Russia & Ukraine

[BlueWaterSailor]

Yeah, that's why Russians for so long now have been macho strutting around so cocksure of themselves, invincible in their minds eye, but finally when rubber hits the road, they're off running helter skelter with their tails stuck between their legs in all directions outward.
But Ruskies got one thing right, they believe "USA is their enemy and out to get them."
Yup, Yanks hopefully will draw out this war and send Russia once and for all to the poor house. Russia wanted a fight, and now they'll get their wish.
In the meantime, the 'shithole evil West' is where all the young Russians want to flee to, to get the fuck away from their mighty leader Putin.

I don't have any disagreement with that - although I'd put less emphasis on the "Russians" doing the strutting and shift it to where it belongs, onto Putin. Russia's history for more than two centuries has been an unbroken run of leadership that's ranged from abysmal incompetence to outright evil insanity, and its people have lived in a miasma of terror, a country-wide Stockholm syndrome, and hopelessness for that entire time. I feel tremendous pity for them, but unless Russia is struck by a bolt of incredible luck - a modern Cyrus, Louis XIV, Alfred the Great, a Kemal Ataturk, or shit, even a Sulla - seizing power, tearing down the old structures, and building a country worth living in - it's how it's going to stay.

What I do disagree with is virtusa's Dungeons & Dragons-fueled fantasies of Russia being "split up" by some imaginary League of Justice who will Make It Right(tm) once and for all. Guys who'd never faced another man in a knife fight talking shit about forcing a country with the largest nuclear armament in the world to do what it doesn't want to do... now that is cocksure macho strutting.

 

[terr]

I don't have any disagreement with that - although I'd put less emphasis on the "Russians" doing the strutting and shift it to where it belongs, onto Putin. Russia's history for more than two centuries has been an unbroken run of leadership that's ranged from abysmal incompetence to outright evil insanity, and its people have lived in a miasma of terror, a country-wide Stockholm syndrome, and hopelessness for that entire time. I feel tremendous pity for them, but unless Russia is struck by a bolt of incredible luck - a modern Cyrus, Louis XIV, Alfred the Great, a Kemal Ataturk, or shit, even a Sulla - seizing power, tearing down the old structures, and building a country worth living in - it's how it's going to stay.

What I do disagree with is virtusa's Dungeons & Dragons-fueled fantasies of Russia being "split up" by some imaginary League of Justice who will Make It Right(tm) once and for all. Guys who'd never faced another man in a knife fight talking shit about forcing a country with the largest nuclear armament in the world to do what it doesn't want to do... now that is cocksure macho strutting.

First, Russia is already "forced to do what it doesn't want to do" - like withdrawing from Kiev, Kharkiv and other areas it previously controlled.

Second, no one says Russia will be occupied and split up like Germany. That's impossible and no one (other than in the feverish fears of Russian propagandists) contemplates anything like that.

But: Russian "regions" have been getting more defined, the current Russian policy of forming ethnic armed forces is an incredibly polarizing one that hugely strengthens the ethnic identities of those regions, there are already indications of growing ambitions of ethnic independence there, encouraged, quite heavily, by a few of Russia's neighbors to the East - so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that at some point there will be stronger separatist movements that may eventually, actually, separate.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

First, Russia is already "forced to do what it doesn't want to do" - like withdrawing from Kiev, Kharkiv and other areas it previously controlled.

[rolling eyes] Defeats on remote battlefields do not constitute a military occupation, or direct leverage to control Putin. Which is what would be necessary to "force" Russia to split up. In fact, given P's iron grip on the population, you could say it's done him no harm at all: he jails anyone who dares to speak out, and his sycophants just get louder and more strident. And that's not just in the media: the average Russian, the man in the street, is often a fiery defender of P's policies. As I said: country-wide Stockholm syndrome.

It's an all-or-nothing proposition - as I'd already pointed out at the beginning. Either some clique close to the top overthrows/assassinates him and takes over - or things stay the way they are. We've had endless repetitions of this throughout history, and this is not any different.

Second, no one says Russia will be occupied and split up like Germany. That's impossible and no one (other than in the feverish fears of Russian propagandists) contemplates anything like that.

You may not be saying anything like that. virtusa and others like him - yes, they absolutely are. That's precisely what I'm arguing against. And I agree with you: it's nothing but rattle-pated noise driven by paranoia and amplified by Russian propaganda.

But: Russian "regions" have been getting more defined, the current Russian policy of forming ethnic armed forces is an incredibly polarizing one that hugely strengthens the ethnic identities of those regions, there are already indications of growing ambitions of ethnic independence there, encouraged, quite heavily, by a few of Russia's neighbors to the East - so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that at some point there will be stronger separatist movements that may eventually, actually, separate.

No argument with that at all. In fact, I'd strongly prefer to see it happen; the fact that these former republics are still considered part of Russia is a large part of what drives the fantasies of empire builders like Putin.

 

[Cuddles]

World war II showed that it was not like that. Hitler was dead, but Germany still paid a high price after that.
Germany was split up in four parts (France Britain, USA and Sovjet Union). The decision was made to take away any military capabilities from Germany and divide the country into four zones of Allied occupation.

So after Putin the same can happen. Dividing the country and taking away any military capabilities from Russia. So no room for the remaining political criminals that were with Putin.

that's not happening. No one's divvying up a nuclear power anywhere. Best we can hope for is a kingslayer takes out Putin and they retreat all troops from UA territories hoping for western charity/easing sanctions to restore their economy. Our leverage will be maintaining sanctions in exchange for an acceptable system of government.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Putin is falling behind in the empire building business.

Just six months ago he thought he would have Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan all rolled into Russia by the end of this year or next. Not looking good now. Lukashenko would sign up in a minute if it were not for little factors like his people and his military that would oppose him.

I suppose Putin will still end out with Crimea in some kind of settlement but that would be an accomplishment now, whereas it was a given and not at risk at the beginning of the year. Even his buddy Erdogan says that Putin should return Crimea to its "rightful owners" and he does not mean Russia. Ouch.

Also, as discussed a bit before, China will want eastern Siberia back at some point might- be a few years or more, but it is coming once Putin has been fully puppetized. That is another area where the mistreatment of the locals by using them as cannon fodder will only accelerate the poor relations with Moscow. If things get out of hand, Xi might need to do a "special military operation" there to "restore good relations." Little joke there- or not.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

If things get out of hand, Xi might need to do a "special military operation" there to "restore good relations." Little joke there- or not.

Old Russian joke, structured as a news report:

"The Chinese have attacked a peaceful farm on our side of the border and have been repulsed and thoroughly defeated. After it was over, our farmers secured their nuclear armament and flew away on their combat tractors..."

I'd love to see Ukraine get the Donbass and Crimea back. Eastern Russia taken over by China - not so much. China's record is crystal-clear on what they do to native populations, especially relatively primitive ones, when they take over an area.

 

[misterkel]

Reuters didn't post it here in support of a given agenda. You did. And since the term "aggregator" means it didn't originate with them, you are responsible for recycling ancient crap from some random source.

So yeah, an exceptionally poor attempt at dodging.

Reuters is well-known for vetting anything on their site. Yes, I misspoke and you caught it - thank you! Reuters is a syndicator, not an aggregator. It passed review and was approved.
But keep throwing those mudpies. Hee hee - ancient crap (2018) from some random source (one of the largest news agencies on Earth.)
So, are you saying Reuters is fake news, cause... i might agree!
Great stuff. Keep it coming. I'm laughing.

Yes, I agree also that I have an agenda.
Truth is the agenda. Ukraine has a lot of Nazis in positions of power. Azov is a Nazi battalion. They really think Hitler was great. I don't think it has anything to do with Jews, however. They have a different narrative. But you and all these guys can pretend that CNN, etc. are telling the truth when they have shoved a series of lies up everyone's ass for years now. That's your business to believe an organization that is proven, many times, to be lying about many things.

 

[themickey]

hoping for western charity/easing sanctions to restore their economy.

Nope!!!
There's a bill to pay for the carnage and damage. Fuck the charity! Western taxpayer should not foot the bill for Russian aggression, period!

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Yes, I agree also that I have an agenda.
Truth is the agenda.

No, your shilling for Putin is.

Ukraine has a lot of Nazis in positions of power.

Oh yeah, fer shur! A country with a Jewish president is all Nazis. They let him be elected because... yeah, the IMF and secret Protocols of Zion and something something drain blood from babies to make matzos. Hell, he's probably got a little mustache he puts on in private... right?

Dude, get back on that medication. Really, you'll feel much better even before they put the restraints back on and wipe off the drool.

 

[themickey]

.....easing sanctions to restore their economy.

Only after they have been disarmed of all nuclear weapons just like they insisted Ukraine be disarmed.