Yes, Russia has the advantage in a war of attrition. However, it may be the cost of "Winning" or keeping Ukrainian territory is more than long term benefits. Think of it. Permanent Western sanctions on Russia with limited tourism and likely ongoing partisan attacks by Ukrainians within Russia while the rest of the world continues its progress. Under this scenario, Russia falls ever further behind China and the West Economically, technologically, and eventually militarily. It might be if there is no Ukraine, there is no Russia. What happens long term when Russia, a country twice the size of the United States becomes ineffective who happens to share borders with a country who is heavily populated, is driven, and effective?
The core part of Russia has more a connection with Europe historically and culturally than China. I'm not suggesting China get excluded in any way. However, at some level, it seems Russia is attempting to cannibalize their neighbor in spite of Russia's ample, but way underutilized natural resources and territory. The path towards utilizing those resources and keeping up with developed countries is through peace. The old methods are becoming less effective in our modern, well connected world. For a few percent increase in land, Russia is willing to give up over 10% of their whole GDP annually, indefinitely? How does that make economic sense? This rough calculation does not even consider ongoing costs of the war. These costs are are likely to increase from current levels. While the cost of the war in Russian lives lost and disabilities may not be the top concern right now, war weariness may increase civil unrest, especially if more Russians begin to feel they have little to lose. If a tipping point is reached, things can move very quickly, beyond salvage. There are likely forces that are actively attempting to cause that tipping point to be reached even sooner, potentially causing another breakup of Russia and the instability potentially affecting all that may come with it.
The cost of Russia "Winning" has been discussed. Now let's consider the benefit of "Losing" the war has for Russia. For the return of lands back to Ukraine or as negotiated, sanctions against Russia are removed, tourism returns, war costs ceases, partisan activities reduce, and economic opportunities, either directly or indirectly, may exist in rebuilding Ukraine. Lives and disabilities are saved, maybe even a country. Or two. Or all.
The path we are on will continue to cause losses for all, some more than others. This is evident. Change the path and we change the inevitable consequences of the continuation of this futile war.
