off today aren't you? You don't address my point of which party could control the Senate, and immediately jump to the sky is falling scenario.

I took you for a pretty balanced guy who could do math. We have seen this year how the market reacted to a smaller stim package. A Dem controlled govt will stim larger, I say 3T. Dems are looking to raise taxes half of Trump's cuts. Last I checked 28 < 35. You know, simple math.

And of course the stim is front loaded, whereas taxes are back loaded.

Total killing of energy which is an astounding large 3% of SPX? Do you think XOM will halt operations on Inauguration Day?

Why the concern on energy? You are ostensibly a spread trader. Why should you care? Are you bagholding XOM from 60?

I welcome your response if any, but I don't think you have anything else to say.

 

[bone]

LOL, 3% of SPX. Just completely sidestep the pre-fracking and post-fracking cost differentials for Natural Gas and Distillates. On businesses, manufacturing, households, and farms.

But the Senate will remain Repub and Wall Street loves gridlock so NP.

And we all get to witness the death rattle of an old man in obvious cognitive decline so there’s that. Kamala Harris has already committed Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to her still viable memory however.

Total killing of energy which is an astounding large 3% of SPX? Do you think XOM will halt operations on Inauguration Day?

Why the concern on energy? You are ostensibly a spread trader. Why should you care? Are you bagholding XOM from 60?
.

 

[tsznecki]

LOL, 3% of SPX. Just completely sidestep the pre-fracking and post-fracking cost differentials for Natural Gas and Distillates. On businesses, manufacturing, households, and farms.

But the Senate will remain Repub and Wall Street loves gridlock so NP.

And we all get to witness the death rattle of an old man in obvious cognitive decline so there’s that. Kamala Harris has already committed Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to her still viable memory however.

I notice you didn't address my other points. You know you are wrong and can't refute it.

Then you meltdown and spout some partisan garbage even as you ask me to keep it non political. #boneIsAHypocriticalCuckservative

To top it off you spew non relevant points about cost differentials. Because that really factors against QE and potential fiscal stim in bringing the market lower.

I'm starting to believe @destriero when he says you are full of shit @bone

#WaitingForBonesTriggeredResponse