Elon Musk’s Starlink Is at the Forefront of a Corporatized Space War in Ukraine
Earth’s orbit is now the domain of companies, not just countries, and that’s changing the nature of warfare.
A Maxar high-resolution satellite shows a close-up view of a Russian military convoy northeast of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 27. Photo: Maxar/Getty Images
By
Ashlee Vance 20 October 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...eopolitical-turf-in-ukraine?srnd=premium-asia
Elon Musk’s
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has just about doubled the total number of satellites in orbit around Earth. It now has as many functioning satellites as all other nations and companies, combined. And they’re raising a lot of very important questions.
SpaceX’s satellites are part of its Starlink network, which beams down high-speed internet service to antennas on Earth. The company’s original purpose was to connect the 3.5 billion or so people who don’t have access to fiber-optic service, catering as well to those who want to watch Netflix and chill at their second home or on their yacht.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, Starlink exhibited an unexpected power over global politics. The Russian military’s initial offensive focused on destroying communications systems throughout the country. Some clever people in Kyiv and Washington had a plan for this and began shipping Starlink antennas to the country in the early days of the war. Starlink allowed the Ukrainian government and military to maintain contact during this crucial period, as they repelled Russia’s opening salvos. In the months that followed,
Ukrainian officials lauded Starlink for allowing them to undermine Vladimir Putin’s best laid plans and to facilitate drone flights and precision missile strikes.
The antenna of a Starlink satellite-based broadband system in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine on Sept. 25. Photographer: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Musk and SpaceX were hailed as heroes, but more recently their roles in the war have come into question. As
Ukrainian forces advance deeper into Russian-occupied regions, they’ve reported that Starlink has been turned off in these areas. In addition, SpaceX briefly requested that the US and its allies
foot much more of the bill for Starlink in Ukraine, but Musk
reversed his position on Oct. 15. He pledged to keep funding much of the operation, including the purchase of antennas and the telecommunications services needed to run them.
All of this is to say, we’re in the midst of the first real space war in which corporate players are exerting major influence over the action on the ground. In the months leading up to Russia’s invasion, governments, analysts, and even the public were provided with thousands of images from satellites owned by companies such as
Planet Labs Pbc and
Maxar Technologies Inc. These pictures clearly showed Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s border during a period when Moscow was denying it had plans to attack. After Putin’s troops did move in, their every
maneuver was captured by the same satellites. Newspapers, websites, and television broadcasts all relied on the photos gathered from space to present their blow-by-blow accounts of the conflict.
Less than a week after the war started, Ukrainian
space mogul Max Polyakov helped form a coalition of commercial space companies to gather and analyze satellite images and data. The results were fed to the Ukrainian military, giving it a flood of intelligence information. Polyakov subsequently received a smattering of commendations from military officials for his quick work.
In the past, only space superpowers would have access to this type of intelligence. Today, Planet and Maxar have hundreds of image-snapping machines in orbit. They’re complemented by a handful of other satellite startups that use a form of radar to see through clouds and gather images at night. Whatever advantage Russia once had in this area has been undermined by the sudden arrival of commercial space companies.
Starlink is a similar story. Communications satellites have existed for decades. It just happens that SpaceX is the most effective maker of both
rockets and satellites that the world has ever seen. It’s invested billions of dollars—with many billions yet to come—to create what amounts to a space-based telecom company able to blanket the Earth in internet. Its capabilities in this area exceed those of any government.
Musk during a news conference at a SpaceX facility in Boca Chica, Texas, on Aug. 25.
Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg
The commercial space industry has been a great equalizer in this war—a turn of events that must eat at Putin and his space-proud nation. When Russia claims not to have bombed a hospital,
before-and-after images of the building are at the ready to reveal the truth. When Russian troops move during the night, their positions are known. And when communication towers are brought down on the ground in Ukraine, they’re backstopped by data beamed from above.
These changes in warfare are made that much more dramatic by the mercurial Musk. Initially, he seemed 100% Team Ukraine. Some of his recent tweets, however, have
parroted Russian talking points, such as suggesting that Ukraine cede Crimea in a bid to end the war. Musk says he’s just trying to help find a way out of this conflict and avoid World War III. But many of his former supporters in Ukraine and elsewhere now view the world’s richest person as
something of a messenger for Putin.
Much has changed since Musk started his rocket company in 2002. As far as patriotic stories go, it’s hard to top SpaceX: Immigrant from South Africa comes to California and restores the US’s once-flagging space program to become the envy of the world. SpaceX has benefited greatly from
contracts with NASA and the
US Department of Defense, and surely it owes the government and taxpayers quite a lot. But without SpaceX, we would be dependent on Russia to get people into space and on
Russian-designed rocket engines to ferry most of our military cargo into orbit. SpaceX has also provided the US with some of the lowest-cost rocket rides available for putting up satellites crucial to its defense,
saving taxpayers many millions of dollars in the process.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying Starlink satellites launches from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., on Sept. 4. Photographer: Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images
The conundrum the US and, really, everyone now faces is that Musk has moved so fast with so much ambition that SpaceX has amassed the power of a nation-state within a private company. Historically, the leaders of military contractors have been happy to do the Defense Department’s bidding during a conflict. Musk, though, is Musk. He’s out there tweeting, changing his mind on the fly, and getting
involved in geopolitics in ways that no government official can control.
Of course, when a Defense contractor does the government’s bidding, it’s usually getting paid. In a series of tweets over the weekend, Musk made his opinion on the matter clear. “The amount SpaceX is requesting for a major battlefield advantage is less than the cost of one new GPS satellite,” he
wrote. “Ironically, GPS doesn’t work on battlefields, as the signal is easy to jam, but Starlink does.”
Asked on Oct. 18 if SpaceX planned to activate Starlink service in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, Musk replied, “No comment,” adding only that “Starlink is not meant for use in offensive military action.”
Based on my recent interviews with Musk, his concern about the war escalating into a nuclear conflict appears to be genuine. Beyond that, he’s baffled that Starlink—or at least paying for it—has become a hot-button issue. SpaceX raised the money and took the risk of building all of these satellites. Now, he reasons, someone ought to purchase the product his company is selling.
Musk might be at the most dramatic end of this debate, but it’s only the beginning. We’re living at a moment when Earth’s orbit is no longer controlled by a handful of governments. This space war will inevitably be the first of many.
