Russia & Ukraine

[UsualName]

This is more nonsense. The Ukrainians absolutely have the right to choose their own fate regardless of whether Russia will get mad or not.

The world is not a static place. Countries are constantly changing and the balance between democracies and authoritarian rule ebbs and flows. And yes we are winning right now in Europe. The Ukrainians look at their former sister states of the old Soviet bloc and would like something better for themselves and their families.

We should not be making the strategic decision to keep Ukraine from general well being because Vladimir Putin has a temper. We should support democracies and trade and freedom to make your own choices.

What I will say is the people who want to back down from this challenge for a little bit of security will only feed the Russian bear. Putin’s speech for justification of war was Alden with imperialist philosophy and naked claims to all of the former Soviet states. No one can read that and say Putin or russia wants to stop at Ukraine.

The problem is Russia isn’t militarily built for this and they certainly aren’t able to expand through the political process. So what do they have other than indiscriminate bombings and missile strikes and the threat of nuclear war.

Should we back down from this? Absolutely not. As a matter of fact we should lean into it and try to end Putin with it.

 

[Bugenhagen]

Well that's enough easing into it. Growing up in the 70s and 80s and used to the idea of nuclear war bla bla, suffered through Sting's song, I say its time to say, hey, we all have nukes and you probably want to keep Moscow.

Balls required now, Kennedy showed the way with the Cuban missile crisis. Fuck it.

Call his "me so crazy" bluff and start ploughing some of the 40km roads of Russian forces. If memory serves the SU-25 is Russia's rough equivalent to the A-10. Probably a few knocking around in Poland etc. Its fair that the USSR sphere countries next on the list take a stand with the threat of nukes stimied.

 

[UsualName]

Well that's enough easing into it. Growing up in the 70s and 80s and used to the idea of nuclear war bla bla, suffered through Sting's song, I say its time to say, hey, we all have nukes and you probably want to keep Moscow.

Balls required now, Kennedy showed the way with the Cuban missile crisis. Fuck it.

Call his "me so crazy" bluff and start ploughing some of the 40km roads of Russian forces. If memory serves the SU-25 is Russia's rough equivalent to the A-10. Probably a few knocking around in Poland etc. Its fair that the USSR sphere countries next on the list take a stand with the threat of nukes stimied.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin set off a nuclear weapon in an ocean. They really don’t have much left regardless of what their posturing is and they have a long hard road in front of them.

 

[gwb-trading]

So four days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine let's take a look where things are at...

Most strategic observers stated that the Russian military should have taken over most of Ukraine's major cities within a week -- at least on paper the imbalance in the military forces of the two countries is significant.

Instead the Russian military forces have greatly under-performed. There are citations that the Russian supply lines are vulnerable and being attacked. The Russians having issues with dealing with Ukraine's air defenses. Collapse of Russian morale in some units. Coupled with reports of Chechen tank columns being destroyed while Putin demands that Belarus forces join in the fight to assault to Kyiv.

The Russians are making some progress - entering Ukraine's second largest city, while also targeting fuel infrastructure such as oil refineries and storage depots which can provide the Ukraine military with fuel. However if the Russian forces start to destroy natural gas and oil infrastructure wholesale then they are effectively eliminating one of the key economic reasons they want ownership of the Ukraine.

Reports indicate that Putin is furious with the lack of progress of the Russian forces and their failure to take any major cities. It appears that Russia may have bitten off more than it can chew with Ukraine.

On the home-front things are not going well for Putin. Protests against the war continue in many cities against Putin even after thousands of arrests. More importantly MPs in the Russian Parliament from parties such as the Russian Communist Party that normally support Putin are denouncing his actions, and several of the wealthy Russian elite are calling for peace in Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine has raised the possibility of nuclear conflict with Putin putting Russian nuclear forces on high alert. A move western countries are likely to mirror.

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to meet for talks at the border in Belarus without preconditions. But these talks are likely nothing more than a show for both sides to express their demands and go to the world media to reinforce their demands while claiming they tried.

The sanctions from the EU and other nations continue to be applied. Restriction to Russian airlines, cutting of Swift and other measures. At this point they don't mean much except for getting the Russian elite upset because they cannot visit their estates abroad. The U.S. should take measures to force the Russians to leave their compounds in the U.S. that are typically used for spying -- including Killenworth in Long island.

Ukraine has filed a lawsuit against Russia in the UN international court of justice at the Hague -- which means little. The UN security council could not even vote to condemn the invasion with Russia's veto making the entire organization appear to be the laughing stock that many contend it is. All the Ukraine's President could do is unfollow the world's leaders on Twitter to protest their lack of action.

In my opinion the sanctions from western nations will not do much to stop Putin's aggression in Ukraine. The weapons western nations are providing Ukraine will provide a little help -- but is a classic example of "too little, too late". If the western nations want to stop Putin's aggression in Ukraine then they need to take a more active military role.

The first step should be to establish a "no fly zone" over the Ukraine. Get U.S. and western planes to Poland and other nearby nations. Just like Iraq and the Balkans earlier -- make it clear the "no fly zone" is a humanitarian effort to stop civilian suffering. All planes of both sides will be shot down -- unless they are per-registered approved flights such as humanitarian aide.

As step two target any ground forces firing at the planes enforcing the "no fly zone" -- no matter which side does the targeting (you got to treat both sides equally, eh.)

Finally demand that all military equipment movement be stopped (unless they are leaving the Ukraine) -- destroy any ground military convoys involved in offensive movement.

Is the West ready to do this? No. They do not have adequate planes currently located in the region to enforce a "no fly zone". Nor do they have permission from Poland or other nations to be used as a base of operations for enforcing a "no fly zone" over the Ukraine. These nearby nations probably do not want to be involved in possibly expanding the conflict to their soil so permission is not likely coming. Nor does the West seem to have the will power to get involved directly in a military manner.

As outlined in the post above -- the Western nations should establish a "no-fly zone" above the Ukraine to stop Russian aggression. Sanctions and other measures are not going to stop the Russian attack; it is just a matter of time until the Ukraine falls despite weapons assistance. Yet as I outlined earlier the West does not have the guts to step up and establish a "no-fly zone" -- a failure to act with a "no-fly zone" will only spark Putin to be more aggressive in the future in my opinion. WW2 should have demonstrated a policy of appeasement does not work with dictators.

Mirroring my earlier summary -- the President of Ukraine is calling for a no-fly zone.

Ukraine calls for no-fly zone to stop Russian bombardment
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-isolation-deepens-ukraine-resists-invasion-2022-02-28/

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to consider a no-fly zone for Russian aircraft over Ukraine on Monday after Moscow bombarded the country's second largest city, drawing new sanctions by the United States and its allies.

Russia faces increasing international isolation over its invasion of Ukraine, and hours of negotiations between the two sides on Monday failed to reach a breakthrough to halt the fighting.

Ukrainian officials said Russian attacks in Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people, had killed civilians, including children. In a video address, Zelenskiy said it was time to block Russian missiles, planes and helicopters from Ukraine's airspace.

"Fair negotiations can occur when one side does not hit the other side with rocket artillery at the very moment of negotiations," Zelenskiy said. He did not specify how and by whom a no-fly zone would be enforced.

The United States has ruled out sending troops to fight Russia and officials have voiced concern about further escalating tensions between the world's two biggest nuclear powers.

"A no-fly zone would require implementation," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.

Such a move would require "deploying U.S. military to enforce, which would be... potentially a direct conflict, and potentially a war with Russia, which is something we are not planning to be a part of."

(More at above url)

 

[gwb-trading]

Let's take a look at Putin's latest excuse for attacking the Ukraine which will fail to stick...

• Russia needed be DeNazify the Ukraine government (despite the President being Jewish).
• Russia needed to stop Ukraine from joining NATO.
• Russia says there was a real threat of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons which require a response.

Russia says 'real danger' of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons required response
https://www.reuters.com/world/russi...ukraine-acquiring-nuclear-weapons-2022-03-01/

 

[UsualName]

Why wouldn’t Ukraine want to join Russia?

 

[Bugenhagen]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin set off a nuclear weapon in an ocean. They really don’t have much left regardless of what their posturing is and they have a long hard road in front of them.

I'd expect what's feared most is a high-altitude EMP attack over the sea possibly around Denmark or closer to the UK but.. he takes the same. I'm predisposed to always attack, especially Russians (the grenade in my bedroom thing) but MAD rules still apply as always.

Of course it will just turn into a meat grinder on the ground. Having Boris still as PM in the UK is almost guaranteeing that.

 

[Tsing Tao]

This is more nonsense. The Ukrainians absolutely have the right to choose their own fate regardless of whether Russia will get mad or not.

The world is not a static place. Countries are constantly changing and the balance between democracies and authoritarian rule ebbs and flows. And yes we are winning right now in Europe. The Ukrainians look at their former sister states of the old Soviet bloc and would like something better for themselves and their families.

We should not be making the strategic decision to keep Ukraine from general well being because Vladimir Putin has a temper. We should support democracies and trade and freedom to make your own choices.

What I will say is the people who want to back down from this challenge for a little bit of security will only feed the Russian bear. Putin’s speech for justification of war was Alden with imperialist philosophy and naked claims to all of the former Soviet states. No one can read that and say Putin or russia wants to stop at Ukraine.

The problem is Russia isn’t militarily built for this and they certainly aren’t able to expand through the political process. So what do they have other than indiscriminate bombings and missile strikes and the threat of nuclear war.

Should we back down from this? Absolutely not. As a matter of fact we should lean into it and try to end Putin with it.

What is more nonsense? Can you be specific? You didn't quote anything, so there's no telling what you are speaking to.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin set off a nuclear weapon in an ocean. They really don’t have much left regardless of what their posturing is and they have a long hard road in front of them.

Putin informing his generals that he wants the nuclear situation put on full alert- as a way of getting scary and ballsy.

Meanwhile, the generals are thinking, "guess what KGB Boy, the Americans have been on full alert for weeks, they just don't mouth off about it."

Vlad is a poison and umbrellas guy. Does not mix well with the military sometimes, if not often.

The generals in countries often tend to be warmongers but not always. The Japanese military high command- for example- had that similar "oh shit what is the Emperor getting us into" reaction to the attack on America. They fought the log slog and as viciously as required but all of the senior command knew they were fucked from the beginning and that it would not end well.

 

[Tsing Tao]

As outlined in the post above -- the Western nations should establish a "no-fly zone" above the Ukraine to stop Russian aggression. Sanctions and other measures are not going to stop the Russian attack; it is just a matter of time until the Ukraine falls despite weapons assistance. Yet as I outlined earlier the West does not have the guts to step up and establish a "no-fly zone" -- a failure to act with a "no-fly zone" will only spark Putin to be more aggressive in the future in my opinion. WW2 should have demonstrated a policy of appeasement does not work with dictators.

Mirroring my earlier summary -- the President of Ukraine is calling for a no-fly zone.

Ukraine calls for no-fly zone to stop Russian bombardment
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-isolation-deepens-ukraine-resists-invasion-2022-02-28/

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to consider a no-fly zone for Russian aircraft over Ukraine on Monday after Moscow bombarded the country's second largest city, drawing new sanctions by the United States and its allies.

Russia faces increasing international isolation over its invasion of Ukraine, and hours of negotiations between the two sides on Monday failed to reach a breakthrough to halt the fighting.

Ukrainian officials said Russian attacks in Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people, had killed civilians, including children. In a video address, Zelenskiy said it was time to block Russian missiles, planes and helicopters from Ukraine's airspace.

"Fair negotiations can occur when one side does not hit the other side with rocket artillery at the very moment of negotiations," Zelenskiy said. He did not specify how and by whom a no-fly zone would be enforced.

The United States has ruled out sending troops to fight Russia and officials have voiced concern about further escalating tensions between the world's two biggest nuclear powers.

"A no-fly zone would require implementation," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.

Such a move would require "deploying U.S. military to enforce, which would be... potentially a direct conflict, and potentially a war with Russia, which is something we are not planning to be a part of."

(More at above url)

So if you establish a no-fly zone, you're essentially escalating to commit to engagement, right?