'S&P 500 is incredibly dangerous': Why Buffett's favorite valuation indicator is a flashing warning
- Thread starter Frederick Foresight
- Start date
We're going to face a sideway market,
it won't go down big time.
it won't go down big time.
Sometime between September and October we should see a big drop IMO, likely over 10%. Mark your calendar.
Let's see...
Fed Balance sheet trumps all indicators, charts, news, or anything else.
The Fed IS the market
The Fed IS the market
The question of which comes first is interesting. Is it anticipation of, or is it reaction to corporate peak earnings caused by people and entities running out of credit and deployable funds and/or corporate over-expansion? I tend to think it is reaction rather than anticipation. Peak earning are clearly a lagging indicator. Based on Q2 it seems we are still on the up slope. Certainly looks like a big correction is on the way though. Generally speaking it seems it is hard to have a recession without first making an earnings peak.
This is the period of typical market doldrums in any case. Perhaps sometime after November? What makes me think that events of this past 24 hours could result in election euphoria that could propel us into 2025? "Never short a market because you think it is too high" --- William O'Neil. That may be a alteration of what William O'Neil actually wrote, substituting "market" for "stock"?, but I see no reason why the same dictum would not apply to the "market" as well as individual stocks. Regardless, we'll never reap the top tick other than by blind luck.
This is the period of typical market doldrums in any case. Perhaps sometime after November? What makes me think that events of this past 24 hours could result in election euphoria that could propel us into 2025? "Never short a market because you think it is too high" --- William O'Neil. That may be a alteration of what William O'Neil actually wrote, substituting "market" for "stock"?, but I see no reason why the same dictum would not apply to the "market" as well as individual stocks. Regardless, we'll never reap the top tick other than by blind luck.
The Oracle is as usual right. Unfortunately, it always takes weeks, months until ratio is "near" 200%. Hardly any SHORT SELLER hedge fund survived last few years.
He already made his.Just keep following warren brother, you'll eventually make millions
I agree we're due for a drop. Valuations no longer make sense. Especially in light of what one can make risk free in treasuries.
Look at a long term SP500 PE ratio chart
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
I count 4 peaks higher than today over the last 100 years.
Margin debt is moving up too.
The more levered up it gets, the faster they're going to have to sell on any downslope.