Russia & Ukraine

Chief Executive Leadership Institute Releases CELI Research Insights: “Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy”

August 26th 2022

See https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/chi...arch-insights-business-retreats-and-sanctions

Months ago I posted my opinion that the Russian People will bring this war to a close. Nothing has dissuaded me from that view. Putin must be thinking that if his forces can hold out until Winter the resolve of the NATO nations will weaken. This report indicates that we can expect the opposite, and that Putin is clearly Wrong. Now the questions are: "How much longer will it take before the smell of Russian Blood wafts into Western Europe?", and "What form will a post-Putin, Russian Government take?" Hopefully not more Gangster Capitalism.

 
Let's check
piezoe said:
Chief Executive Leadership Institute Releases CELI Research Insights: “Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy”

August 26th 2022

See https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/chi...arch-insights-business-retreats-and-sanctions

Months ago I posted my opinion that the Russian People will bring this war to a close. Nothing has dissuaded me from that view. Putin must be thinking that if his forces can hold out until Winter the resolve of the NATO nations will weaken. This report indicates that we can expect the opposite, and that Putin is clearly Wrong. Now the questions are: "How much longer will it take before the smell of Russian Blood wafts into Western Europe?", and "What form will a post-Putin, Russian Government take?" Hopefully not more Gangster Capitalism.

More...

However Europe will have some struggles with gas and heating this winter due to Putin's stupidity and aggression...

Europe has little option but to rescue consumers from the energy crisis
With no end to Ukraine war in sight and transition away from Russian gas ongoing, scale of support will have to be massive
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...on-rescue-consumers-energy-crisis-ukraine-war
 
gwb-trading said:
Let's check


However Europe will have some struggles with gas and heating this winter due to Putin's stupidity and aggression...

Europe has little option but to rescue consumers from the energy crisis
With no end to Ukraine war in sight and transition away from Russian gas ongoing, scale of support will have to be massive
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...on-rescue-consumers-energy-crisis-ukraine-war
More...

This article notes- as many do- that Russia has a long history of toughing it out in wars- the Battle of Leningrad being Exhibit A. However, some astute historians point out that Russia tends to be extremely tough in wars defending the homeland but to get into trouble in wars of choice where it got adventuresome: AFG being an example and in recent history the Russo-Japanese war where- like Ukraine- they got ballsy and adventuresome and got their arse soundly and roundly kicked for years as the Japanese chased them around the world to humiliate them. Finally the Americans, Teddy Roosevelt, negotiated a peace.

Viewers can decide for themselves which category (defense of the homeland vs. war of choice) that the attack on Ukraine falls into.

The other thing that I never hear being talked about is the scenario where Europe caves or the predictable suspects do) and starts buying russian gas and oil but they continue to participate in all the other sanctions particularly if they are feeling guilty about buying the Ruskie oil. There is a part of me that thinks that might just take enough pain out of the system for them to keep the technology and business sanctions going- the ones that will hurt him long haul. And we know he is going to get revenue for that gas and oil somewhere so - or most of it anyway- so the argument that you are funding his war machine is kind of weak. Mind you, I am not advocating that scenario but I am not as sure as Vlad that if the germans and the french caved and bought enough energy to get through the winter that that would be a win for Putin. It could be if they caved beyond the survival energy, but does not have to be. It may just mean that buying putin gas to get through the winter lets them survive to continue to oppose Russia. Probably a couple people here will misinterpret what I am saying and try to stick it up my arse, but that's fine. I expect no less.
 
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Don;t know if this is true or not. - article below. We shall see.

On the other hand there should be no surprise that some/many high level military or public officials would want to defect or give information to the west. After all, Putin is firing and publicly humiliating many generals and allegedly failed high officials week after week. Just the law of large numbers would say that there are disgruntled and humiliated people there who want to go over to the other side, and if the CIA gives them a pathway and some bucks.....well...it greases the process.

On the other hand I see article after article of Ukrainian officials saying they have knowledge of turncoats in high places in Moscow. I don't know what they know but they know that Putin is fragile and paranoid these days so they can rattle his pysche considerably just by starting those rumors. Which in turn causes Putin to get even more paranoid and remove even more people who then want to defect or give intelligence to the west as a way of payback to Putin.

Probably this article is complete disinformation, but it will get back to Putin and he will poison one of buddies just to make sure he is not the one getting ready to defect. That's fine. Not the first time he has done that.

Bitter blow to Vladimir Putin as Kremlin official expected to defect over Ukraine war

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bitter-blow-vladimir-putin-kremlin-27853456
 
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