S&P 500 looking very toppy

[PitchBlack]

History repeats itself. The shorters will be stopped again.
The trend was long, is long, and stays long.

Often when something looks very toppy it confirms the trend, it cannot be interpreted automatically as a short signal.
Unless you want to catch the top instead of waiting for a confirmation for the trend to turn short.
It might be well possible that the anticipators will run out of gas before the S&P runs out of gas.

 

[Mvic]

It all sounds so easy. I must be an idiot but I am still short.

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from Mvic:

It all sounds so easy. I must be an idiot but I am still short.

I guess i'm an idiot too.

I am short until S&P 1225 is blasted through, which it has not been thus far.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from Mvic:

It all sounds so easy. I must be an idiot but I am still short.

I think it is clear that the trend is long.
All we got are retracements, corrections. These things happen in every trend.
If you take a correction as a change of trend than you have a problem.
If you try to take each top, and think(or rather wish) that that top is the start of a change of trend, than it looks indeed like something idiotic.

To me it sounds more idiotic to try to take the (wrong) top than to get in at a lower price but in the right direction.

Not the price is the most important thing, but the direction.
First look at the right direction. Only after you found the direction you have to look for the best price. So don't trade just the opposite way.


If you are sure the trend is short, you're right to go short. But it might be necessary to look at the quality of your system than Going short and seeing the ES go 10 or 20 points higher should raise questions to me.

Just the thoughts of another idiot.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from rubberbird:

I guess i'm an idiot too.

I am short until S&P 1225 is blasted through, which it has not been thus far.

We did blast through the 1225 level a long time ago already.
I can't follow anymore.
First you said :1225 would be the top for months.
Then you said: it will not take out 1230.
Then you said: a rally to be sold at 1200-1205.
Then you said:1205 is thet top.
Then you said:1225 is thet top.
And on 07/14 you throw in the towel.

And now you say you are short?
So you never place a stop anywhere, and if you throw in the towel it doesn't mean you close your short ( what's then the meaning of throwing in the towel?)

Suddenly you are still short "until S&P 1225 is blasted through"?

I'm very confused. Or maybe an idiot as i cannot follow your trading anymore.

 

[Mvic]

Spike I appreciate what you are saying but looking at the daily chart for the last month I don't necessarily see a clear up trend, rather I see us banging on a ceiling of resistance. Maybe we will break through but my reading of the tape is that we are about to rollover for the summer or at least give the 1210 area another test. I freely admit that I could be wrong and may be stopped out anytime but this type of trade has worked well for me in the past and you have to go with what you know. I am glad that your system is working for you.

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from spike500:

[BWe did blast through the 1225 level a long time ago already.
I can't follow anymore.
First you said :1225 would be the top for months.
Then you said: it will not take out 1230.
Then you said: a rally to be sold at 1200-1205.
Then you said:1205 is thet top.
Then you said:1225 is thet top.
And on 07/14 you throw in the towel.

And now you say you are short?
So you never place a stop anywhere, and if you throw in the towel it doesn't mean you close your short ( what's then the meaning of throwing in the towel?)

Suddenly you are still short "until S&P 1225 is blasted through"?

I'm very confused. Or maybe an idiot as i cannot follow your trading anymore. [/B]

Spike, trading is about adaptation. If we did "blast through" 1225, you'd better tell this to the S&P index chart. I'm looking at it and it appears that there is stiff resistance right around there 1225-1230. No, 5 pts is not "blasting through". As far as my other comments, I adapt with the market, I did lose a few pennies when 1205 was penetrated. Did throw in the towel, FOR A DAY. But re-entered when I saw 1225 was still stiff resistance.

My humble advice to you: learn how to adapt and change your mind in a logical way, or you'll never make any money in this market. Market conditions change, and you'd better adapt your ideas to suit.

 

[brokerboy]

What’s blast to you? So you are still short homebuilders? You make good calls but then at times you don't make sence. At some point people cut losers before digging a big hole.

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from brokerboy:

What’s blast to you?

The same thing it is to everyone. Read the first post in this thread. Look at the S&P chart. Does it look like it "blasted through" to you? Hell no.

Blast through is probably a mere 1% to me, and it didn't come close to that. Give me a break dude, the chart speaks for itself. The resistance is mired all around 1225-1230, if you are looking at it without bias.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from rubberbird:

My humble advice to you: learn how to adapt and change your mind in a logical way, or you'll never make any money in this market. Market conditions change, and you'd better adapt your ideas to suit.

I must throw in the towel; i will never be able to adapt myself to the market as you do: first the top is 1225 for the coming months, then it becomes 1230, then it becomes 1200-1205, then it's again 1205, again 1225 and even when we did 1233 it was still short.
I'm not that flexible.

But for the last seven trading days we are constantly above the previous high that was build around 06/20. To me that's rather bullish in stead of bearish. But what i think is probably not logical.
It becomes more and more clear that i will never make money.