Closely Watched Trains
The RF advance shown in this map:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
has been a source of puzzlement to me. Look at the thin finger sticking up north of Kherson. Why leave Odessa unguarded to the rear and wander off into the wilderness to the north? I believe the answer is revealed in the Ukraine railway system map found here:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Ukrainian_Railways_(subdivisions).png
Starting at Kiev, it is clear the main route from Lvov to the eastern oblasts must pass through Kiev. The RF encirclement of Kiev blocks the ability of the regime to reinforce Kiev with war materials.
Look again at the rail map. You will observe a junction between Kiev and Vinnytsia. This junction is located in the town of Fastiv which is presently contested by UAF and RF. You cannot move trains through a conflict zone so this alternate route to the eastern oblasts is also now blocked.
Below Vinnytsia there is a railway line leading to Odessa. But a connection to the eastern oblasts requires going north from Odessa on the rail line to Cherkasy. About 85 miles north of Odessa there is another rail junction. This is the town of Voznesensk which according to the first map in this series, is presently occupied by RF forces.
What does this mean? It means all of the NATO armaments presently accumulating in Lvov have no satisfactory means of reaching the present AO around Donetsk, or any other portion of Eastern Ukraine. The RF has severed all rail connections between east and west Ukraine. The fighting force in the east has no practical means of resupply for equipment, armaments, ammunition, or anything else, including the 16,000 military adventurers reported to be filling the bars of Lvov.
There are further tactical implications. Some observers, notably strelkovii and Saker, have expressed concern over the apparent failure of the RF to close the kessel behind the LOC. There is no need for the RF to hurry. By severing the rail connection between east and west Ukraine the forces on the LOC cannot run, and cannot re-equip themselves if they do elect to run. The best they can do is sit tight in their concrete bunkers and shell the Donbass. They are, for all practical purposes, dead men walking.
Remember all of those shiny NATO supplied armaments presently accumulating in Lvov? Ammunition is heavy. Light arms are heavy. MANPADS are heavy. ATMs are heavy. You cannot move significant quantities of this materials by car. A single truck load will not be of military significance. Some 40 planes are reported to have disgorged cargo in Poland for transshipment to Lvov. By rough estimate that is some 320 rail-cars of material than cannot now reach the Ukrainian forces in the east.
I suggest to you that the RF has won the battle as decisively as did the Wehrmacht on reaching Abbeville in the spring of 1940.
All those MSM reporters and military talking heads breathlessly announcing Russia has lost, or Russia is bogged down, are incapable of reading a map.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/the-sanction-backlash-will-push-the-west-to-accept-russias-demands.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807011fb200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807011fb200d
The RF advance shown in this map:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
has been a source of puzzlement to me. Look at the thin finger sticking up north of Kherson. Why leave Odessa unguarded to the rear and wander off into the wilderness to the north? I believe the answer is revealed in the Ukraine railway system map found here:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Ukrainian_Railways_(subdivisions).png
Starting at Kiev, it is clear the main route from Lvov to the eastern oblasts must pass through Kiev. The RF encirclement of Kiev blocks the ability of the regime to reinforce Kiev with war materials.
Look again at the rail map. You will observe a junction between Kiev and Vinnytsia. This junction is located in the town of Fastiv which is presently contested by UAF and RF. You cannot move trains through a conflict zone so this alternate route to the eastern oblasts is also now blocked.
Below Vinnytsia there is a railway line leading to Odessa. But a connection to the eastern oblasts requires going north from Odessa on the rail line to Cherkasy. About 85 miles north of Odessa there is another rail junction. This is the town of Voznesensk which according to the first map in this series, is presently occupied by RF forces.
What does this mean? It means all of the NATO armaments presently accumulating in Lvov have no satisfactory means of reaching the present AO around Donetsk, or any other portion of Eastern Ukraine. The RF has severed all rail connections between east and west Ukraine. The fighting force in the east has no practical means of resupply for equipment, armaments, ammunition, or anything else, including the 16,000 military adventurers reported to be filling the bars of Lvov.
There are further tactical implications. Some observers, notably strelkovii and Saker, have expressed concern over the apparent failure of the RF to close the kessel behind the LOC. There is no need for the RF to hurry. By severing the rail connection between east and west Ukraine the forces on the LOC cannot run, and cannot re-equip themselves if they do elect to run. The best they can do is sit tight in their concrete bunkers and shell the Donbass. They are, for all practical purposes, dead men walking.
Remember all of those shiny NATO supplied armaments presently accumulating in Lvov? Ammunition is heavy. Light arms are heavy. MANPADS are heavy. ATMs are heavy. You cannot move significant quantities of this materials by car. A single truck load will not be of military significance. Some 40 planes are reported to have disgorged cargo in Poland for transshipment to Lvov. By rough estimate that is some 320 rail-cars of material than cannot now reach the Ukrainian forces in the east.
I suggest to you that the RF has won the battle as decisively as did the Wehrmacht on reaching Abbeville in the spring of 1940.
All those MSM reporters and military talking heads breathlessly announcing Russia has lost, or Russia is bogged down, are incapable of reading a map.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/the-sanction-backlash-will-push-the-west-to-accept-russias-demands.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807011fb200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807011fb200d
