Russia & Ukraine

[Bugenhagen]

Rule #1 applies but the Russians are signaling big changes to their plans in Ukraine:

View attachment 280985

It was assessed that after a month the Russians simply did not have supplies to continue fighting. This looks to be true considering Russia is saying it’s changing its focus to securing the gains in the east.

The question is, if the Russians do pull back, what does it look like and what will the Ukrainians do?

With those zones largely emptied of civilians the Russians may have to force returns of said civilians to act as human shields when sanctions really start to bite.

The west needs to plan for hunger relief now for a half dozen countries living off Russian and Ukrainian grains.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Rule #1 applies but the Russians are signaling big changes to their plans in Ukraine:

View attachment 280985

It was assessed that after a month the Russians simply did not have supplies to continue fighting. This looks to be true considering Russia is saying it’s changing its focus to securing the gains in the east.

The question is, if the Russians do pull back, what does it look like and what will the Ukrainians do?

Not sure what is meant by "goals were to denazify." If true, is he saying they have given that up or they got rid of all of them or they did not find any nazis or what?

And then what and where to? Latvia and Finland are sort of in the other direction. You ain't gonna take Poland going in that direction, Vlad.

Anyway, Hell of a job Brownie!!!!! True or untrue, On to your next fuck-up. We know you can do it.

Keep them tanks movin'. OR NOT.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

If there is a request list of generals that people would like to see added to the ones killed in Ukraine, I would like to put in a request for this motherchucker.

I have said several times that Putin would go "full Aleppo." Not better way to achieve that I guess than to bring in the general who did go "full Aleppo.:

He is, as they say these days, "a bad actor." Never want to talk lightly about people being killed but there are those times when you know that tens of thousands will live if someone is. He is such a person.



'Why is his face not mutilated yet?': Russian general dubbed the 'Butcher of Mariupol' demands to know why one of his soldiers 'has not had his ears cut off' for failing to wear his uniform properly in chilling audio

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ldier-not-ears-cut-wearing-wrong-uniform.html

 

[gwb-trading]

Rule #1 applies but the Russians are signaling big changes to their plans in Ukraine:

View attachment 280985

It was assessed that after a month the Russians simply did not have supplies to continue fighting. This looks to be true considering Russia is saying it’s changing its focus to securing the gains in the east.

The question is, if the Russians do pull back, what does it look like and what will the Ukrainians do?

As I noted earlier Donetsk and Luhansk area in eastern Ukraine is rich in oil, gas and coal resources. This war from Russia very much is also an economic war to seize these natural resources.

When the Russian start demanding the acquisition of Donetsk and Luhansk for "peace" the Ukrainians should tell them to go to hell -- and the Ukraine should also demand the return of Crimea to stop the war.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

As I noted earlier Donetsk and Luhansk area in eastern Ukraine is rich in oil, gas and coal resources. This war from Russia very much is also an economic war to seize these natural resources.

They are not the smoothest animals on the planet. When it comes to economic resources-infrastructure, the steel mills in Mariupol produced 40% of the steel in Europe. Flat as fucking parking lots now. Guess there were nazis working there.

As I said, that is one of the differences between Xi and Putin. Putin working all sorts of centuries old butthurt issues about Russia plus his own psychological compensating-for-a-small-dick issues. Xi has his own problems but he wants Hong Kong and Taiwan as functioning economic entities too. He does not want to just look out over Taiwan and say "that parking lot is mine now as it should be." There is some of that but he would have to end out there, whereas Putin would start there.

 

[UsualName]

It’s all going according to plan over at the politburo:

 

[UsualName]

As I noted earlier Donetsk and Luhansk area in eastern Ukraine is rich in oil, gas and coal resources. This war from Russia very much is also an economic war to seize these natural resources.

When the Russian start demanding the acquisition of Donetsk and Luhansk for "peace" the Ukrainians should tell them to go to hell -- and the Ukraine should also demand the return of Crimea to stop the war.

We’ll see what they want to do with the so-called “breakaway” regions. Access to the sea and those ports are worth billions in gdp and with the war going like shit and Ukraine having so many well organized veteran soldiers now they are a legitimate force.

The question is can the forces around Kyiv encircle the Russian forces of approximately 70,000 troops and take them out of the equation. If the Ukrainians can free up from fighting in and around Kyiv they can certainly go on the offensive in the east. It won’t be easy though because Donetsk and Luhansk butt right up against Russia so they may be off of the table but taking back Crimea might be a fight worthwhile. That is saying the Ukrainians can actually relieve pressure on Kyiv and the north central part of the country.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

It’s all going according to plan over at the politburo:

View attachment 280995

Hope they do not destroy too much infrastructure there in Kherson.

Good location for a future NATO base.

Excuse, I meant to say Non-member Faux Nato-Lite base.

Don't want to see Vlad's head explode. Or do I?

 

[UsualName]

They are not the smoothest animals on the planet. When it comes to economic resources-infrastructure, the steel mills in Mariupol produced 40% of the steel in Europe. Flat as fucking parking lots now. Guess there were nazis working there.

As I said, that is one of the differences between Xi and Putin. Putin working all sorts of centuries old butthurt issues about Russia plus his own psychological compensating-for-a-small-dick issues. Xi has his own problems but he wants Hong Kong and Taiwan as functioning economic entities too. He does not want to just look out over Taiwan and say "that parking lot is mine now as it should be." There is some of that but he would have to end out there, whereas Putin would start there.

The Russians are regarding that steel factory as “demilitarization.” Obviously it’s not and futile from an arms standpoint because the west is going to arm Ukraine to the teeth for the foreseeable future.

On another note, we have frozen another $100 billion in gold from the Russian central bank so what are we up to here, $400 billion in Ukrainian reconstruction funds?

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

On another note, we have frozen another $100 billion in gold from the Russian central bank so what are we up to here, $400 billion in Ukrainian reconstruction funds?

I don't know where we will end out on that freezing their gold reserves scenario. In general, that sounds like something that will get reversed if Russia does X,Y,Z.

Where it will still hurt him though, is that freezing the gold reserves causes Putin lash out more and more with increasingly reckless comments about seizing foreign assets and assets of any coporation that leaves. That has creditworthiness and business development implications for a generation to come if you even talk about it out loud which he is. The gold thing can be reversed overnight based on some deal. But you can't walk back threats to seize foreign assets and put that genie back in the bottle. His biggest threat now is the economic drain that comes from people and corporations making choices to do not work or do business in Russia even if all sanctions go away tomorrow. Which they are not- but even if they did.

Of course defaulting on your debt payments has fatal economic implications too and he needs the gold to make payments. Round and round he is going to go. He has 150 billion in reserves held in yuans but that's not much given all his needs on the horizon.

What a mess.