Russia & Ukraine

vanzandt said:
Do you really think he would go into Poland?
I have no idea. Doesn't seem like a real smart idea though, knowing that NATO would then be bound to unleash on him with all their might. I mean, the man can't be that stupid. I wouldn't think. I mean realistically he has to know "If I invade Poland, NATO comes in and destroys us conventionally... so my only option is to answer with nukes." Which basically boils down to... if I invade Poland, Russia gets destroyed with nukes too. Soooo, despite what people say... I don't think he'd go into Poland. Unless he doesn't care if Moscow gets turned into an ashtray. Which doesn't seem to fit with his love of Mother Russia and his aspirations to be one of the "great" leaders in history. It's just not a logical conclusion.
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Ironically, if Putin started to move toward Poland, the west/nato/Ukraine will deal with that by ramping up efforts to take Crimea which will require Putin to commit resources that he does not have he over in that direction. And it helps to keep him away from nato countries. Ukraine wants to do it anyway just to keep them away from the rest of Ukraine. The west is somewhat lukewarm on the idea but if Putin starts acting like he has enough power to go elsewhere, the west will support Ukraine in opening up a full front there in Crimea.

I saw that Bloomberg interview too.
 
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vanzandt said:
Guy on Bloomberg just now, some "expert", was saying what I what I have been saying all along. Putin doesn't care about the body count. He can and will fight this war into perpetuity. Wave after wave of young men into a meat grinder. Like WW1. Loss rate is 5:1. He's playing the long game on the assumption the West will grow weary of throwing money into a war with no end. China continues to buy his oil and gas, along with other nations, so while he might not be rolling in cash, he can certainly keep it going.

I don't know what the answer is. We could do a strike out of the blue and probably take out all of his missile silo's in a matter of hours, but like I have said, it's the subs that matter, even with the best ASW, they're tough to pinpoint at any given time. One nuke on DC or NYC is too great of a cost to risk.

We could probably take Putin out personally, with a quick strike, but again, I would almost bet his military commanders are under orders to let the nukes fly if it were to happen. And he may have told us that in regards to arming Ukraine with fighter jets and attack bombers. Not sure about that one though.

And as an aside, Biden's proposed taxes on capital gains to 39% and folks making over $400K, you can bet the "wtf are we doing in Ukraine" rhetoric is gonna ramp up. Over time at least. I mean will Ukraine funding basically turn into something like Social Security or Medicare(?), ie its just part of the budget that can't go away.

I dunno. I don't see a solution.
What are you guys thinking?
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This does bring up an interesting question. How long will the West support a long war in Ukraine? Certainly Russia has caused NATO to unify behind supporting in the past year. If this war in Ukraine goes on for a few more years while Putin throws in manpower and equipment while not caring about the harm caused to Russia -- how strong is the western backbone? Political changes in leadership in the U.S., Germany, France and other larger wealthy western countries could lead to financial & military support being dropped for Ukraine. While eastern European nations like Poland and the Baltic countries which have directly experienced Russian oppression will likely hang in there providing support -- how long could they go on providing meaningful money and equipment to Ukraine? Seeing the equipment actually comes from the wealthy Western nations.

Ukrainians will never surrender. How long can they count on the West?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...urrender-how-long-can-they-count-on-the-west/
 
gwb-trading said:
Zelensky: "Short version? The reason why we have not retreated from Bakhmut is the hunting of Russians there has been very, very fruitful. We have not reached our bag limit yet".

Zelensky warns of ‘open road’ through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreat
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/07/euro...elensky-cnn-interview-bakhmut-intl/index.html

View attachment 308186
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The bottle reads Bakhmut Ukraine.

bottle-Rus.png
 
the war will (most likely) not end because russia runs out of "soldiers"

the question is, how sick madvlad really is (i hope he is) - and i don't mean his brain

sooner or later, something strange might happen within russia (probably overnight)

and then - let's see
 
Atlantic said:
the war will (most likely) not end because russia runs out of "soldiers"
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Unfortunately, there are enough idiots in Russia who will walk like sheep to the slaughter.

But - the question is, is there enough equipment for them to be effective on the frontlines. There are all indications that there are already huge problems with that and they will only get worse. You cannot advance or even defend just with manpower alone. Especially untrained and unmotivated manpower.
 
Atlantic said:
the war will (most likely) not end because russia runs out of "soldiers"

the question is, how sick madvlad really is (i hope he is) - and i don't mean his brain

sooner or later, something strange might happen within russia (probably overnight)

and then - let's see
More...

The Russians have pretty much settled into sending the lowest of the low Russians, those who are imprisoned and sick etc, into battle with a private military force. It’s so dirty but that’s what you get with the Russians at this point They can keep it going for a while like this. Even if they are losing a couple hundred a day there are tens of thousands the Russians can send into battle.

The thing is that it’s not a winning strategy. All it is doing is keeping the real Russian soldiers from getting real combat experience while the dregs get slaughtered.

As to something happening to Putin, I doubt it at this point. They are in a comfy place right now with this strategy. Still attacking and not taking too many loses the Russian populis will get worked up about. We have at least another year of this to go, with more years possible.
 
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