Tree,
Any commentary you can throw out regarding this new development or is it too soon to try and guess the possible scenarios going forward?
Russia & Ukraine
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
Any commentary you can throw out regarding this new development or is it too soon to try and guess the possible scenarios going forward?
Full statement:
Совет командиров ЧВК «Вагнер» принял решение: зло, которое несет военное руководство страны, должно быть остановлено. Они пренебрегают жизнями солдат, они забыли слово «справедливость», и мы вернем ее. Поэтому те, кто уничтожили сегодня наших парней, и десятки тысяч жизней русских солдат, будут наказаны. Я прошу никого не оказывать сопровотивление. [В противном случае] мы будем считать, что это угроза, и унитожать немедленно, включая любые блокпосты и авиацию. Я прошу всех сохранять спокойствие, не поддаваться на провокации, оставаться в своих домах, желательно по маршруту нашего следования не выходить на улицу.
После того, как мы закончим начатое, мы вернемся на фронт для защиты нашей родины. Президентская власть, правительство, МВД, Росгвардия и другие структуры будут работать дальше. Мы разберемся с теми, кто уничтожает русских солдат и вернемся на фронт.
The commanding council of the Wagner group has made a decision: the evil that the military leadership of the country has created has to be stopped. They don't care about the soldiers, they forgot the word "justice" and we will bring it back. That's why those who killed our guys today and destroyed tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.
I am asking everyone to provide no resistance to us. Otherwise we will consider you a threat and destroy you immediately, including blockposts and aviation. Everyone remain calm, stay in your home, and do not come out in the street along our route.
After we finish what we started, we will return to the front to defend our Motherland. The Presidential power, government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia and other structures will continue working. We will settle things with those who are killing us and return to the front.
Well well, Russia will have to nuke Russia.
Since it was probably going to happen accidentally anyway if they fired a old missile, could be a clever move.
Putin trying to bypass more ultimate power restrictions.
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Shiat is becoming real.
Moscow reportedly being fortified in anticipation of attacks by Wagner group, after Prigozhin calls for open rebellion.
And elsewhere in Russia.
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So long, and thanks for all the fish eggs.
Well as a Romanian friend predicted at the beginning, Putin wins Ukraine or wins Russia more completely.
Well as a Romanian friend predicted at the beginning, Putin wins Ukraine or wins Russia more completely.
Sounds farfetched.
Of note, Prigo continues to go out around Putin and give him a pass and give him an out by positioning Putin as a victim of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Which would mean that Prigo has decided to follow a course of just ousting the senior military leadership rather than trying to replace Putin.
The problem there is that Putin trusts Shoigu and Gerasimov 100% even if they are inept. Putin has moved into bunker mentality where he more concerned about having loyalist who will not take him out than he is with how competent they are on the battlefield. Prigo is more competent on the battlefield and Prigo sees all the scumbaggery of the senior military leadership and Putin knows that but he also knows that if Prigo gets into the position of replacing Shoigu that eventually he will buddy up with Kadyrov and take Putin out.
In a way, even though Prigo is still being a prick he is also still licking Putin's boots, thinking that he can save Putin as a useful idiot for his own plan. In some ways, it is just Russian history 101, with lots of dark and murky palace coups and intrigue. In WW1 the Russian insiders confronted the Czar for his military failures and let him stay in power but took military command away from him. And then not long after he and his family were killed by the Bosheviks. And round and round we go. Then years later, Gorbachev went for vacation to the Black Sea and there was a coup that overthrew him. But the insiders reversed it but nevertheless demoted Gorby and then moved him out shortly thereafter. And round and round we go.
And even though Putin probably is not seriously sick with anything, that narrative could be used to help him with an exit if needed.
I could see some situation like that down the road with Putin. There is an election coming up next year and the insider hardliners and outside hardliners like Prigo might form a coalition and let Putin have a planned exit related to the election - based on some bullshit "we have accomplished our goals" narrative- while also clearly moving him along. If Prigo does not attain top level defense or presidential power in the near future, then he and Kadyrov will both/each take regions of Russian for themselves. Sort of a warlord arrangement whether they are officially part of Russia but they are no-go zones for Moscow authority. They might even coordinate with Ukraine on that.
It's a mess.
This Prigo thing is a threat to Moscow though. As I said, Prigo is trying out this little attempt to work with Vlad and make Shoigu/Gerasimov the bad guys but I doubt that that will work. And if Vlad ends out just going after Wagner instead, or continuing to allow it, it is really dangerous for Putin. Prigo has the ability to swing over and become "pro-Russian" in a way that the rebel insurgent forces in Russia claim they are. They could join forces very easily and make it a pro-Russian but anti-putin rebellion and not to forget that the Russian insurgents are already coordinating with fighting/for Ukraine. Prigo is not going to fight for Ukraine but if Vlad tries to wipe wagner out it would only take Prigo a micro-second to an agreement with Ukraine that wagner and insurgents will keep the Russians out of the border regions/oblasts in return for Ukrainian support. Then Prigo and Kadyrov will set up fiefdoms in those regions. And Ukraine will just say "I don't give a fuck what you do. Just keep Putin's military back from our borders."
What a mess.
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