Ruthless trader

[Jack Haddad MD]

Originally Posted by Jack Haddad, 5/31/06, 11:22AM
Purchased 2 blocks of at 33.12, and wrote 200 June 32.50 calls at 1.45


Bought back 200 June 32.50 calls at .05 and wrote 200 July 32.50 at .80/contract.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Originally Posted by Jack Haddad 5/26/06, 1245PM
Decided to go with HOV instead. Snatched 3 blocks at 32.90 and wrote 300 June 30 calls for 3.40 in hope that my shares will get called away. I'll take
.50/contract for a return.


Bought back 300 June 30.00 calls at .05, and wrote the July 25.00 at 4.60

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

It has indeed retreated from the 70.55, habitually. The US incentives and open talks with Iran is not good for high oil prices. But, I bought 1 block at 66.21 and wrote 100 June 65.00 at 2.40/contract.

Bought back 100 June 65.00 calls at .05 and wrote the July 60.00 at 6.30

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

The book-to-bill ratio in regard to chip-tool orders reported in May was 1.12, suggesting that the market is expanding. Anything above 1.0 is highly regarded. This marks the 4th consecutive month where the ratio stood above 1.0 This simply means that chip-tool companies received $112 in orders for every $100 in sales. The San Jose Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International Group said that orders rose 3% to 1.65 billion in May from a revised 1.6 billion in April.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Since June 2003, Oracle has purchased close to 20 software companies ( PeopleSoft, Oblix, Retek, TripleHop, Times Ten, ProfitLogic, Context Media, i-flex, G-Log, Innobase, Thor Technologies, OctetString, TempoSoft, 360Commerce, Seibel Systems, SleepyCat, HotSip, Portal Software, and Demantra). Also, since 2003, Oracle has increased from 9.50 billion to 14 billion in revenues in sales for the year ending in May 2006; that said, this begs the question: has this growth increase been the result of merger acquisitions or true organic growth?!

Comments/opinions?

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Less than six years after the worst bear market in many investors' memories, people were eagerly dabbling in some of the world's riskiest markets (India, China, South America) in a craze fueled by hopes of recouping money lost when the technology bubble burst. Many of those sufferers are now in double-digit losses. Let's learn a leson all over again.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

The close on last Friday of 18.32 (INTC) closed above the 20EMA channel-- which is quite important. Far more critical, is the breach of the 18.36 resistance made on May 19, 2006. If we breach through that level, then 18.75 shall be the next wall. On 6/13 and 6/14, the high volume was impressive, and we need continued interest in the stock to keep the volume up. It will be very intereting as we approach the July 19 earnings announcement; It appears that were currently experiencing is an "earning-run-up" type of upside.

According to my check, Intel should warn for the second quarter announcement. However, a lot of that may have already been baked in the stock price.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Although Covello’s upgrade of INTC seems impersonal as a result of a broad semiconductor upgrade, I’m adamant of the belief that INTC’s current share price of 18.30 has baked all the bad news (including a potential warning call for the second quarter earnings). The stock trades at a discount 15 times 2007 earnings, and has plenty of liquid cash to help it survive the slump that it has endured since January of 2006. Because the downside potential is very limited, I would recommend an accumulate with a dollor-cost-averaging fashion hedged by covered call options.

Moreover, the slew of new chips due this summer (Woodcrest, Conroe)have both received great reviews from industry analysts; that said, market share loss to AMD should at the very least be halted or reversed.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

According to Robbie Bach, manager of the Xbox video game business, Microsoft is developing a music and video device to compete with Apples iPod and creating its own music service to rival Apples iTunes.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

An analyst from UBS by the name Tom Thornhill makes the case for INTC, Thornhill, argueing that the compnay has improved its competitive position versus Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and seems poised to show improving gross margins and operating margins for 2008.

While I agree with INTC's competitive improvement against AMD from the stance point of releasing new and better performing chips, I'm not finding any evidence yet of improving gross margins and operating costs. At times, it's beyong me how someone can make such a judgment call without proof of any balance sheet documentary.


Mr. Thornhill also states that INTC is accelerating year-over-year processor unit growth trends (I agree), sustaining growth with less volatility (strongly disagree).

Folks, I understand that INTC has lost nearly 7 points from the January 18, 2006 folloowing the release of their 4th quarter; that said, I totally concur that the stock is oversold. However, one must take into account several items: 1) The company has reduced their revenues by nearly 2 billion from the record 10.5 billion. Furthermore, aggressively trimming down prices on their Pantium D and Celeron chips in access of 60% is not going to help their revenues and gross margins, 2) exceptance of their new chips of Woodcrest, Conroe, and Merom is yet to be demonstrated by the consumer at large, and 3) market share loss to AMD still is a lingering issue.

All in all, this recent run-up in the last 4 days should be taken advantage of. As far as I'm concerned, it's merely a run-up in anticipation of earnings. It's very possible that we see a sell-off two weeks before earnings, either due to profit taking or a very likely warning on reduced 2nd quarter estimates.