Russia & Ukraine

kashirin said:
US army is weak and full of transes.
The only thing it can take in 2 weeks only its own asses.
You army never lost so many people because you just bomb stone age tribes. And avoid serious conflicts - which is smart for weak military

Any direct conflict with army like Ukraine (in its current condition) or Russia would just completely annihilate US army. The only thing US army can do is shoot cruise missiles from 2 thousand kilometers.
Any ground operation would be a complete disaster
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Putin-tank-one-year-later.png
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
With my usual caveat that Ukraine is up to their arse in risks and being overwhelmed, I nevertheless say that this strike on Tokmak is most definitely not going to play well in Moscow.

Tokmak is a major military and civilian supply rail junction where various rail lines intersect. Their number one short to medium term goal in the last several months has been to take Tokmak. They have not taken it but -either because they have advanced more or have himars now- they have made a solid strike on it. Just having Tokmak in artillery range now is a bigtime problem for Russia. It will only get worse. Those rail lines are supplying lots of ruskies on the various fronts.

Tokmak is a little less than halfway from the Dnieper River to Melitopol/near the Sea of Asov which the Ukrainians would need to reach to cut off the land bridge. Tokmak is about to become the new "Bakhmut." The russians will do anything to hold on to it. If they lose it they will totally lose the rail lines. And if the Ukrainians get far enough along to actually occupy it, then they can reach Melitopol with Himars. It might take them until next spring to do it if they can- but the Russians need to make sure that does not happen or they will be in a tough spot. The Ukrainians will cut the land bridge, take out the Kerch Bridge and then they will be trapped. No guns, no vodka. No nothing.

As usual, the Russians get to fight back and stop it if they can. Stay sober though.

There is the view by some- the Russians and probably some here- that the Israel scenario will stand in the way of some of this. That could be true but we don't know that yet. More likely the Americans and NATO will just give them higher range missiles and fighter planes as a workaround for Congress potentially reducing funding or Israel taking all the oxygen out of the room. At least I think, the Russians need to worry about that. Last month Biden said Ukraine will just get a few ATACMS. He could waive his wand next week and decide and cave in to his military who are saying just give em all you have they will take out Tokmak sooner rather than later. The congressional funding thing is murky because Biden apparently just moves existing equipment from America's supplies when he wants something.

Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible.

Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible. (msn.com)
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Israel is going to drain the supply of bombs, missiles and monies coming from the US. While, Ukraine has gotten $115 billion of US tax dollars with another $100 billion being requested by Joe Biden. My money is on Israel because who wants to back a losing cause? Ukraine is a lost cause and Russia has not even gone on its own counter offensive. Putin is just going on calling for more and more Russian soldiers in the hundreds of thousands. Reports are he wants 1,000,000 Russians to face off with NATO if they enter Ukraine and fight them directly. That may be what is stopping Russia for now. They want to draw NATO in before, attacking those NATO forces with a huge overwhelming force and inflicting huge casualties on NATO.
 
smallfil said:
Israel is going to drain the supply of bombs, missiles and monies coming from the US. While, Ukraine has gotten $115 billion of US tax dollars with another $100 billion being requested by Joe Biden. My money is on Israel because who wants to back a losing cause? Ukraine is a lost cause and Russia has not even gone on its own counter offensive. Putin is just going on calling for more and more Russian soldiers in the hundreds of thousands. Reports are he wants 1,000,000 Russians to face off with NATO if they enter Ukraine and fight them directly. That may be what is stopping Russia for now. They want to draw NATO in before, attacking those NATO forces with a huge overwhelming force and inflicting huge casualties on NATO.
More...

All those points being acknowledged, I will say again that what Russia needs to watch out for is that if support waivers in the U.S for various reasons that Biden will deal with it by passing longer and longer range missiles to the Ukrainians. Not much of a prediction anymore since it is already happening.

Ukraine has problems. BIG PROBLEMS. But if Ukraine reaches the Sea of Asov plus takes down the Kerch Bridge, Russia has big problems. The war will stall out there. But it will stall out in a position that is unfavorable to the Russians.
 
kashirin said:
US army is weak and full of transes.
The only thing it can take in 2 weeks only its own asses.
You army never lost so many people because you just bomb stone age tribes. And avoid serious conflicts - which is smart for weak military

Any direct conflict with army like Ukraine (in its current condition) or Russia would just completely annihilate US army. The only thing US army can do is shoot cruise missiles from 2 thousand kilometers.
Any ground operation would be a complete disaster
More...


ANALYSIS: Can the Russian Army Really Be that Stupid? (One Guess)
Over the past three weeks, Russia has thrown away something like two to four brigades of trained, regular army troops, against the very strongest Ukrainian fortifications, in the area of Avdiivka.
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/23112
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
All those points being acknowledged, I will say again that what Russia needs to watch out for is that if support waivers in the U.S for various reasons that Biden will deal with it by passing longer and longer range missiles to the Ukrainians. Not much of a prediction anymore since it is already happening.

Ukraine has problems. BIG PROBLEMS. But if Ukraine reaches the Sea of Asov plus takes down the Kerch Bridge, Russia has big problems. The war will stall out there. But it will stall out in a position that is unfavorable to the Russians.
More...

Russia is aware of the threat of the longer range missiles being supplied by the US and UK that is why they have been targeting the air bases of Ukraine everywhere. What they are seeking is to destroy those SU-24 fighter jets of Ukraine that is able to carry the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. Other fighter jets of Ukraine cannot carry such missiles. The US ATACMs are ground based long range missiles. Those Russia defends against with their S400 missile systems for longer ranger threats and Pantsir missile systems for shorter range threats. Considering the huge number of longer range missiles Ukraine has been firing lately, at Russia and Crimea, Russia has done a pretty good job of shooting most of them down. Of course, you will have some that get thru. The same goes for Russian missiles fired at Ukraine.
 
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