Russia & Ukraine

Wow, this is a quick but weird and chilling read.

Vultures circling overhead in Russia getting in line for the economic turf wars. As I said last week "Mexican cartels will soon be arriving in Moscow." Not Mexican of course, but the vatnik version.

There have been signs of this coming in the last couple weeks. One, is that it is obvious that the Wagner guy is cannibalizing Putin's dirty economic business in Africa now that Putin is tied up. He used to take care of it FOR Putin. The other sign has been that military analysts have been trying to figure out why Gazprom has been putting this massive private security force together. Beginning to become clear now. Every power player building up their little army now. What could go wrong there?

Obviously some Ukrainian bias in this article, but nevertheless, it is clear as day that there is truthiness to it too. You know that whole Oligarch and Corruptocracy in Russia includes a lot of power players that are basically economic warlords. And they smell blood and cash and turf wars coming.


Andrey Piontkovsky: There are 27 PMCs in Russia, but they are not needed for the war against Ukraine
https://odessa-journal.com/andrey-p...y-are-not-needed-for-the-war-against-ukraine/
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
Wow, this is a quick but weird and chilling read.

Vultures circling overhead in Russia getting in line for the economic turf wars. As I said last week "Mexican cartels will soon be arriving in Moscow." Not Mexican of course, but the vatnik version.

There have been signs of this coming in the last couple weeks. One, is that it is obvious that the Wagner guy is cannibalizing Putin's dirty economic business in Africa now that Putin is tied up. He used to take care of it FOR Putin. The other sign has been that military analysts have been trying to figure out why Gazprom has been putting this massive private security force together. Beginning to become clear now. Every power player building up their little army now. What could go wrong there?

Obviously some Ukrainian bias in this article, but nevertheless, it is clear as day that there is truthiness to it too. You know that whole Oligarch and Corruptocracy in Russia includes a lot of power players that are basically economic warlords. And they smell blood and cash and turf wars coming.


Andrey Piontkovsky: There are 27 PMCs in Russia, but they are not needed for the war against Ukraine
https://odessa-journal.com/andrey-p...y-are-not-needed-for-the-war-against-ukraine/
More...

civil war in russia, soon to come?!
 
The U.S. is tired of Putin holding our citizens hostage.

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/united-states-tells-citizens-depart-russia-immediately-2023-02-13/

MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.

"U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions."

"Do not travel to Russia," it added.

"Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence," the embassy said.

"Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against U.S. citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against U.S. citizens engaged in religious activity."

The Kremlin said it was not the first time U.S. citizens had been asked to leave Russia. The last such public warning was in September after President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation.

"They (warnings) have been voiced by the State Department many times in the last period, so this is not a new thing," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

The Federal Security Service (FSB) said in January that prosecutors had opened a criminal case against a United States citizen on suspicion of espionage.

Last December, U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner was released in a prisoner swap, having been sentenced to nine years in a penal colony for possessing vape cartridges containing cannabis oil - which is banned in Russia - after a judicial process labelled a sham by Washington.

Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine, is serving a 16-year sentence in a Russian penal colony after being convicted of espionage charges that Washington also says are a sham.
 
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Atlantic said:
civil war in russia, soon to come?!
More...

Putin will try to head off any chaos by imposing martial law, and blame the need for martial law on Nato.

It's a vicious cycle. The martial law will make things even worse.

Not sayin, the martial law thing is going to happen in the immediate term but it will come at some point. The thing is that Putin is up for election next year and he is looking for a reason and a mechanism for canceling that election. As discussed, yes, Putin controls the outcome but he is not up for all the hoopla from other candidates as the election approaches. He can suppress them but it takes a lot of work and the grumbling of the people does seep through. or burst through from time to time. He has opposition from the hardliners too so that is sort of a new inconvenience for him.
 
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