Russia & Ukraine

Sprout said:
They called it as a possibility, seems like their opinion is worth quite a bit.

"The nature of the reported Russian buildup suggests the expanded war, if it happens, will differ fundamentally from the past seven years of simmering stalemate. Russia has the ability to carry out a large-scale joint offensive operation involving tens of thousands of personnel, thousands of armored vehicles, and hundreds of combat aircraft. It would likely begin with devastating air and missile strikes from land, air, and naval forces, striking deep into Ukraine to attack headquarters, airfields, and logistics points. Ukrainian forces would begin the conflict nearly surrounded from the very start, with Russian forces arrayed along the eastern border, naval and amphibious forces threatening from the Black Sea in the south, and the potential (increasingly real) for additional Russian forces to deploy into Belarus and threaten from the north, where the border is less than 65 miles from Kyiv itself.

In short, this war will look nothing like the status quo ante of conflict in Ukraine, and that undermines the first justification for U.S. aid: deterring Russia. The Ukrainian military has been shaped to fight the conflict in the Donbass and thus poses little deterrent threat to Russia; provision of U.S. weapons can do nothing to change that. If Moscow is willing to launch a major war, invading the second-largest country in Europe with a population of over 40 million, all while absorbing tremendous economic punishment from the West, then it is unlikely to be deterred by whatever U.S. military assistance can be delivered in the coming weeks. The only weapons systems that could plausibly impose costs that could change Russia’s calculus, such as surface-to-air missiles and combat aircraft, are ones that the United States would be highly unlikely to provide the Ukrainians. And, regardless, they could not be procured, delivered, and be made operational—to say nothing of getting the Ukrainian operators trained up to use them—in time to have an impact on this crisis. Large, modern systems require extensive training and material support."
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Have you been following the events ?
Because the text above sounds dellusional.

It's 21'st century. It's no longer a battle of Stalingrad.

Even the Russians have VPNs & phones to know the reality & casualty rates. You can no longer give people some vodka & make them to charge without giving a rifle.

What full scale war ? They're using tanks that were brought from the borders of China/Finland.
(Has markings of those regions)

Orcs down on artilery because of few Himars that NATO provided.

As they get weaker, lose comanders & search for drones in Iran, Ukraine is getting more weapons & more experience.
 
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Indeed the '3-days- to- Kiev" mentality ruled the day.

The Russians bought into it. And Vlad convinced Xi of it when he met with him the week or so before at the Olympics. Xi wanted it to be quick and tidy because he did not want to mess up the global economy and he wanted Putin to demonstrate that taking "historical lands" would not necessarily descend into a disaster- since he has a similar move in mind.

And the Americans bought into it too.

The American Beltway geniuses/Milley etc have acknowledged that the Americans knew in October that Putin was going to invade - which has raised many a question as to why nothing was done to move faster to help the Ukrainians.

That brings us back to the 3-day factor. The Americans were still struggling with a deeply humiliating withdrawal from AFG- and emotions aside- a serious, serious, serious loss of equipment to our enemy. So for obvious reasons- and by putting two and two together- some pundits argue that the Americans did not want to put any equipment into Ukraine because they expected the Russians to own it by the end of the week. Even if one does not buy that argument hook, line, and sinker, you have to admit that there is a certain logic to it.
 
Bring out the elderly....

Putin's Dad's Army: Elderly volunteers are being recruited for the frontline amid claims Moscow is struggling for manpower as fighting continues to rage in Ukraine (and they don't look too thrilled about it)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...e-amid-claims-Moscow-struggling-manpower.html
  • Video footage shows recruits from far eastern Russia learning how to shoot
  • The recruits live more than 5000 miles from Ukraine but will be sent to frontline
  • Many were middle-aged and elderly men who did not seem happy to be training
  • Comes as the head of MI6 claimed Putin's invasion may have to 'pause' in the coming weeks due to lack of manpower
(More at above url)
 
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, head of the Russian navy Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov and other participants attend a parade marking Navy Day in Saint Petersburg, Russia July 31, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

On Navy Day, Putin Cast United States As Main Rival
Reuters July 31, 2022
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ST PETERSBURG, Russia, July 31 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a new naval doctrine which cast the United States as Russia’s main rival and set out Russia’s global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and in the Black Sea.

Speaking on Russia’s Navy Day in the former imperial capital of St Petersburg founded by Tsar Peter the Great, Putin praised Peter for making Russia a great sea power and increasing the global standing of the Russian state.

After inspecting the navy, Putin made a short speech in which he promised that what he touted as Russia’s unique Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, cautioning that Russia had the military clout to defeat any potential aggressors.

Shortly before the speech, he signed a new 55-page naval doctrine, which sets out the broad strategic aims of Russia’s navy, including its ambitions as a “great maritime power” which extend over the entire world.

The main threat to Russia, the doctrine says, is “the strategic policy of the USA to dominate the world’s oceans” and the movement of the NATO military alliance closer towards Russia’s borders.

Russia may use its military force appropriately to the situation in the world’s oceans should other soft powers, such as diplomatic and economic tools, be exhausted, the doctrine says.

Putin did not mention the conflict in Ukraine during his speech but the military doctrine envisages a “comprehensive strengthening of Russia’s geopolitical position” in the Black and Azov seas.

It also set out the Arctic Ocean, which the United States has repeatedly said Russia is trying to militarize, as an area of particular importance for Russia.

Russia’s vast 37,650 km (23,400 mile) coastline, which stretches from the Sea of Japan to the White Sea, also includes the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.

Putin said the delivery of Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles to the Admiral Gorshkov frigate would begin within months. The location of their deployment would depend on Russian interests, he said.

“The key thing here is the capability of the Russian navy… It is able to respond with lightning speed to all who decides to infringe on our sovereignty and freedom.”

Hypersonic weapons can travel at nine times the speed of sound, and Russia has conducted previous test-launches of the Zircon from warships and submarines over the past year.

In Crimea, Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said Ukrainian forces struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Russian-held port city early on Sunday, wounding five members of staff.

(Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, William Maclean)
 
BTW, reading Russian "voenkors" - war correspondents, there is definitely a sense of desperation there. There is more and more expressions of hope for something - anything - to happen that would change the situation. One is fervently hoping that Taiwan will distract US from supplying Ukraine. Another is (I am not kidding) hoping that North Korea will send 100,000 (!!!) soldiers to help Russians in Ukraine. Another is hoping that the Serbia-Kosovo conflict will help. Kinda pathetic...
 
terr said:
Their thesis is completely wrong. They were the "3 days to Kiev" guys.

As in: "In short, the military balance between Russia and Ukraine is so lopsided in Moscow’s favor that any assistance Washington might provide in coming weeks would be largely irrelevant in determining the outcome of a conflict should it begin. Russia’s advantages in capacity, capability, and geography combine to pose insurmountable challenges for Ukrainian forces tasked with defending their country. The second argument for aid—changing the course of the war—thus does not hold water."

Bull. Ukrainians held even without the "assistance Washington provided in coming weeks". And yes, the weapons Washington is NOW providing did and do change the course of the war.
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The fact is Ukraine is still outgunned 10/1 on long range artillery and rockets. Russians still have their long range bombers, warships, subs, etc. all firing multiple types of missiles. Most Ukrainian positions are static in holes in the ground also, called trenches. That is why Zelensky is raising his 1,000,000 army to send to the frontlines. They have to send in all those bodies but, they never even see most of the Russians far, far away. A lot of them being killed in huge numbers in artillery barrages daily. Funny, they always talk about Russian casualties, never talking about Ukrainian soldiers being killed in their trenches in huge numbers with no place to hide. This is a static war but, very deadly, none the less. There are very few places to hide when the war is fought in the plains. It is all flat terrain.
 
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