S&P 500 looking very toppy

Is the S&P 500 about out of gas?

  • Yes, rubberbird is usually correct

    Votes: 67 33.3%

  • No, there's more upside ahead

    Votes: 46 22.9%

  • I don't know/ I don't care/ the bird is an idiot

    Votes: 88 43.8%
  • Total voters
    201
I am 100% discretionary and the "rules" I use wouldn't mean much to anyone and are usually pretty basic but have served me well over the two decades I have been trading. I jumped the gun on Tol but shouldn't get hurt too bad with the stock as a hedge. With volatility as low as it is felt pretty safe buying 06 and 07 puts.

As for the ES short my theory is that the market is about to rollover for the summer and has gotten ahead of itself. Barring a late day rally I want to be short going in to the weekend.
 
Quote from rubberbird:

The S&P is about out of gas. Maximum number is around 1225, if it can make that. Since I get many PM's to post this type of info, I will appease the masses, so here we go...it is a toppin'
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Wrong again, for the ego-maniacal moron that never trades.
 
Quote from rubberbird:

Fair question..and deserving an answer.

It's another "intermediate" term top,
that will occur this week,
and last for a few months.
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Not only did the alleged "intermediate" term top called by The Bird not occur during the week of June 21st, but the S&P tacked on yet another +14 handles from his call ( 1213.61 on 6/21 ) to close at 1227.92 on Friday and complete a seven day winning streak to boot!

But hey, this won't prevent "BirdBrain" and his absurd attention-seeking ego from yet another thread with the same title within a month or two.

That, you can count on.
:D
 
Quote from Mvic:



As for the ES short my theory is that the market is about to rollover for the summer and has gotten ahead of itself. Barring a late day rally I want to be short going in to the weekend.
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MVIC, did you get short the ES? I see it a little ahead of itself also. I'm not sure if it will rollover for the summer though. Looking for some downside (might still have a little more on the upside).
 
Quote from Mvic:

Yes still short from 1230.50, stop just above 1234.
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I think you got the right idea.
I'm still looking at the 1225 area as heavy resistance.
Let the S&P prove me wrong.
 
Quote from Apex Capital:

Not only did the alleged "intermediate" term top called by The Bird not occur during the week of June 21st, but the S&P tacked on yet another +14 handles from his call ( 1213.61 on 6/21 ) to close at 1227.92 on Friday and complete a seven day winning streak to boot!

But hey, this won't prevent "BirdBrain" and his absurd attention-seeking ego from yet another thread with the same title within a month or two.

That, you can count on.
:D
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And you were the one calling for the Market to blast through 1225.00 as the Market prepared to dump 50 points to 1170.75. You are truly a perfect comparison of "The Pot calling the Kettle Black"! Leave the Bird alone and clean up your own yard of prescription bottles.
 
Quote from marketshark7:

We say some change of demand from staples to cyclicals over the past week - until evidence of heavier selling is seen how can anyone call a top?
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There are two ways to look at a top:

Like the newbies: they are afraid to miss the top so they try to catch every top they see. The result is that they are least 5 times stopped out for every good signal. If they are lucky they can wipe out the loss by the one top they did catch.

Like the pros: they wait till they see a top and get in. They will miss the top but they will also miss many bad trades. Fewer losses will largely compensate for the bad entry after the top was formed.
 
Quote from spike500:

There are two ways to look at a top:

Like the newbies: they are afraid to miss the top so they try to catch every top they see. The result is that they are least 5 times stopped out for every good signal. If they are lucky they can wipe out the loss by the one top they did catch.

Like the pros: they wait till they see a top and get in. They will miss the top but they will also miss many bad trades. Fewer losses will largely compensate for the bad entry after the top was formed.
More...

Very nice post.

I agree, it is far more important to be certain that the trend change has taken place than trying to get the best entry price. A mediocre entry WITH the trend is much better than the best entry against the trend - especially, if you are looking for large profits and a relaxed trading mindset. The effect of less than perfect entries can be overcome quite easily by making multiple entries to accumulate your full position.

As for those folks who try to pick tops, they get stopped out a lot and this leads to much frustration. So, when they finally pick a top successfully, they are so nervous they will lose their profits that they take a small profit of a couple of points and get out. In essence, they take a very disproportionate share of risk for a very small reward. In my observation, they are almost always losing traders.

In my own trading, I have always found much more reward in betting on continuations rather than reversals.
 
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