So Russia has endured over 100,000 dead and another 100,000 wounded according to most accounting. Let's see the casualty figures for Ukraine.
Ukraine lost fewer than 15,000 troops, EU countries’ intelligence says
https://www.euractiv.com/section/de...-15000-troops-eu-countries-intelligence-says/
Ukraine’s armed forces, gearing up to retake the eastern city of Bakhmut this spring, have altogether lost fewer than 15,000 troops since the Russian invasion began last February, according to excerpts of an internal EU memo seen by EURACTIV.
Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, very few numbers related to personnel and equipment losses on the Ukrainian side have been made publicly available, with Kyiv and its Western allies reluctant to reveal any critical information to Russia.
In November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen came under fire for publishing and then unpublishing a video containing what appeared then to be a very high estimate of 100,000 killed Ukrainian military officers,
prompting a backlash from Kyiv.
Around the same time, nine months into the war, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General, Mark Milley,
estimated that both Ukraine and Russia had lost around 100,000 people each before the winter started
.
Russian losses are higher than Ukrainians
In what appears to be one of the first semi-official estimates that made its way to the West, an internal document in the hands of the EU diplomatic service, seen by EURACTIV, put the losses of Ukraine’s armed forces at 13,000 personnel killed during combat, with an additional 35,000 wounded in action.
The document also noted that according to US estimates, Kyiv has lost 17,500 personnel killed in action, and a total of 124,000 to 131,000 people disabled, whether from wounds, death or disappearance, or other reason.
Still, the document, based on the Ukrainian communication to member states, media reports, and intelligence leaks, assessed that the Ukrainian losses are lower than the US estimates.
The figures in the document seen by EURACTIV show “that the volume of losses is globally very big on both sides,” Romain Mielcarek, a journalist specialised in influence strategies in conflict, told EURACTIV.
The internal memo seen by EURACTIV said Ukrainian officials asses that 185,000 Russians were killed during the course of the war and 555,000 were wounded.
It compared these figures with the data
leaked from US intelligence, reported by the
New York Times, suggesting that the Russian Armed Forces have suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including 43,000 killed in action, since February 24 last year.
US figures match
British intelligence estimates that around 200,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded since the invasion.
“This shows that wounded Russians will most likely not make it from the frontline, whereas the evacuation, rescue, and casualty management protocols appear to be much more effective on the Ukrainian side,” Mielcarek said.
“Research shows that if the soldiers have trust in their side to save them, they are more inclined to take initiatives and risks, which makes these figures interesting, strategically.”
This Ukrainian’s ability to save their wounded is also a testament to the training they receive from Western military powers, Mielcarek said.
Kyiv’s armed forces currently benefit from different types of training organised by its allies. The European Union launched its military mission, EUMAM, last autumn, which aims at training at least 30,000 troops.
The United Kingdom and the United States also provide military courses on different equipment.
Figures ‘bad for morale’
Western diplomats and military officials have told EURACTIV that although loss estimates are frequently cited in Western intelligence and media reports, it is nearly impossible to have the casualty toll on either side officially confirmed.
“Both sides refrain from giving figures, in order for them to avoid the other side using it as a tool for propaganda,” Mielcarek told EURACTIV.
On the Ukranian side especially, “it is a communication strategy: they must take into account the impact on their troops, on their populations, on the opposite side, on their allies’ morale [in providing military support],” Mielcarek also said.
General Claudio Graziano, the former chairman of the EU’s military committee, told EURACTIV on the sidelines of the European Defence and Security Summit on Thursday (11 May), that full Russian losses “will probably be known only after the end of the war”.
“In any case, it’s going to be one the bloodiest war in the European territory.”
Russia is still mobilising and training fresh troops to send to the battlefield, whereas Western ammunition production and the EU’s delivery plans for Ukraine will not come into effect earlier than a year from now, he warned.
Different military strategies
The Kremlin
ordered a war mobilisation last September, calling up around 300,000 Russian men to fight in Ukraine.
According to the United Kingdom’s intelligence, 97% of the Russian army is currently in Ukraine, EURACTIV has learned.
But although this was meant to provide reinforcement on the battlefield, Western officials said the move was merely about sending poorly trained personnel to the battlefield as cannon fodder, causing Russia to suffer heavy losses.
“One of the most important aspects is in the organisation of the Russian Federation’s army, which is largely inherited from the Soviet model, is that they rely on two main pillars to get the edge: the large volumes of men sent to the front, and the massive use of artillery,” Mielcarek said.
While such a strategy “implies consequent volumes of human casualties”, it has almost always been accepted in the public opinion, he said, excluding the time the Soviet Union was pushed to retreat from Afghanistan in 1989 after suffering heavy losses and a backlash from its own population.
StratCom
However, Mielcarek pointed to different communication strategies on the two sides.
“Even though the Ukrainians refuse to reveal figures, they show their dead, they have invited journalists to cover ceremonies, take pictures, interview the survivors.”
For Ukraine, the priority is the supply of military equipment, as well as sanctions on the Russian economy.
Kyiv has been regularly asking its allies to provide modern military equipment, such as tanks and fighter jets, as well as long-range missiles.
On the EU’s side, a strong focus has also been put on supplying Kyiv with
ammunition.
The European Commission proposed this week a
new package of sanctions against Russia, to continue targeting its military-industrial complex and punish any circumvention of sanctions by other countries, such as Iran or China, which are supplying Moscow with the technologies it needs to continue the war.
“Russia has already lost, but for Ukraine to win, it will take time,” General Graziano said.
