Russia & Ukraine

[TreeFrogTrader]

I would t call this a good read but a best case scenario if everything breaks Putin’s way world building exercise. Russia is shutting down car manufacturers, airports, tank manufacturing and its running out of basic necessities like sugar and flour.

Putin gambled and is now in deep with the sharks. He’s paying a higher “vig” than he expected, getting kicked out of swift and getting his “fortress Russia” money taken was not in his plans. And the exodus of major international businesses was a bonus no one even calculated. The slower his special military operation goes the worse the sanctions hurt.

Putin is making things much, much worse with all this talk about seizing/nationalizing corporations/businesses. It is not something you put into the air and then not do it and eventually sanctions are loosened as part of some deal and then you expect to be back.

Nope, even though it is harder to quantify, the "not a good place to do business" and "brain drain" factors are very real even if all barriers and sanctions were to be lifted. Not going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle without some kind of copernican shift, such as Putin leaving at some future date/decade. Although they can make considerable progress in becoming a Chinese vassal state as an alternative but, you know, yuck. Where is the Russian glory in that.?

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

The longer Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, even if the prevail, the less likely I believe it becomes that he can do further excursion westward.

On some days, there are discussions here about the Ruskies running out of supplies, running out of artillery and missiles, running out of troops etc. So what is he going to pulls out his arse to do a land excursion westward beyond Ukraine while strugging to have enough troops to hold Ukraine if he wins, or not having them if he loses?

And he does not want a nuclear war and his Chinese masters defninitely do not want one even though they will let Vlad do a little saber rattling on that.

Having said that though, I do believe that it is in his interest to have enough of conflict with Nato get them all hot and bothered and involved without necessarily wanting to go into an open dogfight. Or we could be there in a couple weeks. As I have repeatedly said, Putin needs a couple more weeks to see how thing is going. Yeh, they are doing clown stuff, but he needs to see what full-Aleppo does to the landscape or what is left of it.

I say that he may want to provoke Nato enough to get them involved because if the Ukrainians won't give him the deal he wants, he will want to draw Nato in sufficient for them to have major skin in the game to pressure the Ukranians on a settlement. Give it a couple weeks.

But Russia doing a land excursion with troops westward beyond Ukraine? They gonna do that with what? I mean other than just a border violation to tweak Nato involvement.

 

[UsualName]

The longer Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, even if the prevail, the less likely I believe it becomes that he can do further excursion westward.

On some days, there are discussions here about the Ruskies running out of supplies, running out of artillery and missiles, running out of troops etc. So what is he going to pulls out his arse to do a land excursion westward beyond Ukraine while strugging to have enough troops to hold Ukraine if he wins, or not having them if he loses?

And he does not want a nuclear war and his Chinese masters defninitely do not want one even though they will let Vlad do a little saber rattling on that.

Having said that though, I do believe that it is in his interest to have enough of conflict with Nato get them all hot and bothered and involved without necessarily wanting to go into an open dogfight. Or we could be there in a couple weeks. As I have repeatedly said, Putin needs a couple more weeks to see how thing is going. Yeh, they are doing clown stuff, but he needs to see what full-Aleppo does to the landscape or what is left of it.

I say that he may want to provoke Nato enough to get them involved because if the Ukrainians won't give him the deal he wants, he will want to draw Nato in sufficient for them to have major skin in the game to pressure the Ukranians on a settlement. Give it a couple weeks.

But Russia doing a land excursion with troops westward beyond Ukraine? They gonna do that with what? I mean other than just a border violation to tweak Nato involvement.

Well i don’t think the Russians would stop at Ukraine if they manage to get a substantial portion of it. Ukraine would be the toughest fight they would have to create a buffer that runs through the southern Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.

We can disagree on this though. Ukraine has turned into quite a clusterfuck for the Russians and they have to have changed strategy by this point.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Well i don’t think the Russians would stop at Ukraine if they manage to get a substantial portion of it. Ukraine would be the toughest fight they would have to create a buffer that runs through the southern Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.

We can disagree on this though. Ukraine has turned into quite a clusterfuck for the Russians and they have to have changed strategy by this point.

Oh, his wishlist is extensive.

I am just wondering where he is going to get the troops and resources for it.

He might want to wonder about that too.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Kremlin gotta krem I guess.


Jailed Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny found guilty of fraud and sentenced to another nine years in prison

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/alexey-navalny-fraud-conviction-russia-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Tsing Tao]

China does not have modern fabs. They import chips as well.
Of course. But to export them you have to produce them, and if, to produce them, you need imported parts that you can't get anymore...

Who are the largest exporters of what you are calling chips?

As you no doubt realize, there are a number of military items that don't require much in the way of semiconductors.

 

[terr]

Who are the largest exporters of what you are calling chips?

US - lots of fabs, Taiwan, Samsung...

As you no doubt realize, there are a number of military items that don't require much in the way of semiconductors.

Yes, they can export lots of AKs. Sophisticated stuff requires imported parts *and* imported machinery to produce.

As I said, UralVagonZavod has already stopped production. Russian only tank factory. Because of shortage of imported parts and materials.

You also need personnel. Estimated 70K IT professionals left Russia in March. Projected 100K more are expected to leave in the next two months.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

This most definitely will not help Russia's efforts to recruit soldiers.

I would think.



Ukrainian doctor tells TV interviewer he has ordered his staff to CASTRATE Russian soldiers because they are 'cockroaches'

• Gennadiy Druzenko, 49, told Ukraine-24 he gave order to castrate Russian POWs
• The owner of a war-zone mobile hospital told broadcast 'they are cockroaches'
• The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case into the comments

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-ordered-staff-CASTRATE-Russian-soldiers.html

 

[UsualName]

Nukes for troops still a possibility…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506276466752995334

 

[Tsing Tao]

US - lots of fabs, Taiwan, Samsung...
Yes, they can export lots of AKs. Sophisticated stuff requires imported parts *and* imported machinery to produce.

So, I listen to you "say" this, and every one of the Class 8 truck producers that we have approached (and we have approached all of them - Peterbuilt, Freightliner, Kenworth, etc) for vehicles tells us that the number one part they lack are chips, and they all source them from China.

Unless they're lumping Taiwan in with China here. And then the next most obvious question is "how many of these countries have joined the international ban on Russia"? Because if not many of them have, then it doesn't matter - because Russia will get what it needs.