Russia & Ukraine

About Russian army:

"Fatigue of RU units "massive". A third has been replaced, but incoming units have even worse quality. Another third has been destroyed, killed or wounded. Re-formation of units doesn't have a good impact on combat capability."

That tracks with the total casualties I have been figuring. By my (fairly conservative) calculations, about 35,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers by today have been killed, wounded or captured.
That's a hell of a number in just two weeks, so I take that with a grain of salt. No doubt the fighting has been more intense than expected, but tens of thousand dead and wounded in two week? I would think we'd be seeing video evidence of some really furious toe to toe battles, not just tank and truck column wreckage. Anybody's guess at this point, but one thing for sure, it's going to get more intense from here as they start what appears to be a full scale artillery barrage of these cities.
 
About Belarus: "...Putin had planned for the Belarusian military to join his invasion (which Minsk denies). But the plan was foiled by a series of resignations by senior military officials, who fled the country and contacted the opposition-in-exile. Moreover, hundreds of young Belarusians of draft age have also fled across the closed borders, which is “dangerous and expensive.”

Yep. He also requested troops from Kazakistan/sp and they said no- when Putin thought he could count on them.
 
Report: Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest.

From Christo Grozev - Bellingcat - "if confirmed, this will be really major news. Beseda and Bolukh are as high as it gets. Beseda was literally in charge of Ukraine intel (= guy who would have misled Putin on Ukraine's readiness to "welcome liberators"). Bolukh additionally in charge of disinformation."

This seems like very shaky info to me but if Putin is going to go down it will be either by the FSB or with the approval of the FSB. And that’s why I am iffy on this report. This stuff could have very easily been put out by anyone to sort create distrust in the Kremlin- which is a good thing but as I said iffy, IMO.
 
That's a hell of a number in just two weeks, so I take that with a grain of salt. No doubt the fighting has been more intense than expected, but tens of thousand dead and wounded in two week? I would think we'd be seeing video evidence of some really furious toe to toe battles, not just tank and truck column wreckage. Anybody's guess at this point, but one thing for sure, it's going to get more intense from here as they start what appears to be a full scale artillery barrage of these cities.

Here are my calculations:

1. Dead - Ukrainians say 12,000+. US CIA estimated 5-7000 a few days ago. UK intelligence thought 8,000. That's a few days ago, the numbers have gone up since then. So - let's say 7,500 dead
2. The ratio of wounded to dead in most conflicts is 3.5 to 1. Let's take the low number. 3.5. That's 26,000 wounded
3. Ukrainians report (they actually have names/ID numbers) 3,000 captured.

Add it together.

Again - 4 Russian one-star generals have been eliminated. More than a dozen colonels. You don't get such high numbers among top officers without the grunts being killed by thousands.
 
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This seems like very shaky info to me but if Putin is going to go down it will be either by the FSB or with the approval of the FSB. And that’s why I am iffy on this report. This stuff could have very easily been put out by anyone to sort create distrust in the Kremlin- which is a good thing but as I said iffy, IMO.

Yeh, I dunno about all the palace intrigues stuff. As Americans we always think that inner chaos leads to the tyrant being overthrown soon. If only.

Having said that, I do believe his hands are sufficiently full now to make him think long and hard about moving on to take another country just yet- which is a desireable goal for Nato to achieve.
 
Here are my calculations:

1. Dead - Ukrainians say 12,000+. US CIA estimated 5-7000 a few days ago. UK intelligence thought 8,000. That's a few days ago, the numbers have gone up since then. So - let's say 7,500 dead
2. The ratio of wounded to dead in most conflicts is 3.5 to 5. Let's take the low number. 3.5. That's 26,000 wounded
3. Ukrainians report (they actually have names/ID numbers) 3,000 captured.

Add it together.

Again - 4 Russian one-star generals have been eliminated. More than a dozen colonels. You don't get such high numbers among top officers without the grunts being killed by thousands.

The problem too is those Russian casualties are not justifiable on the home front. Otherwise, the Russians are tough fighters when motivated and if you told Russians that they lost four times that amount defending the homeland, Mother Russia, it would motivate them even more. No one believes that shiite though, even in Russia, outside the trance-staters. They basically are trying to figure out what the frig Vlad is up to along with the rest of the world.
 
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