Russia & Ukraine

[wrbtrader]

War is ugly and there's usually one asswipe instigating for a War. He's easy to ignore until missiles are shot into your country...giving you only one choice...to engage/defend yourself.

I never had any respect for Putin and no matter what happens in the Russia / Ukraine conflict... let's hope that Biden keeps our U.S. troops out of it.

Yet, War is like Covid...what you know today will be different tomorrow. Thus, right now, I don't see our troops getting involved unless Russia uses other countries (NATO countries) to enter Ukraine or accidentally send their missiles into nearby NATO countries.

Simply, as traders, this can easily turn into a black swan event.

wrbtrader

 

[userque]

Putin is.So is Chinas leadership under the right circumstances.

Ok. We disagree here, unless you are referring to some unusual/unlikely "circumstances."

I don't think either wants their land turned to nuclear wastelands; when they've got it so good under the status quo.

 

[userque]

Hitler didn't start off attacking The US,or Russia.He started with weak little Poland.

True. But you and I were talking present tense.

Putin is not currently attacking NATO; nor is he threatening to. There is no evidence to suggest to the contrary.

We have assets in the area in case things change; but we can't conclude that Putin doesn't fear a nuclear confrontation when he's shown no evidence to support that conclusion.

 

[userque]

China talks shit,but they have also been building their military up for years for an eventual showdown with The US.China is not going to attack The US,but they will make their move against Taiwan and Japan when they think the time is right.They will make that move when they think they can stop or beat The US or that the US wont intervene.

As explained with my recent response; we were talking present tense.

Even so, China attacking Japan might as well be an attack on the US. And that's almost true with Taiwan too. But to respond to the rest of your post anyway,

Your point illustrates what I've said in the past (not to you, personally): We should not sit back, and ignore our powerful rivals simply because they are affecting our territory.

Some in these forums want to remain a superpower; yet isolate ourselves from the world. This technique would allow enemies to gain strength/territories/allies/influence/etc.; so if we do eventually fight, they'll be much stronger. I guess if you don't learn how to fight as a kid, you'll never know how to fight.

You can't remain a superpower without getting your hands dirty, winning friends and influencing people, and breaking a few eggs every now and then.

 

[userque]

Both are willing to accept that when they think the time is right.History has shown humans are willing to go to all out war over and over again.WW2 was less than 100 years ago.It will happen again.

Here we disagree. Apples to oranges. Nuclear weapons to conventional weapons.

And your analogy fails to note that there has not been an all out war since the advent of nuclear weapons.

When will a non-mental leader decide the time is right for hundreds of nuclear weapons to land in their nation?

 

[userque]

I think they would have.

I don't think the US would have dropped any if Japan had them.

The only reason they surrendered is because they knew they had no chance against Russia and The US.

I'm kinda thinking it was the nukes.

If Japan had nukes they would have fought until they had no more.

If Japan had nukes, the whole war dynamic would have been different. Again, I doubt the US would have dropped nukes if Japan also had them.

They didn't immediately surrender after being nuked twice.

I suspect that was a 'nuke cease fire' after they'd been given a taste of nukes. I'm sure they knew they had time to think about surrender. That's a very serious decision to make by a nation. The point wasn't to wipe them off the map.

Hitler would have certainly used nukes if he had them.

Yes. He was mental.

 

[UsualName]

A couple of points:

1. US intelligence is exceptional. Putin can’t squeeze a fart without us knowing what he’s doing. This is good that we got the drop on him. Everything from staging attacks to kill lists- the whole way through. We are deep in the Russian government and military. Nice work being done by the intelligence community here, including the military.

2. We will get a good look at the Russian military. We haven’t seen them operate on a large scale in quite some time. Then we will get to see how/if they hold territory. It’s not enough to blow things up, they have to be able control Ukraine and keep it from being an open war zone. Putin said his goal was to “demilitarize” and to “denazify” Ukraine. Let’s see if he can do that.

3. All the best to the Ukrainians. This can draw out or be done today.

Looks like the Russians are going for a quick dislocation of the government by taking Kyiv quickly. They seem to be setting up about 15 minutes outside of the Capitol at a military staging ground.

The Russians also seem to be cutting the Ukrainian forces in the east off from the west and ultimately retreat. You might recall I mentioned the Ukrainians would want to cede ground and attack, this Russian strategy would stymie that and this could get very bloody. I’m kind of surprised if that’s the strategy to be honest but Putin and the Russians don’t seem to be playing games here.

Let’s go Ukraine!

 

[UsualName]

Russian stock market is nearly halved:

 

[CaptainObvious]

All in, or sit it out, no half measures here. We get involved the pain will be real and it'll get ugly right here at home. Basic needs start getting tough to get how long you think it takes for things to turn violent? Bout a day. Lights go out, banking system has glitches, markets tank in a big way...yeah, it all goes to shit right quick. And then if we have troops in the thick of it, we won't be wringing our hands about 4000 dead over a decade, it'll be 4000 dead last week. We are on the brink of something few living Americans have experienced. No time for chicken shit meme's or #this or that crap. I hope that the President has a plan for this and we as a nation can unite for the time being.

 

[gwb-trading]

Russian stocks crash and ruble plunges to record low
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/investing/ruble-russian-stocks-crash/index.html