Russia & Ukraine

UsualName said:
It’s been said Russia thought Ukraine would fold like Afghanistan when invaded. The irony would be if Russia folds like Afghanistan when invaded.
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History repeating itself a bit.

The Bolsheviks were able to take Moscow because most of the Czar's army was off at the front in WW1. If all the troops had been at home, the Bolsheviks would have had a lot to deal with.

Fast forward to today.

Vlad's number one concern today is the defense of Moscow- but the lion's share of his troops are down in Ukraine. Not a good position to be in. Even if Prigo is contained his capacity for mischief and troublemaking is greatly enhanced in the Moscow region with so few troops left there.

The press and pundits have in the past talked at length about how the home guard in Moscow is super duper elite that trains 24/7 and is the best of the best and that Putin has kept them near and dear. But all of that is a crock. It is equally true that Putin has sent units from his home guard to Ukraine and the Ukrainians destroyed them like any other Russian unit. Not a lot of equipment left in Moscow either as a result of the fierce pressure to send it to the front.

So Wagner has left Ukraine and is not a fighting force there anymore but- worse yet for Vlad- is now fighting Vlad. And just when you think it could not get worse for Vlad, we learn that Kadyrov and his Chechen fighters have now left Ukraine to fight Wagner. Not sure who is fighting in Ukraine. Maybe Vlad can announce another mobilization to replace them. Let's see how that goes.

Sometime in the next 24 hours the street fighting in Rostov will begin as the Chechens show up to fight Wagner units. I would think. That will not have a good look to it. The idea was for Russia to be fighting Ukrainians in Ukraine, right?
 
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Let's see how things are going in Belarus... and why Lukashenko likely fled to Turkey.

Belarus-coup.png
 
We're seeing civil war in Russia, says Ukraine defence adviser

"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.

Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

Sak believes events in Russia could be the start of something extremely significant. He says the Kremlin has been lying “for such a long time… about the losses of the Russian army” and that sooner or later the situation would “implode and lead to a civil war”.

“What we're seeing now in Russia is a civil war,” adds Sak.
 
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