I don't actually believe that Putin will be derailed by illness in the short term. Certainly he has some medical issues -- but I think it is far more likely that he dies from the hand of his fellow Russian cronies rather than from illness. Not that anyone in his inner circle who replaces him would be any better.
BTW - Putin has such a fine tan.
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It is not necessarily either/or Putin or No-Putin. There is also the possibility of a diminished Putin-Lite if the Duman, the hardliners, the military whatever tinker with his powers.
Russian history shows that they little ways of keeping a person in office but moving him out gradually by taking certain powers away from him.
They did it when Tzar Nicholas was fucking up in WW1. They let him stay in power but took military command away from him because Russian losses on the front were too great. Of course he had problems on the home front too. The Bolsheviks took over not long after and killed him and everyone that he had made his previous deal with.
Then they did the same thing to Gorby. He went on a little vaca to the Black Sea and they had a little coup. But they decided that did not have a good look to it, so they let Gorby come back but stripped him of various military and executive powers to weaken him. And then moved him out a little bit down the road.
I could see something like that with Putin if he does not get his sh#t together. He remains but the hardliners and others start "adjusting" his powers. But then they agree to let him stay as long as he does not run in 2024. I mean the next election is just one year away and the election of course is a joke, but it would be a graceful exit point. I mean if things sh#t the bed but they wanted to put a better look on it.
And then there are variations on that where, one of the hardliners decides to run for president and Putin has an accident along the way. Y'all know accidents happen a lot in Russia. They obviously need more workplace safety training or something.
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