Russia & Ukraine

vanzandt said:
If you go by the #'s provided, and I have to assume they're factual as they come from ICE and BPS, the border situation is waay worse.
Inflation>>> oil. Across the board. The supply chain was/is transitory. The lousy policy decisions regarding domestic oil production aren't. So I'm not really regurgitating talking points or sound bites. I'm stating facts.
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supply chain still exists... go to Journal of Commerce which covers supply chain issues...nothing has really changed except a lull during Chinese New Year. when freight and trucking rates are still 5x what they were pre crisis...that does not sound transitory to me.

as for the border...nothing has changed over the past 3 administrations. blaming the current guy is typical shit rolls downhill in politics but lets absolve the guys who came before.

If the keystone pipeline was open..oil would still be $100....a pipeline simply carries oil..it doesn't produce it. Oil spikes are transitory if you want to use that term. The demand supply curve inverted in the covid economic curve and has not stopped since.
 
El OchoCinco said:
supply chain still exists... go to Journal of Commerce which covers supply chain issues...nothing has really changed except a lull during Chinese New Year. when freight and trucking rates are still 5x what they were pre crisis...that does not sound transitory to me.

as for the border...nothing has changed over the past 3 administrations. blaming the current guy is typical shit rolls downhill in politics but lets absolve the guys who came before.

If the keystone pipeline was open..oil would still be $100....a pipeline simply carries oil..it doesn't produce it. Oil spikes are transitory if you want to use that term. The demand supply curve inverted in the covid economic curve and has not stopped since.
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No I know, the supply chain thing is still going on, but it will work itself out eventually.
Oil's the big thing. I'm gonna have to disagree that oil would be $100 barrel either way. There's way more to it than Keystone Xl. Now that one is a sound bite, I'll give you that.
Circling back around to freight and trucking prices, $6/gallon diesel has a lot to do with that.
Absolutely everything we consume is tied to oil. You already know this I know.
I'll give you some figures out of the Permian later when I have a few minutes to get into Platts.
 
vanzandt said:
No I know, the supply chain thing is still going on, but it will work itself out eventually.
Oil's the big thing. I'm gonna have to disagree that oil would be $100 barrel either way. There's way more to it than Keystone Xl. Now that one is a sound bite, I'll give you that.
Circling back around to freight and trucking prices, $6/gallon diesel has a lot to do with that.
Absolutely everything we consume is tied to oil. You already know this I know.
I'll give you some figures out of the Permian later when I have a few minutes to get into Platts.
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Oil will work itself out eventually too you know.... afterall it hit $130 and is now $100.....when quoting gas prices lets not forget the pirce gouging elements going on also. Biden did not do something to make oil go to $100 and trump did not do something to make oil drop during covid. you are too smart to fall into the political bias trap of blaming a U.S. president for a resource controlled by cartels outside of this country. For example the jump from $100 to $130 was purely related to Russia-Ukraine and the disruption of global supply since Russia supplies quite a bit. was a U.S. president responsible for that?
 
vanzandt said:
No I know, the supply chain thing is still going on, but it will work itself out eventually.
Oil's the big thing. I'm gonna have to disagree that oil would be $100 barrel either way. There's way more to it than Keystone Xl. Now that one is a sound bite, I'll give you that.
Circling back around to freight and trucking prices, $6/gallon diesel has a lot to do with that.
Absolutely everything we consume is tied to oil. You already know this I know.
I'll give you some figures out of the Permian later when I have a few minutes to get into Platts.
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Read the article below....

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120721-global-oil-supply-demand-to-find-balance-in-early-2022-ease-pressure-on-prices-eia#:~:text=The agency trimmed its 2022,of 11.18 million b/d.

Global crude oil demand is expected to exceed global oil production for the sixth quarter in a row before supply and demand finds a relative balance in the first quarter of 2022, likely giving rise to limited upward price pressure in the coming months, the US Energy Information Administration said Dec. 7 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

These stock builds should contribute to downward pressure on crude oil prices, and our Brent forecast averages $71/b in 2Q22, $70/b in 3Q22, and $67/b in 4Q22," the EIA said.

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THis was before Russia invaded Ukraine...we got down to $70 by December and Putin start showing his ass... (November 2021 - Satellite imagery shows a new build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, and Kyiv says Moscow has mobilised 100,000 soldiers along with tanks and other military hardware.)

The oil prices were going to stabalize and settle in to $60 - $70 range which is where OPEC likes it v. $40. NOV - DEC putin started sending troops to the border.
 
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El OchoCinco said:
Oil will work itself out eventually too you know.... afterall it hit $130 and is now $100.....when quoting gas prices lets not forget the pirce gouging elements going on also. Biden did not do something to make oil go to $100 and trump did not do something to make oil drop during covid. you are too smart to fall into the political bias trap of blaming a U.S. president for a resource controlled by cartels outside of this country. For example the jump from $100 to $130 was purely related to Russia-Ukraine and the disruption of global supply since Russia supplies quite a bit. was a U.S. president responsible for that?
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If that is Vanny, he is not too smart to fall for bias. Depressing, one would think on a trader site some basic foundation of markets would hold but not even that with the lifelong bullshitters.
 
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Bugenhagen said:
If that is Vanny, he is not too smart.
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just think he does what many here do....settle for repeating the media political cliche which is lazy thinking rather than looking at the economics and global cuases.. that is why people blame a fucktard in the WH for stuff and then say he had nothing to do with it if it is somethign good...... there is no logic in that.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
What you mean is that to change THIS GOVERNMENT is good.

If you thought that your ilk were doing a good job you would not want to change.

But everything they do is el sucko.
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Youre like a 14 year kid who never left his block. A trip around the corner would show you its normal for presidents parties to lose midterms.

On one hand you argue this is all Biden’s fault and if Trump had been re-elected because and I quote “Trump being Trump” then all of the economic, health and geopolitical issues would have been avoided. And at the same time you argue that the people changing the government is indicative of poor presidential leadership while Trump lost the midterms and re-election! Sophmoric. You undermine your own argument.

You claim you’ve got reasons all clearly spelled out previously but the truth is no you don’t. You have beliefs. You believe in things you do not understand. You believe in a personality. Which in truth is fine with me. My youngest still believes in Santa Claus but there’s only so long that will last too.
 
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