Ok, I'll leave you to this.
Russia & Ukraine
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
Ok, I'll leave you to this.
You should maintain skepticism! But you should also not be lost in space. There are a great many ways to verify what you consume and ways to test expert assertions, assessments and even opinions.
Your problem is that you think people are as oblivious as you make yourself out to be. Whether or not you believe the stuff you push is beside the point. Your constant undermining of information is not done to verify but usually appears as knee jerk reaction to your priors and biases. That dodgy stuff don’t fly with me.
More nonsense from Putin. Nevermind that Russia has been killing Ukrainians for the last 8 plus years, or that they took Ukrainian lands and tried to push Kremlin style oligarchs to control the Ukrainian government. Russia is just your friendly neighborhood murdering control freak of a neighbor.
There is serious doubt whether Russia has functioning nuclear weapons.
The analysis I have seen is long and involved but TLDR:
1. For thermonuclear weapons you need a plutonium- or uranium-based initiator. For "regular" nuclear weapons the same applies.
2. The life cycle of Plutonium-based nuclear weapons is 15-18 years. Past that the Americiuim poisoning combined with PU-239 spontaneously converting to PU-240 proceeds far enough that the explosion cannot happen. That 15-18 years is for large Plutonium-based weapons. For smaller ones (such as used as thermonuclear initiators) it is 9 months to 4 years. And that is only if they are maintained in temperature-controlled environment they're supposed to be.
3. Uranium-based weapons also have a life cycle, though higher than the PU-based ones due to U-232 vs U-235 ratio that changes over that time. During the activation, U-232 acts faster than U-235 and because of that the detonation doesn't occur properly, causing either a dud or a partial detonation - about 10 times weaker than it is supposed to be. The life cycle of a U-based weapon is not more than 30 years.
4. All Russian PU-based nuclear weapon manufacturing was stopped in 1990-1991. So it is way past expiration. There are no reactors in Russia that can produce weapons-grade PU anymore - the last one was stopped in 2009.
5. All weapon-grade Uranium production in Russia stopped in 1988-1990. So by about 2020 these weapons are past expiration date.
If you don't believe what I wrote here, check it yourself. The information is freely available, you just have to root around for a bit.
The analysis I have seen is long and involved but TLDR:
1. For thermonuclear weapons you need a plutonium- or uranium-based initiator. For "regular" nuclear weapons the same applies.
2. The life cycle of Plutonium-based nuclear weapons is 15-18 years. Past that the Americiuim poisoning combined with PU-239 spontaneously converting to PU-240 proceeds far enough that the explosion cannot happen. That 15-18 years is for large Plutonium-based weapons. For smaller ones (such as used as thermonuclear initiators) it is 9 months to 4 years. And that is only if they are maintained in temperature-controlled environment they're supposed to be.
3. Uranium-based weapons also have a life cycle, though higher than the PU-based ones due to U-232 vs U-235 ratio that changes over that time. During the activation, U-232 acts faster than U-235 and because of that the detonation doesn't occur properly, causing either a dud or a partial detonation - about 10 times weaker than it is supposed to be. The life cycle of a U-based weapon is not more than 30 years.
4. All Russian PU-based nuclear weapon manufacturing was stopped in 1990-1991. So it is way past expiration. There are no reactors in Russia that can produce weapons-grade PU anymore - the last one was stopped in 2009.
5. All weapon-grade Uranium production in Russia stopped in 1988-1990. So by about 2020 these weapons are past expiration date.
If you don't believe what I wrote here, check it yourself. The information is freely available, you just have to root around for a bit.
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Looks like they still have an adequate stockpile...
Production, Testing, and Storage
Russia has an extensive infrastructure of facilities for the production of nuclear weapons and missiles, 93 although it has consolidated and reduced the size of this infrastructure since the end of the Cold War. Moreover, Russia has improved the security of its nuclear weapons facilities through U.S.-Russian cooperation under the Nunn-Lugar CTR program. Russia has about a dozen research institutes and facilities that participate in the design and manufacture of nuclear and nonnuclear components for its nuclear weapons, provide stockpile support, and engage in civilian nuclear and other research.94 Russia, which has a significant stockpile of weapons-usable materials, no longer produces highly enriched uranium or plutonium for use in nuclear weapons. 95
Russia’s Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization Updated April 21, 2022
"Russia, which has a significant stockpile of weapons-usable materials, no longer produces highly enriched uranium or plutonium for use in nuclear weapons"
Which is exactly what I wrote. The stockpile doesn't matter if it is past expiration date.
My gut tells me you are correct. But I am not willing to throw the dice on it unless we have to. And we don't have to over the Ukraine. Sorry.
Deficiencies in the Bundeswehr
Defense Minister Lambrecht pointed out deficits in the equipment of the troops.
An example: “On paper, for example, we have 350 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, of which 150 are actually operational,” reported the minister.“It's no different with the Tiger attack helicopter.Only nine out of 51 machines can take off.
https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/bundeswehr
original text in German
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundeswehr-laut-christine-lambrecht-nur-150-schuetzenpanzer
I am going to make a brief plea here, perhaps even on behalf of others.
And that is that if at all possible, russia-ukraine posts be confined- where possible- to the Russia-Ukraine or Russian Economy threads- and that a new thread not be opened everytime the slightest variation of that occurs to someone. It has worked well but now it is collapsing and people (myself included) end out posting stuff that has already been posted or they miss out on somethng because they are trading and cannot check out all the various- and growing by the day- other threads related to Russia-Ukraine.
Having said that, I had the same request for the Covid threads way back. One of our fair-feathered bro's here having a deep visceral need to open a new thread on each and every new occurence and thought that he has on the topic. I totally lost that one and every day resulted in three new covid threads and it just became of a huge jungle, still growing. Impossible for those trading and just popping in and out but wanting to follow the topic.
I was going to raise this point the other day but decided not to be a difficult child. Nevertheless, I see- and today is an example- duplicate posts and links cropping up because people do not check out all the other similar threads so that is a bad sign- so here we go again.
I will repeat and then leave it alone: The two main threads: Russia-Ukraine and the Russian Economy ones have worked fine, so why go fucky-poo again????????
In other words, CMON MAN!
And that is that if at all possible, russia-ukraine posts be confined- where possible- to the Russia-Ukraine or Russian Economy threads- and that a new thread not be opened everytime the slightest variation of that occurs to someone. It has worked well but now it is collapsing and people (myself included) end out posting stuff that has already been posted or they miss out on somethng because they are trading and cannot check out all the various- and growing by the day- other threads related to Russia-Ukraine.
Having said that, I had the same request for the Covid threads way back. One of our fair-feathered bro's here having a deep visceral need to open a new thread on each and every new occurence and thought that he has on the topic. I totally lost that one and every day resulted in three new covid threads and it just became of a huge jungle, still growing. Impossible for those trading and just popping in and out but wanting to follow the topic.
I was going to raise this point the other day but decided not to be a difficult child. Nevertheless, I see- and today is an example- duplicate posts and links cropping up because people do not check out all the other similar threads so that is a bad sign- so here we go again.
I will repeat and then leave it alone: The two main threads: Russia-Ukraine and the Russian Economy ones have worked fine, so why go fucky-poo again????????
In other words, CMON MAN!
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