US and UK warned about it, so its unlikely Ukraine was responsible.
If i'm a ruskie about to engineer a false flag, i'd run a rumor in the radio chatter, let the west pick it up and accuse them of knowing. I think they dismantled some ISIS cells from that warning tho so it's prolly still ISIS.
Or for that matter simple logic. If Ukraine was interested in attacking Russian civilians en-masse the same way as Russia attacks Ukrainians, they would have killed thousands of Russian civilians by now. Instead, e.g. Ukrainian drones are exclusively targetting military, infrastructure, or otherwise very specific targets (e.g. intelligence related). There's nothing to gain from stirring up a revenge sentiment against Ukraine (for Ukraine that is).
Without other context I would have guessed islamists but the timing suggests false flag (and the Kreml has a history of that) to enable greater mobilization in Russia.
Kremlin announced new large units to be mobilized yesterday so maybe...