s&p 500 Death Cross signal, reliable or not?
- Thread starter sp2020
- Start date
Every major correction will have a bear cross, but so will every decent pullback.
Notice how many bear crosses where tremendous buying opportunities.
It's up to you to determine if the bear cross is real or fake.
...Well, it's only crystal clear 20/20 in hindsight 
That's the beauty of the market -- it's part art. part science. Mazal tov
That's the beauty of the market -- it's part art. part science. Mazal tov
If it is being openly talked about by the herd on forums then it is very unlikely to be 'reliable'.
As always, data/research > opinions. This pretty well sums it up:
http://quantifiableedges.com/blog/
"So while not a reliable timing device, it is notable that the market has failed to generate long-term profits under the Death Cross. Traders that are concerned with preserving capital could utilize Death Crosses to possibly avoid big portions of nasty bear markets."
http://quantifiableedges.com/blog/
"So while not a reliable timing device, it is notable that the market has failed to generate long-term profits under the Death Cross. Traders that are concerned with preserving capital could utilize Death Crosses to possibly avoid big portions of nasty bear markets."
True, except for the "but so will every decent pullback" part. Since 2012, the best pullbacks have simply been the price touching the 100 to 200 Day MA areas. This was also true for most of the 2004-2007 bull markets and the late 1990s. The death cross is no holy grail, but it should make one cautious. The last cross-under was in 2011. They don't happen very often.