Russia Liquidates Its US Treasury Holdings

[sle]

And also what was the period for the holding report you mention?

It's the international holdings reports (it's monthly, for May) - bring it up on your Bloomberg and read it Russia sold about 50 yards in April and apparently got rid of pretty much everything in May, thus it dropped from the foreign holders report completely.

Your point is?

That the overseas flows don't seem to explain the direction of the bond market (at least not this time around). This said, overall purchases of US assets (different report) seem to be down a fair bit (230 yards in April down to 70 in May). Not trying to argue any view in particular, just throwing in some data points.

 

[Maverick1]

It's the international holdings reports (it's monthly, for May) - bring it up on your Bloomberg and read it Russia sold about 50 yards in April and apparently got rid of pretty much everything in May, thus it dropped from the foreign holders report completely.


That the overseas flows don't seem to explain the direction of the bond market (at least not this time around). This said, overall purchases of US assets (different report) seem to be down a fair bit (230 yards in April down to 70 in May). Not trying to argue any view in particular, just throwing in some data points.

So, we know that:
1. net flows into the bond market in May were positive
2. yields rallied despite 1. above from 2.90 to 3.10 at peak

And you think idiosyncratic flows had no explanatory power? I think the opposite is more likely: Russia's unloading greatly influenced the big move above 3% that everyone was watching... it just shows the fickle nature of things. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Fed would like to think that it's influencing inflation, but reality sometimes marches to the beat of a different drummer (deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs etc.)

Yes, the reduction in purchases of US assets more generally bodes poorly for BOP. btw, not committed to any particular view either

 

[sle]

And you think idiosyncratic flows had no explanatory power? I think the opposite is more likely: Russia's unloading greatly influenced the big move above 3% that everyone was watching... it just shows the fickle nature of things. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Fed would like to think that it's influencing inflation, but reality sometimes marches to the beat of a different drummer (deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs etc.)

It's very easy to find plausible explanations post hoc, but ad hoc one would have thought flows some predictive power.

I fully agree on the Fed's illusions about inflation. This said, inflation is a tricky subject - seems like we have deflation in things we want and inflation in things we need, or something like that.

 

[zdreg]

It's very easy to find plausible explanations post hoc, but ad hoc one would have thought flows some predictive power.

I fully agree on the Fed's illusions about inflation. This said, inflation is a tricky subject - seems like we have deflation in things we want and inflation in things we need, or something like that.

you must be talking about yachts. people want to own yachts but at the current time it is not
necessary. there is, however, a survival service that guarantees a seat on ships near major cities if one is forced to leave because of enemy attack.

in any case, as the old saying goes, if you have to ask the price of the yacht you cannot afford it.

 

[sle]

you must be talking about yachts.

I know nothing about yachts, but it seems like anything that we all "desired" as kids is pretty cheap right now

 

[maxinger]

I don't see any major impact to ZB T bond.
price hovers around 144 - 145 evel.
day range has been rather small, and volume wise, not much change.

 

[fordewind]

Why took it so long?Should`ve been done years ago.And not a single russian should pay the loan to the Fed.

 

[Humpy]

I think the US should worry as Dump goes around the world insulting any and sundry. They don't like it and will retaliate. The US's debt is massive and less people want to buy it. The Dump fans will say fake news or no problem as the US can print its way out of that one.

It can only get worse all round because of one self declared genius !!

 

[zdreg]

I think the US should worry as Dump goes around the world insulting any and sundry. They don't like it and will retaliate. The US's debt is massive and less people want to buy it. The Dump fans will say fake news or no problem as the US can print its way out of that one.

It can only get worse all round because of one self declared genius !!

Your first paragraph has something worthwhile to say.

Your 2nd paragraph reveals an obsession. why reveal it? people may dismiss your implied insightful thought about proponents of printing money to extinguish debt.

 

[fordewind]

I think the US should worry as Dump goes around the world insulting any and sundry. They don't like it and will retaliate. The US's debt is massive and less people want to buy it. The Dump fans will say fake news or no problem as the US can print its way out of that one.

It can only get worse all round because of one self declared genius !!

Trump went down Putins route, mimicking every single Putins caugh, and that will end up ugly for the US.Puting always wanted to be a businessman, Trump always wanted to be a politician.Putin`s become both.Trump didn`t become a politician yet.