Russia & Ukraine

gwb-trading said:
Yeah... whatever.... I guess it is sad for you that western governments are "cancelling" oligarchs and propagandists who support Putin in an endless wave of war crimes.

Tell us how you don't support sanctioning (which is the proper term here) these individuals and associated companies -- so we have your position clearly on record.
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We know you're on record carrying Israel's water and spouting their propaganda talking points in the Palestine question. I still wouldn't ask our government to sanction you for your retarded beliefs.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
A lot of truthiness in this short article/podcast. As I said way back, being a Mainer in origin I tend to think more about the impact of winter than the average bear, and Putin needs to do whatever he is going to do by November or things will get much worse for both sides. It is just a matter of which side. Even things like the foliage being down after October will have a major impact. Trying to hide a tank and troops in the winter is not all that easy.

And yes, Putin has major plans to make winter rough for the Europeans so there is that - but ultimately it is about how it is going with his troops on the front.

Russia has the advantage just based on the numbers. They have to keep their "numbers" there in the winter though. A lot of them want to and are going home already though.

As Kamala says "the passage of time" is a thing. And indeed it is. It may not be November yet but you can see it from here.

Putin Is Dreading Winter
Ukraine will likely have some natural advantages over Russia’s invading force when the cold and snow set in.


What the Russians are going to have to do is keep cycling troops in and out of these tough forward positions in bitterly cold weather. And I think one thing that we haven’t talked about enough—I mean, we in the West haven’t talked about enough—is that a lot of these Russian troops that are being sent there [are] not Russians. They’re not ethnically Russians. They’re going out, and they’re getting kids from the boondocks and some of the non-Russian areas of the Russian Federation and sending them off to the Ukrainian border. And that’s hard enough to do under the best conditions—but when a central European winter sets in, that’s going to be a lot more difficult.

https://www.thebulwark.com/putin-is-dreading-winter/
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Winter will be a time of stalemate in eastern Ukraine. The Russian objective now appears to grab the eastern regions of Ukraine, declare they are part of Russia via fake "referendums" in September, and then hold these regions through the winter. This will require Russia to adopt a defensive posture to hold their lines. We already see this in the photos of pre-constructed concrete bunkers being brought in via train by Russia.

The Ukraine objective is also pushed by time. They need to mount an offensive to take back the southern Ukraine area (which they deem more important than the east due to ports, etc.) before winter arrives. Once winter arrives Russia will be firmly established with defensive positions in the east and the south. The combination of bad winter weather and defensive obstacles will make it difficult to seize these areas back in the cold months -- coupled with the reality that the wet spring months are not helpful for an offense either.

Seizing and holding the eastern Ukraine region over the winter and making them part of Russia (like Crimea) will allow Putin to declare a form of victory. If the Russians are shoved out of the eastern Ukraine before winter (very unlikely) then Putin has lost. If Ukraine seizes the south back before winter then this is a sacrifice that Putin will accept while focusing his "victory talking points" on the eastern region which is now "Russian".
 
gwb-trading said:
Winter will be a time of stalemate in eastern Ukraine.
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That's the conventional thinking but we do not know that.

My impression is that either side will advance when it has the means to do so and that increasingly depends on availability of various weaponry or lack thereof. The trench warfare lines may not move much in the winter. And if Russian troop recruitment and placement in some occupied areas deteriorates in the middle of the winter, I cannot rule out that the Ukrainians might go on the offensive in selected areas. We do not know. We know that lines do not change much where it is all related to trench warfare such as the last eight years in the donbass but there are other fronts and initiatives going on that are not necessarily weather/seasonally impacted.

But if the Ukrainians, for example, get longer range missiles or planes or more himars in the middle of the winter and want to strike out against the Black Fleet, bridges, etc. they would act on that regardless of the season. Ditto for the Russians.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
That's the conventional thinking but we do not know that.

My impression is that either side will advance when it has the means to do so and that increasingly depends on availability of various weaponry or lack thereof. The trench warfare lines may not move much in the winter.

But if the Ukrainians, for example, get longer range missiles or planes or more himars in the middle of the winter and want to strike out against the Black Fleet, bridges, etc. they would act on that regardless of the season. Ditto for the Russians.
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While both sides may strike with missiles, planes, drones, artillery, on-ground military probes, etc. in winter --- it is very unlikely that we will see robust offenses that result in significant change in territory held by each army. This is -- of course -- the conventional military thinking -- but the weather tends to support the reality behind the thinking. Unless one side found a way to greatly outnumber the troops available to the other side while also having the equipment available for a ground offensive which greatly outmatches the other army.

I am just waiting in a few months for Russian soldiers to be writing home begging for winter clothes. Seeing that many came from regions like Siberia this is something that you think their families/friends will be actually able to send them.
 
UsualName said:
You act as if they aren’t actively being murdered by the Russians.
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It is a military conflict and there are casualties on both sides. Russia invaded Ukraine to protect their national interests, this doesn’t justify anything, it’s just the way it is, like any other war conflict, I have made comparisons in the past.
 
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gwb-trading said:
Seeing that many came from regions like Siberia this is something that you think their families/friends will be actually able to send them.
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In theory.

In practice, the sad reality is that many of the kids from Siberia signed up to get 'the big bucks" so that they could buy basics, like warm clothes" for the family back home.

Also sadly, most of the Ruskie soldiers are meeting their clothing needs the old fashioned way these days, which is to take the boots and coats and helmets from "those soldiers who will not be needing them anymore." Of which, there are any these days in their immediate environs.
 
gwb-trading said:
I am just waiting in a few months for Russian soldiers to be writing home begging for winter clothes. Seeing that many came from regions like Siberia this is something that you think their families/friends will be actually able to send them.
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Of course, the thing that is also different or more extensive now- going into the winter- is the vast number of civlians who have needs for housing and clothing and food. It is not as though the occupiers are going to feed them after destroying everything even in occupied areas. They hardly have two potatoes to rub together for themselves. Maybe a rutabaga they are saving for a special occasion.

I guess if you have a woodstove you can heat by scrounging all the framing from destroyed housing. Nice. Also nice if you have a house to go with the woodstove. Always a bonus.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-villagers-describe-russian-troops-/31960860.html
 
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