Ruthless trader

[mschey]

Quote from Jack Haddad, MD:

Joe Osha, a colleague from Merrill Lynch, said the following in a letter to clients, "we expect Intel to begin taking share in desktop while defending its dominant position in mobile. The next big competitive inflection point for AMD is mid-2007, when AMD launches its first real mobile processor architecture. Until then, it looks like quite a fight between the two processor companies., with rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity at AMD to boot.” Osha kept his rating at “neutral.”

Bank of America’s Sumit Dhanda: “Various factors lead us to believe that the [worst] may not yet be behind for AMD. Specifically, we believe that 1) a continued deterioraton in AMD channel inventory, 2) difficult comps heading into Q3, which will revert back to a normal 13-week quarter, 3) margin impact from late quarter price cuts, which will be felt almost entirely in Q3, 4)strong likelihood of share loss to Intel in [the second hald], and 5)an elevated cost structure heading into ‘07, will result in further downward adjustments to AMD’s consensus forecast.” Dhanda cut his price target on the stock to $20, from $34, maintained a neutral rating and asserted that the valuation is “unattractive.”

Do you really buy the propaganda put out by the brokerage firms? My view is that they are more reactive, than proactive. Making this call 10 points ago when amd was in the 30's would have been brilliant, making it now, tell's me that there is more upside than downside.

Continued success to you!

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

AMD has been disputing evidence that Intel’s new chip (Woodcrest, Xeon 5100) is more energy-efficient, using a measurement called “Thermal Design Power." However, this claim has been received skeptically by some analysts, such as Thomas Weisel Partners. Weisel’s analysts concluded in a June 21 report: “We ran benchmarks on servers that indicated that Woodcrest’s power consumption is lower than similarly configured Opteron systems, and Woodcrest has superior performance to Opteron systems.”


Other analysts have also been issuing positive investor guidance on Intel. For example, Gus Richard, managing director of First Capital Albany in San Francisco, recently issued a “buy” recommendation for Intel, writing, “The reason for our upgrade is that we believe the company's new desktop (Conroe) and server (Woodcrest) will allow the company to regain the performance lead in these markets. We expect the company to regain lost market share starting in the second half of 2006.”

Meanwhile, Intel plans to aggressively increase the power and energy efficiency of its chips, and plans to release its own quad-core processor before AMD. DEG Vice President Pat Gelsinger told Information Week at the Woodcrest launch event in New York that INTC is going to be delivering quad-core before AMD even has a chance to respond to Woodcrest.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Intel is launching Montecito on July 18. The Montecito processor features twice the performance, almost triple the amount of L3 cache (24 megabytes), and 20 percent lower power consumption compared to its predecessor. It also boasts Intel® Virtualization Technology and Hyper-Threading Technology. The die contains 1.7 billion transistors, more than any other microprocessor in the world.

About 90,000 Itanium-based systems have been deployed around the world since 2002, and Montecito is expected to accelerate that momentum. More than 75 percent of the world's largest companies deploy Itanium-based systems. Businesses are moving away from proprietary systems and enjoying freedom of choice with the 8,000 software applications available for Itanium-based systems.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Quote from mschey:

Do you really buy the propaganda put out by the brokerage firms? My view is that they are more reactive, than proactive. Making this call 10 points ago when amd was in the 30's would have been brilliant, making it now, tell's me that there is more upside than downside.

Continued success to you!

You have to take into account that back when AMD was in the 30s, Woodcrest was only in the brewing. At that time, benchmark and industry analyst reviews were not available for evaluations/testing.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Bought 1 block of TSO at 72.80 on a gap down.

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Bought 2 blocks of TSO at 53.77 and wrote 200 July 52.50 calls at 2.05

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Quote from Jack Haddad, MD:

Bought 1 block of TSO at 72.80 on a gap down.

Sold 73.65

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Bought 5 blocks of ORCL at 14.33

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

Quote from Jack Haddad, MD:

Bought 5 blocks of ORCL at 14.33

Sold at 14.51

 

[Jack Haddad MD]

The SOX index, consisting of 19 chipmakers, hit an intraday low of 412.62 yesterday . The index has fallen about 146 points, or 26%, from its 52-week high reached in late January. This could be a buy ahead of next week's chip sector earnings report-- INTC, AMD, and BRCM.