Russia & Ukraine
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
When I put hit out, like my Capo in Geneva, it gets carried out, like it or not, the 40 day Capo, listens to God the Father, LOLOL, LMAO
Ya know, for anyone else I'd say that doesn't matter, a U.S. President is surrounded by dozens of experts in their respective fields. But after that Afghanistan debacle, who knows.
When I looked earlier the vix was at 29.
But... it's moved by the mindset of the herd. So no tells there. (it never used to be like that)
Hmmm.
I'll have to think about this.
All eyes are certainly on Putin now.
One has to wonder, if all this would be going down if Trump were in office.
That, and $93bbl oil.
We'll let that one go though, arguing hypothetical's with brainwashed binary idiots down here in the cellar is a loser's rout at best; so I won't go there.
It is Superbowl weekend isn't it?
I had forgot about that earlier.
Ahh, Putin has more class than that.
No way he'd pull a stunt during the game.
Unless he's gone complete batshit crazy.
Odd's are that ain't gonna happen.
But I bet via the back channels... Putin's minions floated that to Joe's minions.
If for nothing else, just the dramatic effect of playing on their (all of ours) lifelong Hollywood infused brains.
Whatever.
We shall see.
Putin doesn't want war, so I go back to what I wrote earlier.
It will all be iced over.
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Indeed Putin does not want war. He does however want the whole region east of the Dneiper River as a consolation prize. If he can do that with a quick and limited war that would be hard for him to resist.
It would be like Chris Christie standing four feet away from the buffet at the Golden Corral. He might not do a full slash and burn on the buffet but there is going to be some kind of raid.
I do think that Putin very much wants to see as many Americans as possible leaving. Not because he cares about them but because six months after whatever his current stunt is, he wants to be able to rely on the Americans and their notorious short memory and start unwinding what penalties are upon him. If Americans are killed, then the sanctions are deeper and memories of his wrongdoing last longer. He is willing to swap penalties for turf. That is an easy decision for him.
That's a Big Beef Special right theya.
If Russia comes in, it would a be surgical strike. They probably will hit Kiev itself with a furious assault by air, sea and land. That way, you have the Ukrainians flowing into neighboring NATO countries, causing a huge refugee problem. Putin will cause huge civilians deaths in addition to huge military deaths on the Ukrainians. They will be begging Putin for peace and give him anything he wants. Funny. The Ukrainians could have avoided all this by not joining NATO? They should have seen this coming and that NATO will not be able to protect Ukraine.
Biden is at Camp David this weekend, suggesting conflict preparedness. Has a call with Putin today probably both will be setting parameters for US/Russian engagement for a “more likely than not” Russian invasion. Our most likely point of escalation with Russia during the Ukraine matter will be cyber attacks from and against both us and Russia.
Also NATO missile positioning considering Russia is likely to attack Kyiv and that far west IS a threat to the alliance.
Last is most likely Black Sea engagement, the Europeans are big on this. They do not want to give Russia control of the Black Sea. There is a lot navy activity happening right now. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that NATO forces will defend Ukrainian ports.
These are the major areas for possible expansion of conflict with Russia.
Here’s a pretty thorough walk through of possible attack stages from Malcolm Nance.
SITUATION REPORT FM KYIV: WH actions likely based on Enemy Most Dangerous Course of Action. MY VIEW: US Intell can see all moves but Putin’s GO Order will not be seen quickly.
Definitive signs:
1) Ru Air Force Weapons depots will load up at multiple air bases.
2) Bastion/Kalibr Cruise msls & Iskander Ballistic msls units will receive orders & set up real firing positions.
3) Blinding Jamming/Cyber atk on all cell/internet.
4) armor assault units move to 10km fm border.
5) MASSIVE air strikes & fighter sweeps all over Ukraine.
6) Russian Army SSO commandos & parachute forces may drop/helicopter directly on KBP airport, comms, mm gov & key centers in central Kyiv. Hope for quick capitulation of gov or disorganized response. It won’t happen. Fighting WILL break out Nation wide w/Locals hunting Russians
7) In UKR East Ru Army will try to take Sumy/Kharkiv line down to Luhansk in 1st week. UKR SOUTH could face BASTION missile attacks on Odessa/amphibious & airborne landings. UKR NORTH - Will defend Kyiv/Chernihiv w/their lives & mobilize all citizens to fight/resist. They will.
WEST: Will lay basis for counterattack & relief of Kyiv if necessary. Will husband UKR MiG-29s & Su-37s
FINAL ASSESSMENT: GO ORDER COMES ONLY FROM PUTIN HIMSELF. Prob of attack? 50/50!! No definitive unambiguous order to “execute”seen yet at field level. No reason any of this threat except for what is happening in Putin’s head. Ignore everything else.
Also NATO missile positioning considering Russia is likely to attack Kyiv and that far west IS a threat to the alliance.
Last is most likely Black Sea engagement, the Europeans are big on this. They do not want to give Russia control of the Black Sea. There is a lot navy activity happening right now. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that NATO forces will defend Ukrainian ports.
These are the major areas for possible expansion of conflict with Russia.
Here’s a pretty thorough walk through of possible attack stages from Malcolm Nance.
SITUATION REPORT FM KYIV: WH actions likely based on Enemy Most Dangerous Course of Action. MY VIEW: US Intell can see all moves but Putin’s GO Order will not be seen quickly.
Definitive signs:
1) Ru Air Force Weapons depots will load up at multiple air bases.
2) Bastion/Kalibr Cruise msls & Iskander Ballistic msls units will receive orders & set up real firing positions.
3) Blinding Jamming/Cyber atk on all cell/internet.
4) armor assault units move to 10km fm border.
5) MASSIVE air strikes & fighter sweeps all over Ukraine.
6) Russian Army SSO commandos & parachute forces may drop/helicopter directly on KBP airport, comms, mm gov & key centers in central Kyiv. Hope for quick capitulation of gov or disorganized response. It won’t happen. Fighting WILL break out Nation wide w/Locals hunting Russians
7) In UKR East Ru Army will try to take Sumy/Kharkiv line down to Luhansk in 1st week. UKR SOUTH could face BASTION missile attacks on Odessa/amphibious & airborne landings. UKR NORTH - Will defend Kyiv/Chernihiv w/their lives & mobilize all citizens to fight/resist. They will.
WEST: Will lay basis for counterattack & relief of Kyiv if necessary. Will husband UKR MiG-29s & Su-37s
FINAL ASSESSMENT: GO ORDER COMES ONLY FROM PUTIN HIMSELF. Prob of attack? 50/50!! No definitive unambiguous order to “execute”seen yet at field level. No reason any of this threat except for what is happening in Putin’s head. Ignore everything else.
Biden will be calling from Camp David here within the hour.
I'd like to be a fly on that wall.
Wonder if KH will be in there.
Will it be a video call? I bet it won't, it would be pretty embarrassing if Putin see's the giant flashcards. (And they laughed at Trump for sharpie-gate)
So apparently Putin could care less about Nord Stream 2?
I still think Putin will just chill for now and Biden will spin this as some kind of victory.