Don't get cocky, Mate.
Even if Vlad folded his tent and went home tomorrow, his occupation of the east and seizure of those regions is an egg that cannot be unscrambled. The price he will have paid though is that he has turned Russia into the new North Korea in the minds of the world. One can say that does not matter to Vlad. Actually it does. Projecting an image of having create a New Russian Empire is what he lives and dies for. FAIL.
The rest of Ukraine is still up in the air because things are not going well on the home front for Vlad. Not well on the battlefield either but he can go scorched earth and reverse that, but scorched earth will not work on the home front. Therein lies his dilemma. As we know, he can suppress and cover up any overt signs of home front problems, but they do create heartburn for him that will not go away. Just as the AFG bodies did in the long run. And Ukraine is steroid levels of magnitude worse for him in that regard.
There are things that work against Vlad that cannot be unscrambled too. ie. his chances of taking the east but also negotiating arrangements where NATO backs off in the region are absolutely fucking zero at this point. The taking the donbass, yes, the other part no. As I said before, "I hope Putin likes more NATO members and more NATO forces permanently stationed in his area, because he is doing all the right things to accomplish that." I mean as a minimum accomplishment. Otherwise, the whole of Ukraine is still in play. But Ukraine and Russia have just agreed to some kind of half-arsed talks. Not sure what there is talk about at this point. But Ukraine might settle for letting him have the donbass and then get the fuck out while Ukraine continues to arm up more to protect the remaining country. Whatever.
Anyway. Vlad taking the pulse at home. Not pretty. Maybe he will declare all of the protesters at home to be drug addicts and Nazis. Might want to work on that plan a little. Ruble going south and the runs on the banks in Russia will not/are not pretty too.
